2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Saxon Warrior]

Yes the flat performance proved decent indeed. I’d read somewhere on here that he met some AB trends or something but I can’t see it. He’s got some boot so I’d only see him over Supreme or Ballymore myself. It seems a real minefield for the novice hurdles this year though and the depth seems strong for all distances.

I highlighted Albert Bartlett trends in the Mullins Diary (I think) where Albert Bartlett winners had regularly ran in Punchestown Festival Bumpers the season before, but not the Grade 1 Bumper.
Most AB Irish winners had done this in the last decade.

Then I looked at what had won, or run well at the Punchestown Festival 2021 in those trend Bumpers.

My Mate Mozzie cropped up from that.
Having won at Punchy and being trained by the 3M Hurdle King Gavin Cromwell.

That was all.
It wasn't an assessment of MMM and his capacity Grade 1 Hurdler over a trip.

Maybe this is a year that meeting doesn't throw up the Bartlett winner.
It was more a strong trend to watch for, rather than tip of a horse.

 

[hardheld]

Backed JOURNEY WITH ME at 33/1 with cash out option. Obviously ballymore is most likely target, but I think there is a chance he could be Robcors and HBD supreme horse.

Had originally backed him for the AB- But have done a complete 360 and In my eyes he’s a deceptively quick galloper, a similar type to Appreciate It.

He appeared only to be second gear at Gowran, because the ground was horrific. I guess we will have to wait for decs, but I expect him to start at 2miles.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Backed JOURNEY WITH ME at 33/1 with cash out option. Obviously ballymore is most likely target, but I think there is a chance he could be Robcors and HBD supreme horse.

Had originally backed him for the AB- But have done a complete 360 and In my eyes he’s a deceptively quick galloper, a similar type to Appreciate It.

He appeared only to be second gear at Gowran, because the ground was horrific. I guess we will have to wait for decs, but I expect him to start at 2miles.

I'm not sure about the Supreme but quite a few Ballymore winners have won the same bumper as he did - Yorkhill, Bob Olinger and First Lieutenant in recent years (taken from OJA).

The supreme would be the least likeliest imo. I really like him and have a slight preference for the AB at this stage.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Backed JOURNEY WITH ME at 33/1 with cash out option. Obviously ballymore is most likely target, but I think there is a chance he could be Robcors and HBD supreme horse.

Had originally backed him for the AB- But have done a complete 360 and In my eyes he’s a deceptively quick galloper, a similar type to Appreciate It.

He appeared only to be second gear at Gowran, because the ground was horrific. I guess we will have to wait for decs, but I expect him to start at 2miles.

Journey With Me would appear to be a good example of the difficulty in predicting novice hurdler targets. For me, I can’t have him for anything other than the AB and I won’t consider him for any other race. He’s by Mahler (yet to have a Festival winner I believe) who pretty much exclusively sires stayers. His bumper won’t tell us that much as he just cantered his way round so we won’t know if there is a turn of foot at all. But his style was of a galloper and, given conditions, he certainly would not have been going 2m hurdle pace. I really can’t see him being competitive over shorter than what Bob Olinger ran last season, even though that comparison is pointless to some extent.

 

[taylorch1990]

I'm interested to see how Paso Doble and Casa Loupi get on today as his form ties on with John Locke who is one I'm keeping an eye out for. John Locke ran twice last season ultimately well beaten in the grade 2 adonis and then the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree. He actually looked to be travelling best turning in on the adonis before weakening away. Dan Skelton was quoted as saying he targeted those races as he didn't want to waste his maiden tag for this season as he seems him as one of his better novices.

 

[Lobos]

Can Paso Doble run in Supreme?? Quoted for it

 

[taylorch1990]

Can Paso Doble run in Supreme?? Quoted for it

I think so, I think the cut off date was April 24th for a win so he should still be a novice this season, but may be wrong.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Can Paso Doble run in Supreme?? Quoted for it

Yeah he can, as he didn't win his maiden until May 3rd, cut off point is the last Sunday in April I believe.

 

[Sprinter Sacre]

There are numerous favourites I'm willing to put in multiples, and I'm not sure if it's the competitive nature of this race, but I have no inclination to back Sir Gerhard.

 

[Zachx02]

Not impressed by Knappers Hill one bit from that run, very mediocre jumping

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Not impressed by Knappers Hill one bit from that run, very mediocre jumping

Probably because he needs to go up in trip

 

[Cunningham]

I didn’t mind KH’s run to be honest. I think he’s allowed to have a few iffy jumps and be green in his first run over obstacles it’s part of the learning curve. Nichols’ last supreme winner, al ferof fell on debut before coming 3rd NTO, and he won one of the best supremes we’ve seen, which this year looks like it’s shaping up to be. I’m not saying he’s going to win it, but there’s worse 33/1 shots in there. I think plenty of people are on hubrisko/ state man, myself included, who have far more questions to answer.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

I'd been boring on to people for months about the I Am Maximus 50/1 that was hanging around, he forms the other half of 'horses who would make my festival on their own' with JWM. I suspect there will turn out to be a couple better than him, but it's nice at this point that the Supreme at least seems the likely destination all being well. I know we're talking about English horses here, but the My Drogo form line obviously has a lovely look to it. IAM hasn't been straightforward at home by the sound of things though and there was a short twitter video of him doing a piece of work with Buzz where he appeared to need a decent bit of encouragement to stay on terms, but we shall see.

