2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Deleted member 4957]

Prices as at 23/3/21

Supreme:
Sir Gerhard 5/1
Kilcruit 10/1
Journey With Me 33/1
Jonbon 33/1
Grand Jury 33/1

 

[Atlantic Viking]

I'd been boring on to people for months about the I Am Maximus 50/1 that was hanging around, he forms the other half of 'horses who would make my festival on their own' with JWM. I suspect there will turn out to be a couple better than him, but it's nice at this point that the Supreme at least seems the likely destination all being well. I know we're talking about English horses here, but the My Drogo form line obviously has a lovely look to it. IAM hasn't been straightforward at home by the sound of things though and there was a short twitter video of him doing a piece of work with Buzz where he appeared to need a decent bit of encouragement to stay on terms, but we shall see.

I'm not sure what to make of Sir Gerhard, I backed him for the bumper so wasn't complaining at the time, but it was hard to get away from the feeling that it was Kilcruits race with a better ride. Punchestown further adds to the theory. The sooner we can work out Kilcruit the better because he's going to be a pain til we do :hopelessness::highly_amused:

Jonbon, who knows?! I wasn't as impressed by his Newbury bumper as some are but his family tree speaks for itself and it'll be fascinating to see how he gets on.

Plenty of others to talk about naturally at this point, as impressive as AI was this year it was a poor renewal all told, this time round we could be in for a real treat, or a complete pain in the arse headscratcher to work out depending on how you want to look at it!

 

[Lobos]

AV, I think it's relatively easy to work out Kilcruit. His two best runs have been where there has been loads of pace up front, with others fading at the business end and him looking strongest at the line. He's a Stayer, through and through. Ballymore or Albert. Take your pick. He's one I put a line through the Supreme early. The only way he could run in the opener is if it came up very soft ground, similar to Klassical Dream which doesn't happen often.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm not buying into Jonbon yet

You see it all the time on the flat with very expensive full siblings to great horses winning poor races then ending up being useless

Because of the douvan connection hes always going to go off too short and will never be a value price

 

[jack1092]

I'm not buying into Jonbon yet

You see it all the time on the flat with very expensive full siblings to great horses winning poor races then ending up being useless

Because of the douvan connection hes always going to go off too short and will never be a value price

Amen to that FF.

 

[Eudipe]

I'm not buying into Jonbon yet

You see it all the time on the flat with very expensive full siblings to great horses winning poor races then ending up being useless

Because of the douvan connection hes always going to go off too short and will never be a value price

I would tend to agree on that basis but I am excited for him based on his P2P performance on which Jamie Codd is quoted:' Despite not having ridden him, he was the best Pointer in my eyes last year... he really does fall into the could be anything category...looks a real cat to jump... visually-really, really good.' (JTF). He did everything right in his bumper to my eye and while it's difficult to judge the full merit of that effort, a tenuous line through Top The Bill/Wonderwall would have it about 5lbs behind Sir Gerhard in the Champion Bumper (I'm not taking that literally but it does add some substance to the form). I would have Sir Gerhard as a worthy FAV at this stage, Jonbon at about twice his price? I'd say that's fair, though they're both a bit skinny for not having run over timber yet.

 

[Ray]

I actually think kilcruit will end up here..something about stayers running in the supremes and just running em ragged in the end i could see it happening with kilcruit

 

[Eireman]

Yeah I think this is where Kilcruit is heading as well. Not necessarily because hes a stayer but his run style is ridiculously similar to appreciate it in that they both are most comfortable sitting just off a strong pace and then taking control of the race 2/3 out where horses simply cannot then maintain that gallop. They realised the mistake they made on him in allowing the pace to be slow and Sir G to get away coming round the bend but rectified that at punchestown where they took up the running of that race much earlier and Sir G simply couldn't go with him. Watch how Appreciate it does the exact same thing about two/three out in his supreme and nobody can go with him. That is pretty much exactly how I think it will go with Kilcruit over 2 miles. Difference being some of the other novices may actually be able to go with him in a way none could with appreciate it but I would strongly favour him to run in this race at the minute.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

AV, I think it's relatively easy to work out Kilcruit. His two best runs have been where there has been loads of pace up front, with others fading at the business end and him looking strongest at the line. He's a Stayer, through and through. Ballymore or Albert. Take your pick. He's one I put a line through the Supreme early. The only way he could run in the opener is if it came up very soft ground, similar to Klassical Dream which doesn't happen often.

There was loads of pace upfront for this years Supreme and typically there'll be a good amount of it most years. The winner was a horse most people had pinned down as the Ballymore horse for a large chunk of the season. I think Kilcruit is between a Supreme and Ballymore horse personally, with the latter maybe the more likely. I don't see him as an AB candidate at all. Let the games begin...

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

I'd been boring on to people for months about the I Am Maximus 50/1 that was hanging around, he forms the other half of 'horses who would make my festival on their own'

I will be going into battle with you my friend.......

