• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2023 Diamond Geezer Cup (Antepost Tipping Competition)

So a bit of a further deep dive into the stats...

Firstly, number of different selections per race:
RaceNumber Of Selections
Supreme7
Arkle8
Ultima29
Champion Hurdle5
Mares Hurdle8
Boodles19
NH Chase6
Ballymore11
Brown Advisory12
Coral Cup37
QMCC4
X Country6
Grand Annual32
Champion Bumper14
Turners11
Pertemps16
Ryanair11
Stayers9
PP Plate24
Mares Novice13
Kim Muir26
Triumph11
County30
Albert Bartlett16
Gold Cup10
Mares Chase7
Hunters Chase11
Martin Pipe23
Clearly we have some really strong thoughts in the handicaps... reckon most of the handicaps will have less runners than we have selections :highly_amused:

Secondly, the top 3 picks per race. I did a similar analysis to that conducted last year (Sorry SharpHat, tagging seems to be broken) to work out the perceived value (PV) of each horse. The PV is calculated by multiplying the current odds by the percentage of selections. Theoretically, higher PV means it's either a good value bet, or we don't have a clue what we are on about :applouse:

Supreme
HorseSelections%PV
Facile Vega (1.91)6870.10%1.338969072
Marine Nationale (6.00)2020.62%1.237113402
Impaire Et Passe (9.00)33.09%0.2783505155
​
Arkle
HorseSelections%PV
Jonbon (2.38)5455.67%1.324948454
Dysart Dynamo (7.00)2222.68%1.587628866
El Fabiolo (6.50)1111.34%0.7371134021
​
Ultima
HorseSelections%PV
Gericault Roque (17.00)2323.71%4.030927835
Ga Law (21.00)1010.31%2.164948454
Corach Rambler (17.00)66.19%1.051546392
​
Champion Hurdle
HorseSelections%PV
Constitution Hill (1.33)8890.72%1.206597938
State Man (5.00)55.15%0.2577319588
Vauban (10.00)22.06%0.206185567
​
Mares Hurdle
HorseSelections%PV
Maries Rock (3.50)5253.61%1.87628866
Brandy Love (5.50)2525.77%1.417525773
Love Envoi (5.00)1313.40%0.6701030928
​
Boodles
HorseSelections%PV
Cougar (26.00)1919.59%5.092783505
Comfort Zone (11.00)1313.40%1.474226804
Jazzy Matty (21.00)99.28%1.948453608
​
NH Chase
HorseSelections%PV
Chemical Energy (9.00)4445.36%4.082474227
Gaillard Du Mesnil (2.63)3738.14%1.003195876
Ramillies (17.00)99.28%1.577319588
​
Ballymore
HorseSelections%PV
Gaelic Warrior (8.00)3435.05%2.804123711
Hermes Allen (3.75)1919.59%0.7345360825
Impaire Et Passe (7.00)1313.40%0.9381443299
​
Brown Advisory
HorseSelections%PV
Gerri Colombe (10.00)3030.93%3.092783505
Gentlemansgame (17.00)1616.49%2.804123711
The Real Whacker (8.00)1212.37%0.9896907216
Coral Cup
HorseSelections%PV
Theatre Glory (26.00)1616.49%4.288659794
No Ordinary Joe (17.00)1414.43%2.453608247
First Street (17.00)1010.31%1.75257732
​
Champion Chase
Energumene (1.80)7880.41%1.44742268
Edwardstone (3.75)1717.53%0.6572164948
Blue Lord (7.00)11.03%0.07216494845
​
Cross Country
HorseSelections%PV
Delta Work (2.75)8385.57%2.353092784
Galvin (11.00)77.22%0.793814433
Samcro (26.00)33.09%0.8041237113
​
Grand Annual​
HorseSelections%PV
Third Time Lucki (21.00)2626.80%5.628865979
Il Ridoto (21.00)1313.40%2.81443299
Colonel Mustard (21.00)55.15%1.082474227
​
Champion Bumper
HorseSelections%PV
Chapeau De Soleil (9.00)3738.14%3.432989691
Better Days Ahead (11.00)1616.49%1.81443299
Did I Ask You That (21.00)1111.34%2.381443299
​
Turners
HorseSelections%PV
James Du Berlais (9.00)3738.14%3.432989691
Mighty Potter (4.50)3232.99%1.484536082
Appreciate It (7.00)1616.49%1.154639175
​
Pertemps
HorseSelections%PV
Maxxum (5.00)3232.99%1.649484536
Salvador Ziggy (17.00)1414.43%2.453608247
Shoot First (6.00)1212.37%0.7422680412
​
Ryanair
HorseSelections%PV
Allaho (2.88)5455.67%1.603298969
Blue Lord (7.00)2525.77%1.804123711
Fakir Doudairies (11.00)99.28%1.020618557
​
Stayers
HorseSelections%PV
Flooring Porter (7.00)3637.11%2.597938144
Home By The Lee (7.00)2020.62%1.443298969
Klassical Dream (9.00)1414.43%1.298969072
​
Plate
HorseSelections%PV
So Scottish (7.00)2828.87%2.020618557
Ga Law (15.00)1717.53%2.628865979
Balco Coastal (15.00)1111.34%1.701030928
​
Mares Novice
HorseSelections%PV
Luccia (4.00)3738.14%1.525773196
Halka Du Tabert (15.00)1919.59%2.93814433
Magical Zoe (11.00)1717.53%1.927835052
​
Kim Muir
HorseSelections%PV
Indigo Breeze (13.00)2020.62%2.680412371
Fakiera (21.00)88.25%1.731958763
Into Overdrive (13.00)88.25%1.072164948
​
Triumph
HorseSelections%PV
Lossiemouth (2.25)7375.26%1.693298969
Blood Destiny (7.00)1010.31%0.7216494845
Jupiter Du Gite (13.00)55.15%0.6701030928
​
County
HorseSelections%PV
Hercule Du Seuil (17.00)1212.37%2.103092784
Winter Fog (13.00)1010.31%1.340206186
Hunters Yarn (15.00)99.28%1.391752577
​
Albert Bartlett
HorseSelections%PV
Hiddenvalley Lake (6.50)3030.93%2.010309278
Favori De Champdou (15.00)2525.77%3.865979381
Sandor Clegane (15.00)88.25%1.237113402
​
Gold Cup
HorseSelections%PV
Galopin Des Champs (2.63)6364.95%1.70814433
Stattler (11.00)1313.40%1.474226804
LHomme Presse (0.00)44.12%0
​
Mares Chase
HorseSelections%PV
Allegorie De Vassy (2.88)7476.29%2.197113402
Impervious (3.25)99.28%0.3015463918
Scarlet And Dove (8.00)77.22%0.5773195876
​
Hunters Chase
HorseSelections%PV
Vaucelet (4.00)6668.04%2.721649485
Winged Leader (7.00)1010.31%0.7216494845
Billaway (8.00)77.22%0.5773195876
​
Martin Pipe
HorseSelections%PV
Langer Dan (10.00)2424.74%2.474226804
Spanish Harlem (17.00)1414.43%2.453608247
Imagine (21.00)1313.40%2.81443299
​
The top 5 highest selected horses were:

