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2023 Antepost Flat Racing

Anyone have any Kentucky Derby fancies?

I've several backed since January but one I like at the prices is Mage 25/1
Twice raced and twice finishing behind KD favourite Forte the last of which just a length second in the Florida Derby after a bad break.
Showed improved form at the level on just his second start reversing form with Cyclone Mischief when getting the better of him in a stretch battle. Has been beaten by Forte twice now but 4th on debut in the fountain of youth was a highly encouraging debut and his beyer improved second time out when getting first run on Forte and succumbing late on.
IMO he's great value based on form and evident improvement from debut to next time out I'd have him more like a 12/1 shot behind the principles. Practical Move won't stay, Tapit Trice will have to pass probably 15 horses and encounter major traffic issues, Sotagake may go off too quick with something else and ruin his chances.

Fairly sure the 25's will still be available for a little while after the post draw so maybe worth holding fire until then just incase he gets a terrible draw but for me he's value at that price if lining up in 4-16
 
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Monty's Pass said:
Anyone have any Kentucky Derby fancies?

I've several backed since January but one I like at the prices is Mage 25/1
Twice raced and twice finishing behind KD favourite Forte the last of which just a length second in the Florida Derby after a bad break.
Showed improved form at the level on just his second start reversing form with Cyclone Mischief when getting the better of him in a stretch battle. Has been beaten by Forte twice now but 4th on debut in the fountain of youth was a highly encouraging debut and his beyer improved second time out when getting first run on Forte and succumbing late on.
IMO he's great value based on form and evident improvement from debut to next time out I'd have him more like a 12/1 shot behind the principles. Practical Move won't stay, Tapit Trice will have to pass probably 15 horses and encounter major traffic issues, Sotagake may go off too quick with something else and ruin his chances.

Fairly sure the 25's will still be available for a little while after the post draw so maybe worth holding fire until then just incase he gets a terrible draw but for me he's value at that price if lining up in 4-16
Click to expand...

I liked Arabian Knight but hes annoyingly got injured so wont be running. Loggins did interest me but where the hell he is is a complete different story. The 2 at the top of the market just seem far better than the rest
 
Monty's Pass said:
Anyone have any Kentucky Derby fancies?

I've several backed since January but one I like at the prices is Mage 25/1
Twice raced and twice finishing behind KD favourite Forte the last of which just a length second in the Florida Derby after a bad break.
Showed improved form at the level on just his second start reversing form with Cyclone Mischief when getting the better of him in a stretch battle. Has been beaten by Forte twice now but 4th on debut in the fountain of youth was a highly encouraging debut and his beyer improved second time out when getting first run on Forte and succumbing late on.
IMO he's great value based on form and evident improvement from debut to next time out I'd have him more like a 12/1 shot behind the principles. Practical Move won't stay, Tapit Trice will have to pass probably 15 horses and encounter major traffic issues, Sotagake may go off too quick with something else and ruin his chances.

Fairly sure the 25's will still be available for a little while after the post draw so maybe worth holding fire until then just incase he gets a terrible draw but for me he's value at that price if lining up in 4-16
Click to expand...

I think Mage is a great e/w chance, can't believe his odds are still 25/1.

No surprise a Good Magic colt recently sold for 2 million dollars.
 
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Zachx02 said:
Looking at the arc market and I think I've found an interesting one, Tunnes is a half bro to Torquator Tasso and if you ignore his run in the japan cup, he has been battering he's faced on ground that will most likely will come in the arc, I've had a little stab at 25s as a speculative bet
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Any idea what the ground is looking like at Cologne for tomorrow?
 
Zachx02 said:
According to Google its pissing down today and tomorrow so if that's true he should get a bit of give in the ground
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Nevermind it's good to firm if he wins impressively he's a good one
 
Be a disappointing Arc winner based on that effort wouldn't he. Although they sometimes are to be fair. :biggrin-new:
 
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Benjy23 said:
Be a disappointing Arc winner based on that effort wouldn't he. Although they sometimes are to be fair. :biggrin-new:
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I mean torquator tasso definitely was

Question is what is the ground actually like, racing post say its gd to soft some of the bookies good to firm
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
I mean torquator tasso definitely was

Question is what is the ground actually like, racing post say its gd to soft some of the bookies good to firm
Click to expand...

