2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[jonthehammer]

DD priced up 33/1 with all bookies

 

[charlie]

I’ve never got DD - remember there being a lot of chatter last season, so looked back at his past races. Two extremely average (being kind) chase runs, and a 10 length beating by Minella Indo 2 1/2 years ago the best on show?

For me I’ll definitely be looking elsewhere until/unless he produces something this season that changes my mind - backing him now is a huge leap of faith.

He took a '10 length beating by Minella Indo' - do we ignore that he ran Allaho to a length and beat a future stayers hurdle winner? These aren't things you'd hang your hat on with a view to the NHC, but they matter in terms of weighing up what he could be.

I think calling his chase debut 'extremely average' shows a lack of understanding about horses coming back from injury. How do you think a horses body responds to race excursion after such a long time off? When a horse is off for nearly two years what instructions do you think a trainer gives a jockey?

He's ran to a mid 140's level after 655 days off and wouldn't have been near race fit. That run was deemed good enough to send him RSA - thats not average and I think people lose sight of where winners of this race come from - very few eventual NHC winners have a sexy and/or successful profile at this time of the year, hence why every year there are red herring after red herring.

For all I know DD is one, but I think his price is fair and whilst he has to prove he can do it (I definitely agree with you there), I think the sticks you are knocking him with are a little harsh.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

He took a '10 length beating by Minella Indo' - do we ignore that he ran Allaho to a length and beat a future stayers hurdle winner? These aren't things you'd hang your hat on with a view to the NHC, but they matter in terms of weighing up what he could be.

I think calling his chase debut 'extremely average' shows a lack of understanding about horses coming back from injury. How do you think a horses body responds to race excursion after such a long time off? When a horse is off for nearly two years what instructions do you think a trainer gives a jockey?

He's ran to a mid 140's level after 655 days off and wouldn't have been near race fit. That run was deemed good enough to send him RSA - thats not average and I think people lose sight of where winners of this race come from - very few eventual NHC winners have a sexy and/or successful profile at this time of the year, hence why every year there are red herring after red herring.

For all I know DD is one, but I think his price is fair and whilst he has to prove he can do it (I definitely agree with you there), I think the sticks you are knocking him with are a little harsh.

To respond to each of your points in order:

1. No we don’t ignore it. However we do have to place it in context in terms of relevance to now and to next March. The 10 length beating was 2 1/2 years ago. That’s a long long time in racing isn’t it. Since then Minella Indo has racked up 9 races, 5 wins, including a Gold Cup. DD has ran twice and got beat twice. The optimist (you?) may suggest only one of these two horses can be open to much improvement, the realist may suggest there’s a leap of faith required to even believe DD will turn up in March, let alone challenge for honours.

2. A lack of understanding? Just as the handicapper has to act on known form, not potential, I’ve merely been accurate in description. Yes DD may have put in an encouraging display at Newbury after a long lay off. But that is all it was, encouraging. To suggest anything else is inaccurate.

3. I’m not knocking a horse for the sake of it, merely explaining why he isn’t for me at current prices. If it was 66s or maybe even 50s, I probably wouldn’t have said anything. For me, 33s are just too skinny without further evidence he’s fit, well, and retains a level of ability.

Harsh? Probably. Fair? I think so.

No biggie Charlie - I usually nod my head to your posts - we can’t agree on them all

 

[charlie]

To respond to each of your points in order:

1. No we don't ignore it. However we do have to place it in context in terms of relevance to now and to next March. The 10 length beating was 2 1/2 years ago. That’s a long long time in racing isn’t it. Since then Minella Indo has racked up 9 races, 5 wins, including a Gold Cup. DD has ran twice and got beat twice. The optimist (you?) may suggest only one of these two horses can be open to much improvement, the realist may suggest there’s a leap of faith required to even believe DD will turn up in March, let alone challenge for honours.

2. A lack of understanding? Just as the handicapper has to act on known form, not potential, I’ve merely been accurate in description. Yes DD may have put in an encouraging display at Newbury after a long lay off. But that is all it was, encouraging. To suggest anything else is inaccurate.