Well Buzz just won the Cesarewitch rather nicely so maybe most would need a reminder to keep up on the flat! :applause:

 

[Kevloaf]

Can someone save us all some time....

Who is the Ricci / Mullins horse this year?

Allez Colombieres, Champagne Fever, Vautour, Douvan, Min, Annamix, Senewalk?


:highly_amused:



On a more serious note, as a general rule I try not get to get carried away by horses we've seen in the Cheltenham Bumper as more often than not, they're too short based on them being 'known entities'. Obviously a few do go on to make the grade and get involved at the business end and it won't be a huge surprise at all if Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit do.... but after those two and Jonbon (who I agree with FinalFurlong91 on above) it's 20/1 bar... which is where I want to be starting off right now.

I Am Maximus now into 20/1 - didn't take the 50/1 as wasn't active enough on here at the time but that looks decent for everyone that's on!

Will check out My Mate Mozzie too after some shrewd notable mentions. and Journey With Me.

 

[Winging The Last]

Can someone save us all some time....

Who is the Ricci / Mullins horse this year?

Allez Colombieres, Champagne Fever, Vautour, Douvan, Min, Annamix, Senewalk?


:highly_amused:



On a more serious note, as a general rule I try not get to get carried away by horses we've seen in the Cheltenham Bumper as more often than not, they're too short based on them being 'known entities'. Obviously a few do go on to make the grade and get involved at the business end and it won't be a huge surprise at all if Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit do.... but after those two and Jonbon (who I agree with FinalFurlong91 on above) it's 20/1 bar... which is where I want to be starting off right now.

I Am Maximus now into 20/1 - didn't take the 50/1 as wasn't active enough on here at the time but that looks decent for everyone that's on!

Will check out My Mate Mozzie too after some shrewd notable mentions. and Journey With Me.

Hubrisko is your Ricci horse

 

[Lobos]

I've backed a few in the Supreme already and am quite heavy on both Sir Gerhard and Jonbon. Gun to head I think the latter will prove the better of the 2 this season. Whether that's good enough to win the opener is another story.

 

[Eudipe]

Shallwehaveonemore showed plenty of gears to dispatch some well-regarded types with ease in his Kempton bumper. The Moores seem excited by him & he is reported to have schooled well. I have covered him as a speculative Supreme selection @ 50s.
Soft Risk is another who showed an impressive turn of foot to win his bumper under Brian Hughes and he could be anything (the 3rd from that race hosed up in a 2m novice hurdle last week). His win was expected by trainer Nicky Richards after an impressive racecourse gallop and he regards Soft Risk as a 2 miler & a chaser in the making. He has the physique to make a chaser and perhaps a low key novice hurdles campaign is the plan (he is not currently quoted for Cheltenham).

 

[nortonscoin200]

I'd been boring on to people for months about the I Am Maximus 50/1 that was hanging around, he forms the other half of 'horses who would make my festival on their own' with JWM. I suspect there will turn out to be a couple better than him, but it's nice at this point that the Supreme at least seems the likely destination all being well. I know we're talking about English horses here, but the My Drogo form line obviously has a lovely look to it. IAM hasn't been straightforward at home by the sound of things though and there was a short twitter video of him doing a piece of work with Buzz where he appeared to need a decent bit of encouragement to stay on terms, but we shall see.

I'm not sure what to make of Sir Gerhard, I backed him for the bumper so wasn't complaining at the time, but it was hard to get away from the feeling that it was Kilcruits race with a better ride. Punchestown further adds to the theory. The sooner we can work out Kilcruit the better because he's going to be a pain til we do :hopelessness::highly_amused:

Jonbon, who knows?! I wasn't as impressed by his Newbury bumper as some are but his family tree speaks for itself and it'll be fascinating to see how he gets on.

Plenty of others to talk about naturally at this point, as impressive as AI was this year it was a poor renewal all told, this time round we could be in for a real treat, or a complete pain in the arse headscratcher to work out depending on how you want to look at it!

Skybet are still offering a RAB for Sir Gerhard, Kilcruit and Bob Olinger TWAR at 33-1.

They also have a 14-1 RAB on Sir Gerhard and Bob Olinger both to win any race. I

t's not huge but it takes away the guessing game about where they'll end up.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Shallwehaveonemore showed plenty of gears to dispatch some well-regarded types with ease in his Kempton bumper. The Moores seem excited by him & he is reported to have schooled well. I have covered him as a speculative Supreme selection @ 50s.

You'll probably not find many fans of him as he's trained by Gary Moore, but I liked his bumper performance, and as such backed him with a free bet for this race, however I will hold out on a cash bet until an entry, but I think he could be smart enough. Whether Cheltenham is the aim, I'm not sure right now.

 

[Eudipe]

You'll probably not find many fans of him as he's trained by Gary Moore, but I liked his bumper performance, and as such backed him with a free bet for this race, however I will hold out on a cash bet until an entry, but I think he could be smart enough. Whether Cheltenham is the aim, I'm not sure right now.

Gary Moore: 'I am excited by him. He jumps for fun and I love him. He possesses so much speed and could be anything.... I think he is a very good horse who will run in another bumper before going hurdling.' (OJA).