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2022 Novice Hurdle Division

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Anyone else think it's unlikely now that classic getaway will be aimed at the Cheltenham bumper? A lot of people on here myself included have backed him but a 2 mile 4 furlong bumper on heavy ground in May doesn't seem like a normal preparation. Wouldn't be the way Elliott would go anyway. Maybe going straight over hurdles?
 
Hes with Mullins mate. But I note your thoughts with regards opening assignments, Mullins doesnt seem to worry as much as others about distances though for my mind
 
Johnoman66 said:
Anyone else think it's unlikely now that classic getaway will be aimed at the Cheltenham bumper? A lot of people on here myself included have backed him but a 2 mile 4 furlong bumper on heavy ground in May doesn't seem like a normal preparation. Wouldn't be the way Elliott would go anyway. Maybe going straight over hurdles?
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Hard enough guessing what Willie will do a few weeks in advance, never mind 10 months, but if I had to take an opinion, i'd say it's a decision that makes it look more likely they will send him over hurdles next season. Grangeclare West also held an entry for this race, but it's Classic Getaway they're sending. They're may be another reason altogether and it may not mean very much at all, that's the 'fun' of this game... :biggrin-new:
 
Johnoman66 said:
Anyone else think it's unlikely now that classic getaway will be aimed at the Cheltenham bumper? A lot of people on here myself included have backed him but a 2 mile 4 furlong bumper on heavy ground in May doesn't seem like a normal preparation. Wouldn't be the way Elliott would go anyway. Maybe going straight over hurdles?
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...10-1 with Sky for the CB & also 10-1 in their any race list.
 
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Appreciate It ran in a 2m4f bumper and ended up a very close second to Ferny Hollow in the Champion Bumper. Willie also isn't averse to giving a good bumper horse a run in the summer to help with experience/maturity.

Wasn't there a stat at one point that good bumper horses that started out early had a very good record in the Champion Bumper? I think very few start out so early now, but Willie has definitely won it with similar horses.
 
I remember Cork All Star winning a couple of times in Bumpers in the summer in 2006 before a Cheltenham Bumper win in November and being saved for March and winning in 2007.

Don't recall any other bumper since, running twice before the autumn season started and then starting up again and winning the Cheltenham Bumper.

Cork All Star was flat bred from back in the days when more flat breds went jumping.

He was out of the family of super-filly Ravinella, which possibly explains why he had a longer spell in Bumpers.

He turned out to be a better bumper horse than a hurdler.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
I remember Cork All Star winning a couple of times in Bumpers in the summer in 2006 before a Cheltenham Bumper win in November and being saved for March and winning in 2007.

Don't recall any other bumper since, running twice before the autumn season started and then starting up again and winning the Cheltenham Bumper.

Cork All Star was flat bred from back in the days when more flat breds went jumping.

He was out of the family of super-filly Ravinella, which possibly explains why he had a longer spell in Bumpers.

He turned out to be a better bumper horse than a hurdler.
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I've just had a check back, and a quick count I think gives 7 out of 21 Champion Bumper winners since the turn of the century had their first bumper run either the previous summer or earlier. Admittedly the trend is much stronger earlier. It does include Willie's bumper winners though.
 
Spectre said:
I've just had a check back, and a quick count I think gives 7 out of 21 Champion Bumper winners since the turn of the century had their first bumper run either the previous summer or earlier. Admittedly the trend is much stronger earlier. It does include Willie's bumper winners though.
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Those would be the ones that had one run.

I remember looking at that myself regarding some quoted in the bumper market for next season that had already ran twice