3. I’m not knocking a horse for the sake of it, merely explaining why he isn’t for me at current prices. If it was 66s or maybe even 50s, I probably wouldn’t have said anything. For me, 33s are just too skinny without further evidence he’s fit, well, and retains a level of ability.

Harsh? Probably. Fair? I think so.

No biggie Charlie - I usually nod my head to your posts - we can’t agree on them all

I like differing opinions GS, informs constructive debate. We can knock heads, its' fine - I'm harsh about horses on here all the time. :welcoming:

Re the AB, my point was that you didn't provide any context in your OP. Running Allaho to a length at Cheltenham over hurdles is relevant enough to at least get a mention. We have limited evidence and are trying to weigh up how good DD might be.

I am not going to change my view on that Newbury run, although glad to see you've migrated from 'extremely average' to 'encouraging

IMO Galvin's unusual campaign and string of 1's have skewed people's opinions of what wins the NHC, and where they should be at this stage of their career.

Normally after the NHC I look back at the form and try and figure out what I missed. At this time in 2013, Midnight Prayer hadn't even jumped a fence and had run to a mid 120's level over hurdles. At this time in 2018, Le Breuil was just a hurdler going chasing who go battered in the Coral Cup. In 2019, Ravenhill was taking his 5th run over fences to achieve the same level it took DD in one attempt after two years off!

My point is it's easy to miss horses who have done very little by this stage of their career, and who are not obvious. That's fine, but I'll be damned if I don't back a horse thats run to a mid 140's level on debut over 3 miles after 655 days off for a JP/Hendo team that have actually name checked the race for DD before. It goes beyond obvious, way beyond.

Yes, he's had issues and yes, he hasn't won - I am being optimistic, but I don't think I'm being THAT optimistic GS.

DD is clearly healthy and well after his debut otherwise he wouldn't have run in the RSA, and the fact they ran him there is a ringing endorsement of how good they think he is - they clearly think he's very good and quite frankly, you don't need to be anything more to win this race.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Jonjo O'Neil has a fantastic run/win record in the 4 miler, probably every bit as good as Mullins/Gord. If he has a runner aimed at the race I'll jump on it.

Yep, between this and the Ultima, are the races I check horses out trained by Jonjo. He's got a couple that interest me, but waiting on entries currently.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I have added Dickie Diver @ 33/1.

I want to get him onside before Henderson's RP stable tour next week.

JP likes having NHC runners and his current options listed in the market appear limited.

I think there is a talented horse in DD. He might not necessarily dine at the top table (which is the box NHC horses tick), but he is very good. His Albert Bartlett form looks rock solid and his run at Newbury last December when returning from a 655 day break was ridiculously good I thought. We're talking nearly 2 years off, and that performance was considered good enough to throw him in the proverbial deep end on just his second chase start. It didn't work out, but I don't think he lost too much in defeat.

Nicky - 'He is a seriously talented horse if we can keep him in one piece. He loves soft ground and stays really well, and we just have to hope we have a clear run with him'.

Nicky does worry me and I can't necessarily trust his decision making, but I remember reading in a book a few years ago (I think it may have been Mark Howard), that DD left the PTP scene in Ireland being compared to the likes of Best Mate, he was considered that good. Things haven't gone his way, but theres a proper lurker in there. Pedigree is mustard, owned by a man who loves NHC winners, cost 200k plus, Cheltenham Festival experience a big plus, he jumps well, wants to stay and stay, will be a second season chaser which ticks a lot of stats trends and I just think collectively, the price needs to be taken given his profile.

It's a risk though. I am extremely aware that Nicky doesn't tend to send too many down the NHC route, but when he does they go off bloody short! Beware The Bear 9/2 and OK Corral in more recent years. OK Corral went off 4/1 for a NHC having finished 2nd a previous year in an AB and I'm confident based on raw ability that DD would shit OK Corral out for breakfast.

I think DD will be Henderson's NHC horse and if he says as much on Tuesday 33 becomes 16, a win over 3m becomes single figures and the rest as they say, is history.

The rules state 'Horses must have run in at least two chases and must have finished in the first four in a chase staged over an extended two miles and seven and a half furlongs or further', so DD's RSA 4th means he must run in one chase this season over 2m7f or more to qualify for the race. I think thats right, but if I'm not please let me know.