Constitution Hill (91%)
Delta Work (86%)
Energumene (80%)
Allegorie De Vassy (76%)
Lossiemouth (75%)

The most popular between 2/1 and 10/1 were:

Vaucelet (68%)
Maries Rock (64%)
Chemical Energy (45%)
Chapeau De Soleil (38%)
James De Berlais (38%)
Luccia (38%)

Best Value
HorseSelectionsRace%PV
Third Time Lucki (21.00)26Grand Annual26.80%5.628865979
Cougar (26.00)19Boodles19.59%5.092783505
Theatre Glory (26.00)16Coral Cup16.49%4.288659794
Chemical Energy (9.00)44NH Chase45.36%4.082474227
Gericault Roque (17.00)23Ultima23.71%4.030927835
Favori De Champdou (15.00)25Albert Bartlett25.77%3.865979381
Chapeau De Soleil (9.00)37Champion Bumper38.14%3.432989691
James Du Berlais (9.00)37Turners38.14%3.432989691
Gerri Colombe (10.00)30Brown Advisory30.93%3.092783505
Halka Du Tabert (15.00)19Mares Novice19.59%2.93814433
Il Ridoto (21.00)13Grand Annual13.40%2.81443299
Imagine (21.00)13Martin Pipe13.40%2.81443299
Gaelic Warrior (8.00)34Ballymore35.05%2.804123711
Gentlemansgame (17.00)16Brown Advisory16.49%2.804123711
Vaucelet (4.00)66Hunters Chase68.04%2.721649485
Indigo Breeze (13.00)20Kim Muir20.62%2.680412371
Ga Law (15.00)17PP Plate17.53%2.628865979
Flooring Porter (7.00)36Stayers37.11%2.597938144
Langer Dan (10.00)24Martin Pipe24.74%2.474226804
No Ordinary Joe (17.00)14Coral Cup14.43%2.453608247
Salvador Ziggy (17.00)14Pertemps14.43%2.453608247
Spanish Harlem (17.00)14Martin Pipe14.43%2.453608247
Did I Ask You That (21.00)11Champion Bumper11.34%2.381443299
Delta Work (2.75)83X Country85.57%2.353092784
Allegorie De Vassy (2.88)74Mares Chase76.29%2.197113402
Ga Law (21.00)10Ultima10.31%2.164948454
Hercule Du Seuil (17.00)12County12.37%2.103092784
So Scottish (7.00)28PP Plate28.87%2.020618557
Hiddenvalley Lake (6.50)30Albert Bartlett30.93%2.010309278
Jazzy Matty (21.00)9Boodles9.28%1.948453608
Magical Zoe (11.00)17Mares Novice17.53%1.927835052
Maries Rock (3.50)52Mares Hurdle53.61%1.87628866
Better Days Ahead (11.00)16Champion Bumper16.49%1.81443299
Blue Lord (7.00)25Ryanair25.77%1.804123711
First Street (17.00)10Coral Cup10.31%1.75257732
Fakiera (21.00)8Kim Muir8.25%1.731958763
Galopin Des Champs (2.63)63Gold Cup64.95%1.70814433
Balco Coastal (15.00)11PP Plate11.34%1.701030928
Lossiemouth (2.25)73Triumph75.26%1.693298969
Maxxum (5.00)32Pertemps32.99%1.649484536
Allaho (2.88)54Ryanair55.67%1.603298969
Dysart Dynamo (7.00)22Arkle22.68%1.587628866
Ramillies (17.00)9NH Chase9.28%1.577319588
Luccia (4.00)37Mares Novice38.14%1.525773196
Mighty Potter (4.50)32Turners32.99%1.484536082
Comfort Zone (11.00)13Boodles13.40%1.474226804
Stattler (11.00)13Gold Cup13.40%1.474226804
Energumene (1.80)78QMCC80.41%1.44742268
Home By The Lee (7.00)20Stayers20.62%1.443298969
Brandy Love (5.50)25Mares Hurdle25.77%1.417525773
