2023 Novice Chasers

[Ice]

The thing is AI beat a weak Supreme, although admittedly he monstered them. But he was also a year older than most of that field. How much more improvement is to come from him? Plus the interrupted season last year, I'm prepared to put AI to the back of my mind until entries & performances prove me otherwise

Totally agree with you here, Appreciate it and another nine year old, thyme hill are two horses i won't be backing at the festival next year, mainly due to the age but also the 3 seasons th has spent over hurdles.

 

[charlie]

Banbridge @ 20/1 for the NHC ticks loads of boxes IMO and I just have to add him. Reasons:

• Owned by a man who is 3/3 over 5 years (Stattler, Galvin, Rathvinden). That in itself is a big indicator Banbridge will eventually end up here.
• He's by Doyen out of a well bred Presenting mare so will appreciate a trip.
• His chase debut was absolutely superb. Faultless jumping and won easily doing everything effortlessly.
• He has a Cheltenham win on his CV winning the Martin Pipe, a race that produces lots of quality staying chasers - so we know he handles Cheltenham.
• He goes on good or soft ground which takes conditions on the day out of play.

All things considered, I think he's a very solid addition or starting point for the NHC at this early stage. An awful lot to like and I'm actually a little bit surprised he's 20's. If he were trained by Willie I genially think he'd be more than half that.

 

[billymag]

Totally agree with you here, Appreciate it and another nine year old, thyme hill are two horses i won't be backing at the festival next year, mainly due to the age but also the 3 seasons th has spent over hurdles.

Fair enough thanks for the comments some good points. Appreciate It being a 9 year old is a bit of an odd one but the age wouldnt put me off because there are reasons why he hasnt had a chasing career as of yet. The finishers in behind in his Supreme arent world beaters but he had Blue Lord well covered and was going to easily beat him and he's a 156 rated chaser. I would like to see an entry though first, if thats possible with this kind of bet.

 

[Native River]

I can't help but feel Monmiral could be too big a price in the Novice Chase markets.

There's 2 big issues with him, first being trained by Paul "I hate Cheltenham" Nicholls and secondly, what race. Trainer's already stated Henry VIII as a potential early season target and he's been mainly over 2 miles, but always says how he is a staying chaser and excited about him and spoken of him as a Hitman type. This would make me maybe say if he was to turn up at any festival race it would be Turners over Arkle. I think you can rule the Brown out due to him showing a turn of foot over 2m and the sorts of French bred horses Paul buys don't tend to be the hardcore stayers. This coupled with the fact Hitman started over 2m before going 2 and a half later in his novice season, for same connections, makes it look more the likely.

I've had a look back over last few years and in last 6 years Paul has had 0 runners in the Arkle, which gives further weight to maybe ignore, that being said I can't recall of a sheer classy 2m novice hurdler he has had recently. He has however sent one to the Turners in 4 of those years (saint sonnet, capeland, modus, & politlogue). This to me screams that if Monmiral is to go anywhere its the Turners.

When I look in the market of that race for the English horses you have above him the following:

Jonbon - fine could come here can't make any case against it
Thyme Hill - won't be here, out and out stayer
Gelino Bello - talked up as the staying chaser star for Nicholls so if he came Cheltenham would be Brown you would suspect, or even skip for Aintree anyway
North Lodge - King's already said he's staying over hurdles this year due to inexperience
Hillcrest - stayer all day long
West Cork - Dan's quotes about possible chasing haven't been too bullish so I get the feeling
McFabulous - we already know he needs RH and flat tracks so won't be showing up

That means that above him in the betting from a British perspective is just one horse that realistically may turn up at the Turners and that is Jonbon. The Irish trainers seem to use this race as an after thought towards end of the season when they know more about their trainers but thats tricky one to work out at this time, especially with the smaller field numbers too.

To me this makes 33/1 seem far to big a price and despite being with the man who always skips Cheltenham, does make me rather temped to throw some free bets on him as you would think he should come on for a Fence and could well prove to be one of the better over shorter distances on this side of the Irish Sea.

 

[isitmarchyet]

I suppose another of the British horses to consider is Lac De Constance for Skelton. Highlighted in JTF and OJA as one to watch, he's going chasing and could be an outsider for Arkle/Turners and will likely be a decent EW price. Seems like they're going to take it quite easy with him though, so not sure how likely Cheltenham will be. But one to keep an eye on if you're making a book.

 

[Eggs]

I suppose another of the British horses to consider is Lac De Constance for Skelton. Highlighted in JTF and OJA as one to watch, he's going chasing and could be an outsider for Arkle/Turners and will likely be a decent EW price. Seems like they're going to take it quite easy with him though, so not sure how likely Cheltenham will be. But one to keep an eye on if you're making a book.

….Skelton very positive about him in his stable tour. He does say, if he’s good enough to run in the Scilly Isles, he’ll miss Cheltenham & head to Aintree.