You're not alone Charlie, I do like DD, bit of a cliff horse when it comes to the festival for me. I backed him for both this race and the RSA last season, but ultimately was hoping he'd end up here as I do think this race will suit him more. I've also backed him again for this race this time around, so he owes me :highly_amused:

As you noted, the worry is Nicky Henderson, his record in the race is dire, but here's hoping that will change this coming season :encouragement:

 

[charlie]

You're not alone Charlie, I do like DD, bit of a cliff horse when it comes to the festival for me. I backed him for both this race and the RSA last season, but ultimately was hoping he'd end up here as I do think this race will suit him more. I've also backed him again for this race this time around, so he owes me :highly_amused:

As you noted, the worry is Nicky Henderson, his record in the race is dire, but here's hoping that will change this coming season :encouragement:

Is it though?

2009 - no runner
2010 - no runner
2011 - 1 runner, 3rd @ 20/1
2012 - 1 runner, UR @ 40/1
2013 - no runner
2014 - no runner
2015 - no runner
2016 - no runner
2017 - 1 runner, 7th @ 9/2f
2018 - 1 runner, PU @ 33/1
2019 - 2 runners, both PU @ 4/1 & 9/1 2020 - no runner
2021 - no runner

In 13 years he's had no runner in the race 8 times. He's only really had two real let downs with the others rank outsiders you'd expect little from.

I'd put forward it's less his record in the race thats worrying, and more him targeting the actual race full stop. I didn't know they name checked the NHC for DD previously until Q mentioned it, which goes down as a big plus given he retains his novice status.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Is it though?

2009 - no runner
2010 - no runner
2011 - 1 runner, 3rd @ 20/1
2012 - 1 runner, UR @ 40/1
2013 - no runner
2014 - no runner
2015 - no runner
2016 - no runner
2017 - 1 runner, 7th @ 9/2f
2018 - 1 runner, PU @ 33/1
2019 - 2 runners, both PU @ 4/1 & 9/1 2020 - no runner
2021 - no runner

In 13 years he's had no runner in the race 8 times. He's only really had two real let downs with the others rank outsiders you'd expect little from.

I'd put forward it's less his record in the race thats worrying, and more him targeting the actual race full stop. I didn't know they name checked the NHC for DD previously until Q mentioned it, which goes down as a big plus given he retains his novice status.

Regardless of price, 7 runners and 1 place, it's not exactly inspiring stuff.

He's had more runners in recent years, so I'm not too worried by his targeting of the race. JP is also fond of a runner in it too.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Could it be, for whatever reason, Hendo can’t secure the services of the best amateurs so swerves the race ?
A Codd, Mullins or DOC is worth about two stone…

 

[charlie]

Regardless of price, 7 runners and 1 place, it's not exactly inspiring stuff.

He's had more runners in recent years, so I'm not too worried by his targeting of the race. JP is also fond of a runner in it too.

It's not exactly damning either!!:beaten:

12 years and 7 runners for a stable as large as Nicky's is pretty low, and half his runners could be chalked up as outsiders :sneakiness:

In going through Nicky's previous NHC horses, it was interesting to see how many winners had experience running around Cheltenham (not just fez):

2011 - 4
2012 - 4
2013 - 0
2014 - 0
2015 - 4
2016 - 2
2017 - 4
2018 - 2
2019 - 3
2020 - 0
2021 - 3

You obviously wouldn't put a line through a horses with no or limited Cheltenham experience, just noting the average is 2-3 runs over the last 10 years or so, and I feel like the ones with no runs are more explainable (especially with the benefit of hindsight:highly_amused. Ravenhill was a long-time plot job for Gordon, Back In Focus was a relatively unexposed unbeaten chaser for Willie who won at 9/4F, and you'd have needed a prayer to find Midnight Prayer, such is racing.

The record of favourites in this race compared with Cheltenham runs is interesting (winner in bold):

2011 - Chicago Grey - 4
2012 - Teaforthree - 4
2013 - Back In Focus - 0
2014 - Foxrock - 0 (9th)
2015 - Very Wood - 1 (10th)
2016 - Southfield Royale - 0 (4th)
2017 - A Genie In A Bottle - 0 (5th)
2018 - Jury Duty - 1 (UR)
2019 - Ballyward - 1 (F)
2020 - Carefully Selected - 1 (UR)
2021 - Escaria Ten - 1 (3rd)

Irish favourites with 1 run or less do poorly. Of course, with plenty of the season left experience can be gained and horses can win this with no experience around Cheltenham, but its interesting looking at the above that the three horses who currently head the market are all irish trained and have 1 run at Cheltenham between them.