2021 - Sir Gerhard - Bumper debut 31st October 2020 - no runs before autumn season start
2020 - Ferny Hollow - Bumper debut 1st December 2019 - no runs before autumn season start
2019 - Envoi Allen - Bumper debut 2nd December 2018 - no runs before autumn season start
2018 - Relegate - Bumper debut 13 January 2018 - no runs before autumn season start
2017 - Fayonagh - Bumper debut 6th May 2016 - one run in the spring, before autumn season started
2016 - Ballyandy - Bumper debut 21st October 2015 - no runs before autumn season started
2015 - Moon Racer - Bumper debut 21st April 2014 - one run (win) before autumn season started
2014 - Silver Concorde - Bumper debut 28 Jan 12 (2 yrs) - two runs (32/) then a year off before autumn season started
2013 - Briar Hill - Bumper debut 3rd January 2013 - no runs before autumn season started
2012 - Champagne Fever - Bumper debut 26th Dec 2011 - no runs before autumn season started
2011 - Cheltenian - Bumper debut 26th October 2010 - no runs before autumn season started
2010 - Cue Card - Bumper debut 25th January 2010 - no runs before autumn season started
2009 - Dunguib - Bumper debut 26th April 2008 - one run (2nd) before autumn season started
2008 - Cousin Vinny - Bumper debut 20th February 2008 - no runs before autumn season started
2007 - Cork All Star - Bumper debut 14th July 2006 - two runs (11) before autumn season started

In the fourteen years since Cork All Star won the Champion Bumper,

It has been won 10 times by horses that didn’t debut in bumpers until the autumn/winter season of their win.

Three Champion Bumper winners in this period had ran once in April/May of the prior season before going on to win the Champion Bumper the following season.

Cork All Star was the last Champion Bumper winner to run twice in the summer before the autumn season started

Silver Concorde ran in two Bumpers in January 2012 and July 2012, then skipped a season before commencing his Champion Bumper winning season - March 2014.

———————————————-

In the current Champion Bumper market we have

Classic Getaway -Bumper debut today 25th May 2021 (1 run, 1 win)
I Am Maximus - Bumper Debut 20th October 2020 (1 run, 1 Win)
Grangeclare West - unraced in bumpers at present
Dark Raven - raced twice in Bumpers 7th March 2021 and 4th April 2021 (2 wins)
Journey With Me - Bumper debut 12th March 2021 (1 run, 1 win)
Au Fleuron - Bumper debut 24th March 2021 (1 run, 1 win)
Dysart Dynamo - raced twice in Bumpers 23rd March 2021 and 29th April 2021 (2 wins)
Guily Billy - unraced in bumpers at present (declared, but withdrawn with stone bruise May 2021)
Ashroe Diamond - Bumper Debut 16th May 2021 (1 run, 1 Win)
Glowing Account - Unraced at all - (Trained by Willie, bred to be a smart 10F Flat horse)
Non Binding - Bumper Debut 27th April 2021 (1 run - 20th of 28 at Punchestown)
Mighty Potter - Bumper Debut 1st March 2022 (1 run, 1 win)
Wells Glory - Bumper Debut 9th May 2021 (1 run, 1 Win)
Big Changes - Bumper debut 24th March 2021 (4th to Au Fleuron)

Statistically the Festival Bumper has been won mostly by horses that didn’t run until the autumn season starts, so the four highlighted horses in the current betting market fit that profile better than the others - for now.

Of Willie’s 11 Champion Bumper winners, 9 of them were 5yo and only 2 were 6yo ( which includes Sir Gerhard).

He has two of the three unraced horses in the current Bumper Market.

Grangeclare West owned by Cheveley Park and 5yo, will be 6yo by next years Festival.

The other is Glowing Account owned by Ballylinch Stud who is a 4yo, 5yo by next years Festival.

Ballylinch Stud have ran only two horses in Ireland in NH races in the last five years,

Hollowgraphic (2 runs, 1 win) beat Dunvegan by 13 lengths with a top class 135 RPR in mid-season bumper. and

Royal Illusion (6 runs, 3 wins) top class 125 RPR for a Mares Bumper win, mid-season, won over hurdles this season before falling when 9/2 for the Fairyhouse Grade 1 Mares Novice Hurdle in which Skyace beat Gauloise last month.

If they run Glowing Account in Bumpers or Mares Novice Hurdles she will be right on my radar.
 
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Pleasing enough start from Classic Getaway, looked very green so a more than useful outing. Already got him on board for the bumper but taken the boosted 45/1 with Betfair (cashout) for the Ballymore, seems no harm in getting onside at this point at that sort of price.
 