 

[Spectre]

With Sir Gerard and Kilcruit they’ll probably end up in the two obvious races, but I’d make a strong case for Kilcruit being better suited going to the Supreme and Sir Gerhard going to the Ballymore.

Sir Gerhard looks like he may be best being able to sprint away off a controlled pace, whereas Kilcruit looks better off a very strong gallop. Willie will definitely consider this, and the latter option would most likely suit their respective strengths.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm not buying into Jonbon yet

You see it all the time on the flat with very expensive full siblings to great horses winning poor races then ending up being useless

Because of the douvan connection hes always going to go off too short and will never be a value price

You're right about the Douvan/Price thing. Unfortunately that is out of ours and the horses control, but Jonbon was very impressive in his P2P, and done little wrong on his NHF debut too, finding plenty for pressure, which is what we like to see, especially knowing how stiff a track Cheltenham is.

The chances are lightning won't strike twice, in the fact that he won't be up to the level of Douvan, that's a high level to get to, but the fact you've not brought into Jonbon yet probably means you won't, at least for the coming season, as his price technically is already too short, if he starts off life winning first up over hurdles you can say goodbye to double figures for the festival too.

Unfortunately he was one of them where you needed to be in on him early, or miss out on at least a half reasonable price, IMO, just because of him being related to Douvan.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

With Sir Gerard and Kilcruit they’ll probably end up in the two obvious races, but I’d make a strong case for Kilcruit being better suited going to the Supreme and Sir Gerhard going to the Ballymore.

Sir Gerhard looks like he may be best being able to sprint away off a controlled pace, whereas Kilcruit looks better off a very strong gallop. Willie will definitely consider this, and the latter option would most likely suit their respective strengths.

These were my very early thoughts, especially with Sir Gerhard coming from a P2P background and his bumper debut where I made comparisons with Faugheen. He just screamed Ballymore to me. I've now changed my mind, but based on the bumper run at the festival more than anything else.

 

[Winging The Last]

Knappers Hill declared to race on Friday at Chepstow over 2 miles. In the race Bravemansgame came second to Soaring Glory last year

 

[Lobos]

Knappers Hill declared to race on Friday at Chepstow over 2 miles. In the race Bravemansgame came second to Soaring Glory last year

The race last year produced some of the top novices of the season.

 

[JackieMoon33]

My Mate Mozzie entered over 2 miles next week and Punchestown

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat...t-you-backed-yet-but-like?p=308764#post308764

Other than horses already in my shortlist/diary, there were a few likeable performances in the bumpers at Punchestown outside of the Sir G versus Kilcruit rematch. One that particularly caught my eye from a trainer that can win big races at Cheltenham was My Mate Mozzie. Like a couple of the other bumper winners, he pulled for most of the race and it was impressive that he still had something to give up the home straight and win comfortably by 8 lengths. I've not requested a price yet but I'd be very interested in him for the Supreme as a faster pace over two miles should help him settle better. That being said, I feel next seasons novice hurdle races could be a bit deeper than last and I have some work to do to narrow down my shortlist.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

These were my very early thoughts, especially with Sir Gerhard coming from a P2P background and his bumper debut where I made comparisons with Faugheen. He just screamed Ballymore to me. I've now changed my mind, but based on the bumper run at the festival more than anything else.

Faugheen would probably have won the Supreme, Ballymore or AB that year.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Faugheen would probably have won the Supreme, Ballymore or AB that year.

Yeah, can't argue with that.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

My Mate Mozzie entered over 2 miles next week and Punchestown

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat...t-you-backed-yet-but-like?p=308764#post308764

Other than horses already in my shortlist/diary, there were a few likeable performances in the bumpers at Punchestown outside of the Sir G versus Kilcruit rematch. One that particularly caught my eye from a trainer that can win big races at Cheltenham was My Mate Mozzie. Like a couple of the other bumper winners, he pulled for most of the race and it was impressive that he still had something to give up the home straight and win comfortably by 8 lengths. I've not requested a price yet but I'd be very interested in him for the Supreme as a faster pace over two miles should help him settle better. That being said, I feel next seasons novice hurdle races could be a bit deeper than last and I have some work to do to narrow down my shortlist.

I'm glad you've mentioned the Supreme. I've been in two minds as to where he may end up, and still may end up backing the any race price, but it's good to read others opinions.

I know it's probably irrelevant but the horse that beat him off levels on the flat back in June is now rated 91, after putting a sequence of solid efforts together. So he run into one that day it would seem.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I'm glad you've mentioned the Supreme. I've been in two minds as to where he may end up, and still may end up backing the any race price, but it's good to read others opinions.

I know it's probably irrelevant but the horse that beat him off levels on the flat back in June is now rated 91, after putting a sequence of solid efforts together. So he run into one that day it would seem.

Yes the flat performance proved decent indeed. I’d read somewhere on here that he met some AB trends or something but I can’t see it. He’s got some boot so I’d only see him over Supreme or Ballymore myself. It seems a real minefield for the novice hurdles this year though and the depth seems strong for all distances.