Thats not to say they don't deserve to be there, because they do, it's just worth noting is all.

 

[Lobos]

Henderson has made it known on a few occasions that the 4 miler and the Bumper are his least favourite races at the Fez. I avoid anything of his in the AP lists in those races. His record in long distance races is a disgrace for a trainer of his ability. He's never won a National of any description in his entire training career.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

It's not exactly damning either!!:beaten:

12 years and 7 runners for a stable as large as Nicky's is pretty low, and half his runners could be chalked up as outsiders :sneakiness:

Look, I'm not trying to play down Dickie Diver's chances as a racehorse, I backed him with a few free bets for this race early on in the year, so he'll be a very good winner for me, but Nicky's record in the race with the limited number of runners he has had is one thing that excites me a little less about DD's chances, that's all.

There's usually a reason his horses go off at big prices in the race, because he usually doesn't send his better ones here, however, when he has done they've achieved absolute zilch. Three fancied or semi-fancied runners in single figures and the results were 7th - PU - PU.

I know you mention the 7 runners in 12 years, but he's had 4 of them runners in the past 4 years, so technically, more recently, he has chucked a horse at the race (albeit two, in one of them years).

The one danger for us as DD backers for this race is he is only rated 142 over fences so the Ultima or even Kim Muir could come into question, currently.

 

[charlie]

Henderson has made it known on a few occasions that the 4 miler and the Bumper are his least favourite races at the Fez. I avoid anything of his in the AP lists in those races. His record in long distance races is a disgrace for a trainer of his ability. He's never won a National of any description in his entire training career.

You're calling a trainer's record over long distances a disgrace when he's won two Gold Cups. Terrible post. This is the sort of flippant drivel I expect to see on Twitter, not here. The National (in all its forms) may have eluded him, but it's not for lack of trying and he was bloody unlucky not to win on his first try with Zongalero. Can surely be afforded a bit more respect than that.

 

[charlie]

The one danger for us as DD backers for this race is he is only rated 142 over fences so the Ultima or even Kim Muir could come into question, currently.

That would suck! I couldn't see an any race price anywhere, although admittedly didn't even look.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

That would suck! I couldn't see an any race price anywhere, although admittedly didn't even look.

I might get someone to request one now :highly_amused:

 

[Lobos]

You're calling a trainer's record over long distances a disgrace when he's won two Gold Cups. Terrible post. This is the sort of flippant drivel I expect to see on Twitter, not here. The National (in all its forms) may have eluded him, but it's not for lack of trying and he was bloody unlucky not to win on his first try with Zongalero. Can surely be afforded a bit more respect than that.

Nah. A trainer of his stature should have been able to produce a horse to win a National after all these years and the horses he's had in his care. Maybe he just can't be assed to win one. Should have kept Santini and sent him down that route.

 

[charlie]

Nah. A trainer of his stature should have been able to produce a horse to win a National after all these years and the horses he's had in his care. Maybe he just can't be assed to win one. Should have kept Santini and sent him down that route.

Saddled 41 runners for the National and won multiple Gold Cups = not assed about winning the National and has a disgraceful training record over long distances.

Lost for words, let's just move back on to the NHC shall we.

 

[Lobos]

Saddled 41 runners for the National and won multiple Gold Cups = not assed about winning the National and has a disgraceful training record over long distances.

Lost for words, let's just move back on to the NHC shall we.

I am...... Just giving the reason why I'll not be backing DD :fat:

 

[OverTheLast]

Fancy Foundations gets the entry for the 3m novice chase! Interesting

 

[Lobos]

Fancy Foundations gets the entry for the 3m novice chase! Interesting

...along with Streets of Doyen. 4th place or better please! He won on the same day last year in the 3m hurdle and Cheltenham does seem to suit (1st and 3rd from 2 runs)