2023 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Lobos]

Just re watched Chemical Energy demolition job at Cheltenham in October. Masterclass staying performance. Absolutely destroyed Mahler Mission by 62 lengths into 2nd place giving him 5lbs. A repeat of that will see him win. Well worth another watch.

 

[Madmoose]

Just re watched Chemical Energy demolition job at Cheltenham in October. Masterclass staying performance. Absolutely destroyed Mahler Mission by 62 lengths into 2nd place giving him 5lbs. A repeat of that will see him win. Well worth another watch.

The ground being soft is a concern and that win was a one off fluke in my opinion, Mahler Mission came on bundles since that 3 runner affair.

GDM on his graded form should piss this.

 

[Lobos]

The ground being soft is a concern and that win was a one off fluke in my opinion, Mahler Mission came on bundles since that 3 runner affair.

GDM on his graded form should piss this.

Not sure ground will be an issue. The massive improvement he showed in October was down to him stepping up in trip imo and he can only improve again by going further. GDM has the class but he's not keen on winning similar to last year's fav. He may find Gordon's horse too good here.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Not sure ground will be an issue. The massive improvement he showed in October was down to him stepping up in trip imo and he can only improve again by going further. GDM has the class but he's not keen on winning similar to last year's fav. He may find Gordon's horse too good here.

Ground is definitely an issue

It's why he's drifting like a barge

 

[Mighty]

Ground is definitely an issue

It's why he's drifting like a barge

Chemical Energy?

 

[Kevloaf]

High Taylor has put up Mahler Mission .... at 5/1

Currently 7/1

https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/bl...ps/hugh-taylor

My tissue for the National Hunt Chase (5.30) had Gaillard Du Mesnil at evens, MAHLER MISSION at 5-1, and 10-1 bar, and whilst I couldn’t argue with anyone suggesting the favourite is the likeliest winner, an each-way bet on Mahler Mission looks the way to go at the current prices.

He made an inauspicious start to his chasing career here last November when finishing a long way behind today’s rival Chemical Energy, but his jumping technique appears to have improved significantly since then (also reportedly had his soft palate cauterized following that run).

He has improved with each subsequent run, readily beating Tenzing on soft ground at Navan two outings ago, then going down only narrowly to Churchstone Warrior in a Grade 2 event over the same course and distance, with his rider unable to claim his 5lb allowance in that race.

Gaillard Du Mesnil beat Churchstone Warrior comfortably in a Grade 1 event in December, though it’s not impossible he had an advantage by racing wider than his rival that day. Nonetheless, he’s the right favourite, but if Mahler Mission jumps as efficiently as he did last time, he looks to have sound place claims at least in a race where one or two of the others that are relatively prominent in the betting might have stamina doubts or a question mark if the ground gets really testing.
​

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Chemical Energy?

Yeah

Ground definitely a huge issue

 

[Lobos]

Yeah

Ground definitely a huge issue

We'll find out soon enough!!

 

[charlie]

We'll find out soon enough!!

I don't think the ground will be as big an issue as people are making out. He's won on yielding/soft before in Ireland and thats probably what we call soft ground. It's not like its heavy going and I suspect Codd will keep him wide in search of fresh ground. If the ground was a massive issue they'd have pulled him and put Codd on MC, but they haven't. That could be stubbornness or them just chancing it, but its a good sign IMO. The other thing I'd add is he didn't look to be hating the ground LTO either, he just wasn't fit. He travelled fine, jumped well in the main, just got tired.

 

[Lobos]

Agree totally Charlie. Said before that his imperious performance at Cheltenham in October was down to the step up in trip and had nowt to do with the good ground. He's a big, big danger to GDM. I'm not entirely convinced at all that GDM will stay the 3m 6f. To me, he looked the winner turning in in the Irish National but didn't see it out. It had nothing to do with the weight he was carrying that day.

 

[charlie]

Agree totally Charlie. Said before that his imperious performance at Cheltenham in October was down to the step up in trip and had nowt to do with the good ground. He's a big, big danger to GDM. I'm not entirely convinced at all that GDM will stay the 3m 6f. To me, he looked the winner turning in in the Irish National but didn't see it out. It had nothing to do with the weight he was carrying that day.

If the race is run at a crawl and GDM doesn't have any pressure applied to his jumping then I'd say he's a near on certainty. If something goes off and makes it and puts his jumping under pressure, then I think cracks will appear towards the end of the race. He throws in lots of awkward jumps. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see him unseat or fall tbh, but if the pace is sedate then he's going to win.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Typically this race is run quite slowly for the first lap then becomes a real test however not sure if the drop in distance has changed that?

 

[charlie]

Typically this race is run quite slowly for the first lap then becomes a real test however not sure if the drop in distance has changed that?

Do we see a pace angle in the race? I can't see it.

 

[Istabraq]

Typically this race is run quite slowly for the first lap then becomes a real test however not sure if the drop in distance has changed that?

I think that’s fair.
Smaller fields help a more sedate early pace too.

GDM just looks all over the winner.
Mister Coffey in the place market looks OK too…

 

[Birds Nest]

Typically this race is run quite slowly for the first lap then becomes a real test however not sure if the drop in distance has changed that?

Its what happened last year HF. Good luck with allogorie dv this week mate, hope she comes in for you.