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2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle

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Istabraq said:
As impressive as My Mate Mozie has been he still looks like he'll be a better horse over further, I wouldn't say he doesn't have a turn of foot but his cruising speed would make him perfect for the Ballymore in my eyes...
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I'd agree with that also. I reckon in time he'll be in the Ballymore.
 
However good he might look, jumping right at his hurdles is far from ideal at Cheltenham.... Just ask Asterion Forlonge. You simply cannot get away with it v the best.
 
Lobos said:
However good he might look, jumping right at his hurdles is far from ideal at Cheltenham.... Just ask Asterion Forlonge. You simply cannot get away with it v the best.
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Comparing MMM's hurdling with that of Asterion Forlonge is a bit harsh.

MMM is low and quick over his hurdles, if a fraction out to his right. Asterion jumped violently right and wasnt half as quick over a flight of hurdles.
 
Yes it is very harsh. Doesn't help though however minor it is unfortunately.
 
Lobos said:
Yes it is very harsh. Doesn't help though however minor it is unfortunately.
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I'd imagine he'll be quicker over hurdles than anything else in the supreme so I'm not too bothered.
 
As long as it doesn’t get noticeably worse, I think that MMM jumping would be manageable at Cheltenham. He’s a real natural over them and has the engine to match. None of his main rivals have seen the track yet so he’s still to face a real test, but he’s set a decent standard so far. I don’t understand the step up in trip angle myself as I’d want to make use of his jumping over the shorter trip where he seems to be able to maintain a good pace from the front and still finish his races off. Although there are more hurdles to jump in the Ballymore, there are less per furlong which takes away some of the advantage. I always feel you can get away with poor jumping in the Ballymore more so than the Supreme.
 
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Was there any comment from the trainer after his win today? Saw the comments from mark walsh but not seen anything from Cromwell.

im another one in the camp of seeing him more as a Ballymore contender; in fairness if I could go back to just before/after his first run I’d probably cover both angles knowing what I do now, but at the current prices think I’ll stick to my guns and just keep my Ballymore slip.

Bit unnerved seeing him jump out to his right quite strongly at a few as well, probably not matter as much around navan but may be more of a problem on the old course in Cheltenham .
 
Vert hard to win a Supreme from the front, can't remember the last one to lead from pillar to post, Vautour maybe ?
You can bet your life someone will take him on...
 
Istabraq said:
Vert hard to win a Supreme from the front, can't remember the last one to lead from pillar to post, Vautour maybe ?
You can bet your life someone will take him on...
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I doubt he'll need to lead. Cromwell and co probably just keeping it simple at this level like Mullins does with his good ones. He'd be just fine getting a lead in my view, and he finds plenty in a finish, unlike a lot of archetypal front runners.
 
Istabraq said:
Vert hard to win a Supreme from the front, can't remember the last one to lead from pillar to post, Vautour maybe ?
You can bet your life someone will take him on...
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He doesn’t need to lead though as shown in his bumper win. He’ll be prominent for sure and his jumping could take him to the front. He’s seems very uncomplicated so I reckon you could put him anywhere in the field.
 
Istabraq said:
Vert hard to win a Supreme from the front, can't remember the last one to lead from pillar to post, Vautour maybe ?
You can bet your life someone will take him on...
Click to expand...

Mark said Gavin told him to keep it simple, if nothing wants to go on then for him to lead but if someone would give him a lead that would be fine.

No issue for him needing to front run.
 
Yeah and well all see kilcruit do it from the front next
 
I'm split with MMM. That race at Navan is a good trial for Supreme horses and he's ran very well on the clock, but his need for good ground and jumping out to the right puts me off slightly. 14/1 is right on the edge for me. My worry is every year horses start early, impress, we talk about them for a bit then a load of better horses we haven't seen yet emerge and 14's suddenly looks shit. Hard to know if that will happen here, or if he's genuinely up to this level.
 
charlie said:
I'm split with MMM. That race at Navan is a good trial for Supreme horses and he's ran very well on the clock, but his need for good ground and jumping out to the right puts me off slightly. 14/1 is right on the edge for me. My worry is every year horses start early, impress, we talk about them for a bit then a load of better horses we haven't seen yet emerge and 14's suddenly looks shit. Hard to know if that will happen here, or if he's genuinely up to this level.
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I think that's a fair point Charlie. So often we see what appear to be good early novice performances in Ireland and we get excited about one, only for it to be put in it's place in the Royal Bond or one of the big early season trials.

I'm not sure My Mate Mozzie is one of those though. Clearly we don't know what else will come out. We could have an absolute superstar lurking somewhere, but his performances so far haven't been out of place with what you want to see from a top end novice, and there's no reason to think he won't keep doing it.

Presumably they'll take there chance in the Royal Bond and they'll make a plan from there. It's sure to include a mid-season break though. A look at the Royal Bond entries suggests there aren't any lurkers in there. He's probably going to have to beat either Mighty Potter or Three Stripe Life from Gordon, whatever Willie decides is the best of his, and probably Impervious with her 7lb allowance. If he wins you'd think it's Supreme all the way, but if he's beaten they'd surely start thinking the step up to two and half would be the way to go. That or a handicap, but he's probably done too much already for that to be an option.
 
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