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From Paul Ferguson on twitter: Interesting to hear that Patrick Mullins reportedly suggested to Fran Berry that Classic Getaway will go hurdling in the autumn.

Quote from Patrick Mullins: "He is a beautiful-looking horse and I think he was a little bit more expensive than a Rolls-Royce Phantom! I imagine he'll go jumping later in the season. Willie didn't rush him and let him settle in."
 
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Atlantic Viking said:
From Paul Ferguson on twitter: Interesting to hear that Patrick Mullins reportedly suggested to Fran Berry that Classic Getaway will go hurdling in the autumn.

Quote from Patrick Mullins: "He is a beautiful-looking horse and I think he was a little bit more expensive than a Rolls-Royce Phantom! I imagine he'll go jumping later in the season. Willie didn't rush him and let him settle in."
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Ballymore more likely then based on the trip today
 
HoldenTheReins said:
Ballymore more likely then based on the trip today
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I’m thinking Albert Bartlett like the owner/trainers Allaho.

But been discussing the sire, Getaway, and his poor Cheltenham Festival WIN record with hurdlers and chasers.

Certainly wouldn’t be Bumper bound given he is a 5yo, trained by Willie and out in Bumpers already.
Though the bookies don’t mind taking bets in the Champion Bumper as they’ve now made him a short priced favourite.
 
My personal take is that CPS have bought Grangeclare West and Classic Getaway in an attempt to win the Gold Cup. They seem more in the mold of staying chasers than their other expensive PtP recruits. For that reason, I’ve not backed either for the bumper (famous last words) and I’m not even sure I would over hurdles, especially as I don’t build books.

I’m sticking my neck out on that one and prepared for the fall out at the end of the season :biggrin-new:
 
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JackieMoon33 said:
My personal take is that CPS have bought Grangeclare West and Classic Getaway in an attempt to win the Gold Cup. They seem more in the mold of staying chasers than their other expensive PtP recruits. For that reason, I’ve not backed either for the bumper (famous last words) and I’m not even sure I would over hurdles, especially as I don’t build books.

I’m sticking my neck out on that one and prepared for the fall out at the end of the season :biggrin-new:
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That’s where I am too, at the moment

Certainly not the Bumper, Supreme or Ballymore.

Only the Bartlett is vaguely of interest, but as he is by Getaway and not Stowaway I may pass on that too.

Gladly join you in the ‘neck stickers’ squad. :chuncky:
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
That’s where I am too, at the moment

Certainly not the Bumper, Supreme or Ballymore.

Only the Bartlett is vaguely of interest, but as he is by Getaway and not Stowaway I may pass on that too.

Gladly join you in the ‘neck stickers’ squad. :chuncky:
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Why not the Ballymore, Saxon?
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
Why not the Ballymore, Saxon?
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Not for me based on

Opposition:-
Some of: Kilcruit, Jonbon, Journey With Me, Sir Gerhard, Dark Raven.

Today:
He ground it out well, after a complete hack canter for half the race.
I had Envoi Allen, Bob Olinger and Kilcruit in my head and compared them to the grinding style of CG and the difference struck me.

Bartlett maybe but not Ballymore, he looks a big staying type. Chasing looks his game.

Sire:
The sire has a terrible Cheltenham Festival record, a lot of underperformers from Getaway up that Hill.

Whereas Stowaway's just eat it up.
Telmesomethinggirl, Monkfish (x2), Put The Kettle On (x4), The Shunter (x2).

Kilcruit is by Stowaway, and I see him as a much more likely Ballymore type.

Could be completely wrong of course :bull_head:
 
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Not sure if he's been mentioned already, but, when looking through Letsbeclearaboutit's form, I stumbled upon the horse that placed behind him at the Dublin racing festival: Whatdeawant.

He beat Ginto on debut, who was fairly well touted from what I remember and is with the right trainer in Willie. Appreciate that he is unlikely to be first string in whatever race he goes for, but his owner is the founder and chairman of Ballymore and has run City Island (1st) and Longhouse Poet (8th) in the race in recent years. At 50/1 with cashout, I'm happy to take my chances.
 
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