Aye, TT definitely more relevant here. But Solemia springs to mind as a big disappointment for me as well. Again on heavy ground. I occasionally still torture myself watching that back.

Would look a pretty bad time if it's good to firm ground? Although I've no idea how truly it was run to be fair. Through a phone screen and via YouTube wasn't the best quality combination.
​​​​
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
I mean torquator tasso definitely was

Question is what is the ground actually like, racing post say its gd to soft some of the bookies good to firm
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They've had rain about this week and it's only April so I'd be very surprised at good to firm.

I thought the performance was okay for his first race, we want him peaking later in the season
 
Benjy23 said:
Aye, TT definitely more relevant here. But Solemia springs to mind as a big disappointment for me as well. Again on heavy ground. I occasionally still torture myself watching that back.

Would look a pretty bad time if it's good to firm ground? Although I've no idea how truly it was run to be fair. Through a phone screen and via YouTube wasn't the best quality combination.
​​​​
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My Arc bets in recent years

Vadeni
Tarnawa
in swoop
Enable
Sea of class

All of them bar enable were moral winners in my eyes :boxing:

I'm interested in desert crown atm but yet to pull the trigger
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
My Arc bets in recent years

Vadeni
Tarnawa
in swoop
Enable
Sea of class

All of them bar enable were moral winners in my eyes :boxing:

I'm interested in desert crown atm but yet to pull the trigger
Click to expand...

Aye, I find it a really frustrating race but it's still my favourite flat race by a mile. Also had Tarnawa as a big winner.

Desert Crown be my pick of the older horses also. Will look to bring him on side soon. Any news of comeback plans?

Tahiyra still the dream for me. Although the latest update didn't seem too promising and wouldn't be surprised if it ended up a year too early for her.

The rest of the 3 year olds I'm not massively keen on or spent much time on this year to be fair. But will wait for the classics and miss the prices probably. :welcoming: Or maybe just before Derby or Oaks...
 
Benjy23 said:
Aye, I find it a really frustrating race but it's still my favourite flat race by a mile. Also had Tarnawa as a big winner.

Desert Crown be my pick of the older horses also. Will look to bring him on side soon. Any news of comeback plans?

Tahiyra still the dream for me. Although the latest update didn't seem too promising and wouldn't be surprised if it ended up a year too early for her.

The rest of the 3 year olds I'm not massively keen on or spent much time on this year to be fair. But will wait for the classics and miss the prices probably. :welcoming: Or maybe just before Derby or Oaks...
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Brigadier gerard and King george I believe are his targets
 
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Anyone know if Francesco Clemente is going to turn up in the Gordon Richards? 8/1 is an interesting price, especially if there’s a chance Bay Bridge goes to France next Sunday instead. Oddly enough he has a fairly similar profile to Bay Bridge at this point last year.
 
I'm not too downbeat about Tunnes at Cologne.

I see comparisons with Torquator Tasso, because he is his half brother, so carrying on from that it's worth remembering that Torquator Tasso not only lost every start off the back of a long break, but also was plenty beat throughout his career before he won his Arc.

Tunnes is most definitely ground dependant I'd say. 4 runs with 'Good' in the description and 3 of them defeats, the one win was a 5 runner maiden!

Also to note, his usual jockey did not ride him yesterday, any idea why this was?
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
I'm not too downbeat about Tunnes at Cologne.

I see comparisons with Torquator Tasso, because he is his half brother, so carrying on from that it's worth remembering that Torquator Tasso not only lost every start off the back of a long break, but also was plenty beat throughout his career before he won his Arc.

Tunnes is most definitely ground dependant I'd say. 4 runs with 'Good' in the description and 3 of them defeats, the one win was a 5 runner maiden!

Also to note, his usual jockey did not ride him yesterday, any idea why this was?
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He now rides for Andre Fabre, excellent jockey.

Edit:

Could be riding Pensee Du Jour the 3 y/o come the arc?
 
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Hopefully that is the King stand plans shelved for tenebrism

She didn't look quick enough for 5f at all there

Stiff 6f in the platinum jubilee much more her bag
 
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