 

[YoungHustler]

Surprised that 20/1 is freely available on Thyme Hill ahead of his (probable) debut over fences on Friday. He’s the highest rated horse going novice chasing, and if he jumps really well he’ll deservedly shorten. There’s also only one possible target (BANC); he won’t go shorter and if he’s not good enough for the open grade ones then surely they’ll send him back hurdling. Of all the rubbish prices around, this actually feels like an okay one as you can bet each way, albeit highly likely there’s something a bit classier than him come March.

I agree with you and have also backed him. TH is a top class hurdler who has been placed in the last 3 festivals(within 3l of winner) so he clearly likes Cheltenham. If he takes to fences, he won't be too far away come March imo.

 

[YoungHustler]

Banbridge @ 20/1 for the NHC ticks loads of boxes IMO and I just have to add him. Reasons:

• Owned by a man who is 3/3 over 5 years (Stattler, Galvin, Rathvinden). That in itself is a big indicator Banbridge will eventually end up here.
• He's by Doyen out of a well bred Presenting mare so will appreciate a trip.
• His chase debut was absolutely superb. Faultless jumping and won easily doing everything effortlessly.
• He has a Cheltenham win on his CV winning the Martin Pipe, a race that produces lots of quality staying chasers - so we know he handles Cheltenham.
• He goes on good or soft ground which takes conditions on the day out of play.

All things considered, I think he's a very solid addition or starting point for the NHC at this early stage. An awful lot to like and I'm actually a little bit surprised he's 20's. If he were trained by Willie I genially think he'd be more than half that.

I was debating Banbridge but you've convinced me! :applouse:

 

[opatcho]

Appreciate It
Thought on this fella.

Comment in another thread has made me think... are the likes of Jonbon and those finishing down the pack in the supreme actually any good - those who have Constitution Hills with lengths beaten next to their name

AI has course and fez form, was still backed in heavily for the champion hurdle considering he had an interrupted season. Ran fairly well for most of the way

Anyone sticking with the likes of AI and Ferny Hollow. I'd be more tempted with AI over FH at this stage, given (at least) we've seen him run at the fez

Late night random thoughts

 

[That Horse]

Given previous absences plus the skullduggery that went on with Ferny Hollow before he was confirmed as injured last season, it'd have to be at least NRNB before I would put money on him.

No idea what Appreciate It's target will be, so maybe one once stable tour gives an idea of what the aim is

 

[Kevloaf]

Appreciate It
Thought on this fella.

Comment in another thread has made me think... are the likes of Jonbon and those finishing down the pack in the supreme actually any good - those who have Constitution Hills with lengths beaten next to their name

AI has course and fez form, was still backed in heavily for the champion hurdle considering he had an interrupted season. Ran fairly well for most of the way

Anyone sticking with the likes of AI and Ferny Hollow. I'd be more tempted with AI over FH at this stage, given (at least) we've seen him run at the fez

Late night random thoughts

If Appreciate It hadn't been off, and we were talking about the horse that'd just won the Supreme and it was this season him going novice chasing, I genuinely would have him fav for every single race... I think he was going to be a star.

Unfortunately, the injury, subsequent run and now age, all coupled with his curse of being plausible at any trip, means I can't back him with any degree of confidence.

I absolutely would LOVE him to take to fences and just look fantastic, but I'm willing to let him run first time and take whatever disgusting price I get, as I fear we'll never see his peak now.

 

[opatcho]

I absolutely would LOVE him to take to fences and just look fantastic, but I'm willing to let him run first time and take whatever disgusting price I get, as I fear we'll never see his peak now.

Yup, typically, all good points
Have often sided with familar names over 1st season chasers, which has often been a losing approach. "Stick with the improvers"

 

[charlie]

If Appreciate It hadn't been off, and we were talking about the horse that'd just won the Supreme and it was this season him going novice chasing, I genuinely would have him fav for every single race... I think he was going to be a star.

Unfortunately, the injury, subsequent run and now age, all coupled with his curse of being plausible at any trip, means I can't back him with any degree of confidence.

I absolutely would LOVE him to take to fences and just look fantastic, but I'm willing to let him run first time and take whatever disgusting price I get, as I fear we'll never see his peak now.

Don't wait!!! I think you can be a lot more confident in AI than this Kev!

The age thing is going to be overplayed for months. 9 year olds have won the Arkle before and only 6 have tried in the last 10 years, lots of which had no chance anyway (so I don't think its too statistically relevant).

We all know the Arkle is a natural novice stepping stone to the QMCC, but a horse doesn't know which race they are running in do they! :welcoming:

In the last 20 years six 9 year olds, two 10 year olds and an 11 year old have won the QMCC. Whilst its not conventional for a 9 year old to take in an Arkle, we're dripping in evidence that horses AI's age can blitz round Cheltenham over 2m at a championship pace so for me, bring it on.