Hunters Yarn (15.00)9County9.28%1.391752577
Winter Fog (13.00)10County10.31%1.340206186
Facile Vega (1.91)68Supreme70.10%1.338969072
Jonbon (2.38)54Arkle55.67%1.324948454
Klassical Dream (9.00)14Stayers14.43%1.298969072
Marine Nationale (6.00)20Supreme20.62%1.237113402
Sandor Clegane (15.00)8Albert Bartlett8.25%1.237113402
Constitution Hill (1.33)88Champion Hurdle90.72%1.206597938
Appreciate It (7.00)16Turners16.49%1.154639175
Colonel Mustard (21.00)5Grand Annual5.15%1.082474227
Into Overdrive (13.00)8Kim Muir8.25%1.072164948
Corach Rambler (17.00)6Ultima6.19%1.051546392
Fakir Doudairies (11.00)9Ryanair9.28%1.020618557
Gaillard Du Mesnil (2.63)37NH Chase38.14%1.003195876
The Real Whacker (8.00)12Brown Advisory12.37%0.9896907216
Impaire Et Passe (7.00)13Ballymore13.40%0.9381443299
Samcro (26.00)3X Country3.09%0.8041237113
Galvin (11.00)7X Country7.22%0.793814433
Shoot First (6.00)12Pertemps12.37%0.7422680412
El Fabiolo (6.50)11Arkle11.34%0.7371134021
Hermes Allen (3.75)19Ballymore19.59%0.7345360825
Blood Destiny (7.00)10Triumph10.31%0.7216494845
Winged Leader (7.00)10Hunters Chase10.31%0.7216494845
Love Envoi (5.00)13Mares Hurdle13.40%0.6701030928
Jupiter Du Gite (13.00)5Triumph5.15%0.6701030928
Edwardstone (3.75)17QMCC17.53%0.6572164948
Scarlet And Dove (8.00)7Mares Chase7.22%0.5773195876
Billaway (8.00)7Hunters Chase7.22%0.5773195876
Impervious (3.25)9Mares Chase9.28%0.3015463918
Impaire Et Passe (9.00)3Supreme3.09%0.2783505155
State Man (5.00)5Champion Hurdle5.15%0.2577319588
Vauban (10.00)2Champion Hurdle2.06%0.206185567
Blue Lord (7.00)1QMCC1.03%0.07216494845
LHomme Presse (0.00)4Gold Cup4.12%0
​
Given some of these prices are still antepost, if you were looking for a "best value" yankee, I'd suggest the following:

Chemical Energy - National Hunt Chase (8/1)
Favori De Champdou - Albert Bartlett (12/1)
Chapeau De Soleil - Champion Bumper (8/1)
Gerri Colombe - Brown Advisory (9/1)
​
10,529/1 with Bet365 (10,934/1 with Coral/Ladbrokes, without the cashout option)
 
  • Like
Reactions: JamieSensible, RufusFlynn, taylorch1990 and 4 others
And JDB for a super yankee :excitement:

Great work and thank you.....it would be interesting to know (and possibly useful as well) the shortest priced runner in each race that nobody has selected (excluding for race destination reasons).
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Looks like we might have found ourselves a new completion secretary :encouragement:
 
Rooster Booster said:
And JDB for a super yankee :excitement:

Great work and thank you.....it would be interesting to know (and possibly useful as well) the shortest priced runner in each race that nobody has selected (excluding for race destination reasons).
Click to expand...