I also think the Champion Hurdle run is a significant indicator as to his overall wellbeing. He was obviously well enough to go and they thought he'd win as the yard backed him into 100/30 against a superstar. That would demonstrate to me he was largely fine last year and it was just a minor issue. He didn't pull up either, he clearly just got tired, so thinking forward you'd have to be more optimistic than pessimistic wouldn't you?

I'll be gutted if he doesn't go chasing and to the Arkle because I like you think he could be special.

Here is a question - if Willie said today (after having taken some crack) 'Appreciate It will go to the Arkle' what price would be be?

 

[Exar Essay]

Here is a question - if Willie said today (after having taken some crack) 'Appreciate It will go to the Arkle' what price would be be?

6/1 immediately, 9/2 within 24 hours.

 

[Eggs]

6/1 immediately, 9/2 within 24 hours.

…currently 6-1 a/r with Hills.

 

[Quevega]

Don't wait!!! I think you can be a lot more confident in AI than this Kev!

The age thing is going to be overplayed for months. 9 year olds have won the Arkle before and only 6 have tried in the last 10 years, lots of which had no chance anyway (so I don't think its too statistically relevant).

We all know the Arkle is a natural novice stepping stone to the QMCC, but a horse doesn't know which race they are running in do they! :welcoming:

In the last 20 years six 9 year olds, two 10 year olds and an 11 year old have won the QMCC. Whilst its not conventional for a 9 year old to take in an Arkle, we're dripping in evidence that horses AI's age can blitz round Cheltenham over 2m at a championship pace so for me, bring it on.

I also think the Champion Hurdle run is a significant indicator as to his overall wellbeing. He was obviously well enough to go and they thought he'd win as the yard backed him into 100/30 against a superstar. That would demonstrate to me he was largely fine last year and it was just a minor issue. He didn't pull up either, he clearly just got tired, so thinking forward you'd have to be more optimistic than pessimistic wouldn't you?

I'll be gutted if he doesn't go chasing and to the Arkle because I like you think he could be special.

Here is a question - if Willie said today (after having taken some crack) 'Appreciate It will go to the Arkle' what price would be be?

Let's also not forget he managed to get a 12yr old novice to go off 3-1 Favourite for the Turners and finish a length back in third.
Age isn't a factor for me at 9yrs old.
Although the 12yr old had no chance :highly_amused: - just.

 

[charlie]

Let's also not forget he managed to get a 12yr old novice to go off 3-1 Favourite for the Turners and finish a length back in third.
Age isn't a factor for me at 9yrs old.
Although the 12yr old had no chance :highly_amused: - just.

Very good point! Too many horses win in an incredible fashion at 9 years old for that to be a factor IMO

 

[FinalFurlong91]

8 and 9 are a horses peak ages aren't they

Completely agree that isnt a reason to not back appreciate it

I see him as a very live chance for the turners which if Sir G goes to the arkle is a very open race.

The injury is the worry not the age for me

Being by Jeremy would worry me a little for both of them though, there's a few dodgy jumpers of a fence on his best chasers list

 

[Kevloaf]

8 and 9 are a horses peak ages aren't they

Completely agree that isnt a reason to not back appreciate it

I see him as a very live chance for the turners which if Sir G goes to the arkle is a very open race.

The injury is the worry not the age for me

Not all horses peak at 8 or 9 though, and there would be more examples of horses not hitting the potential after injury than getting back to match their best? (Also a generalisation on my part)


charlie - they're fair points, for me though the Appreciate It before injury, and the run, despite the confidence, means he isn't the star I think he was in the Supreme... you can see it as a positive run, but for me, I would have thought he'd win it, if back to his Supreme level....

Ultimately, that might be good enough to win an Arkle, but at 6/1 any race, when all the other trips are feasilble, I wouldn't back now, and couldn't risk 10/1 for the specific target.

If I'm wrong, I'll be able to recover and suck up the shorter price.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Not all horses peak at 8 or 9 though, and there would be more examples of horses not hitting the potential after injury than getting back to match their best? (Also a generalisation on my part)


charlie - they're fair points, for me though the Appreciate It before injury, and the run, despite the confidence, means he isn't the star I think he was in the Supreme... you can see it as a positive run, but for me, I would have thought he'd win it, if back to his Supreme level....

Ultimately, that might be good enough to win an Arkle, but at 6/1 any race, when all the other trips are feasilble, I wouldn't back now, and couldn't risk 10/1 for the specific target.

If I'm wrong, I'll be able to recover and suck up the shorter price.

I think waiting is definitely the best option

Horses who get injured once and miss pretty much an entire season are generally not good for the ante post profit and loss

I have him backed but with free bets so no financial loss if it happens again. Wouldnt risk actual cash on him at this stage.

Will go in again if he impresses on his belated chase debut.