I excluded him just because of race uncertainty, but people can do as they please! Could probably argue there's just as much uncertainty in Gerri Colombe...

Shortest price runner that nobody has selected is (debatable on what you'd count as race destination reasons)

Supreme - Tahmuras (8/1)
Arkle - Sir Gerhard (6/1)/Flame Bearer (12/1)
Ultima - Crystal Glory (16/1)
Champion Hurdle - Honeysuckle (5/1)
Mares Hurdle - Gauloise (25/1)
Boodles - Bo Zenith (12/1)
NH Chase - Gentlemansgame (8/1)
Ballymore - High Definition (14/1)
Brown Advisory - Ramillies (12/1)
Coral Cup - Gaelic Warrior (5/1)
Champion Chase - Greaneteen (14/1)
Cross Country - Good Bye Sam (10/1)
Grand Annual - Adamantly Chosen (12/1)
Champion Bumper - Westort Cove (12/1)
Turners - Flame Bearer (12/1)
Pertemps - Glimpse of Gala (20/1)
Ryanair - Janidil (25/1)
Stayers - Ashdale Bob (10/1)
Plate - Ciel De Neige (16/1)
Mares Novice - La Prima Donna (16/1)
Kim Muir - Mr Incredible (11/2)
Triumph - Comfort Zone (12/1)
County - Bring On The Night (14/1)
Albert Bartlett - Grey Dawning (16/1)
Gold Cup - Minella Indo (16/1)
Mares Chase - Galia des Liteaux (12/1)
Hunters Chase - Secret Investor (10/1)
Martin Pipe - Jungle Prose (14/1)

Can't believe not a single person went for Honeysuckle!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kevloaf
'Can't believe not a single person went for Honeysuckle!'


I'd absolutely love it if she proved everyone wrong. That would make my year. C'mon Honey!!!!!!
 
Lobos said:
'Can't believe not a single person went for Honeysuckle!'


I'd absolutely love it if she proved everyone wrong. That would make my year. C'mon Honey!!!!!!
Click to expand...

I can't believe you didn't Lobos !

Dandrew99 has put significant effort into this for which we are all grateful, so a big collective thanks for putting so much time into this for everyone's benefit...
 
  • Like
Reactions: The Giant Bolster, Fouroverthrutwo, Mighty and 1 other person
Im just going to let her do the talking Ista.
 
Istabraq said:
I can't believe you didn't Lobos !

Dandrew99 has put significant effort into this for which we are all grateful, so a big collective thanks for putting so much time into this for everyone's benefit...
Click to expand...

Happy to do it :encouragement:

Google sheets/forms has done 90% of the hard work for me to be fair... I put more effort into working out who won the competition last year!
 
Dandrew99 thank you for all your efforts with this competition. Your pie charts have given me pause for thought as given the combined knowledge of all our experts on FJ I'm considering having a betting strategy around your results. Surely there has to be a proper return in there... here's hoping thanks again for all the effort put into this forum by Al the FJs. Good Luck all.....
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fouroverthrutwo
Thanks Dandrew99. Just done an 11 fold e/w acca on the horses that were selected by more than 50% of the entrants @10645/1. The place part pays 14/1

Facile Vega
Jonbon
Constitution Hill
Maries Rock
Energumene
Delta Work
Allaho
Lossiemouth
Galopin des Champs
Allegorie De Vassey
Vaucelet

the dream is alive:indecisiveness:
 
This is quite brilliant. Hugely appreciated. Love the idea of a PV based EW Yankee. Perhaps one focused on the handicaps and one not. I recognise most of the well selected / higher PV ones from the various threads, which is great as hopefully plenty on here have got on various singles and multiples at great prices, that isn’t to say they will win, but that we are gaining from each others intel and thinking. The only one that is high up the list but I don’t recall much discussion is Cougar in the Boodles, so will go and check that one out. Thanks again.
 
Had a boring Sunday evening so I thought I'd see how everyone's selections are doing... Just a bit of fun really.

Click here to see the Current Value.

I divided the placed odds by the current odds to give points per race.

The current best "Value" tips are by BagOfHammers with 34 points, so I guess that makes him the current tournament favourite. Rooster Booster is just behind, helped by being one of 8 to pick out this years Naiad in the tipping comp. Obviously a fair few non runners to come out yet but I thought it might be of some very minor interest to people...
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho, Tangodelta, Kevloaf and 4 others
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom