2022 Grand National

[Deleted member 4957]

With Team Tizz even able to get the enigmatic Elegant Escape back in the winner’s enclosure today I think Fiddlerontheroof for the Gramd National is good value at 20/1. The yard are in flying form at the minute with a RTF 32 %

His form is rock solid too, 1.5 length 2nd to Next Destination last year at Warwick who ran Galvin very close in the NHC, 2nd to Monkfish in the RSA & a very good second to Cloudy Glen in the Hennessy, should have no problems with any drying ground too. Have had a few points on e/w along with my cliff horse Discorama who I’m hoping can outrun his odds of 40/1 into a place at least.

Yep, I nicked some 25s when the weights came out and will look to go in again.
I'm thinking there'll be a period between 48 hour decs and the Friday evening when the price is there and extra places will be available before the inevitable price collapse on Saturday morning.
Will probably go off single figures...

 

[KevMc]

With Team Tizz even able to get the enigmatic Elegant Escape back in the winner’s enclosure today I think Fiddlerontheroof for the Gramd National is good value at 20/1. The yard are in flying form at the minute with a RTF 32 %

His form is rock solid too, 1.5 length 2nd to Next Destination last year at Warwick who ran Galvin very close in the NHC, 2nd to Monkfish in the RSA & a very good second to Cloudy Glen in the Hennessy, should have no problems with any drying ground too. Have had a few points on e/w along with my cliff horse Discorama who I’m hoping can outrun his odds of 40/1 into a place at least.

Just as an aside - 32% RTF is not a good %. A yard going well should be at 60+ %. 11% winners last 14 days is alright but again nothing to write home about.

 

[robith]

Do we reckon 365 will do their free each way bet offer again this year? My of my absolute favourite offers across the year that

 

[Ice]

Do we reckon 365 will do their free each way bet offer again this year? My of my absolute favourite offers across the year that

I'm hanging fire with my bets on the national to see if they do it again, as u say it's a great offer. I think they did it in the week of the national in past years so hopefully next Monday.

 

[nortonscoin200]

Just been looking at the 78 horses still left in the Grand National and I think we're in for a bit of a surprise regarding the make-up of the race.

The RP said the top 48 at this stage got in last year.

But I reckon some or even all of the horses set to carry 10stone could yet make the race. They go from number 58 to number 61. Plan of Attack is at number 60.

Here's why:

27of the top 40 who automatically qualify are doubly declared.

And 11 of the next 13 are entered in other races as well.

So that's 38 of the top 53 could go somewhere else.

But the really significant factor is that 17 of those top 40 are quoted at shorter prices by Paddy Power in their alternative engagements.

And 11 of the next 13 are also priced up shorter by PP in their other race targets.

As the majority of the horses with double engagements are Irish trained and I assume PP probably have the best handle on where they'll go.

The only reason (apart from being laid up with covid) I looked into this is because I'm sitting on a 150-1 nrnb each way ticket on Smoking Gun (effectively number 53 because Paul says Highland Hunter wont run).

Here's a list of the horses doubly engaged in race-card order.

I've capped up the horses who are a shorter price in their alternative engagements.

Minella Times - Irish Grand National
Delta Work - IGN
Easysland - B365 Gold Cup
Any Second Now - IGN
RUN WILD FRED - IGN, Gordie sez no decision made yet.
BRAHMA BULL - IGN and B365GC
BATTLEOVERDOYEN - Topham
Burrows Saint - IGN and B365GC
MOUNT IDA - IGN but Gordon sez she goes to Aintree
Longhouse Poet - IGN
SAMCRO - Topham IGN Gordie sez no decision yet.
CHATHAM STREET LAD - Topham
FARCLAS - IGN but Gordie sez he's going to Aintree again
Escaria Ten
GOOD BOY BOBBY - B365GC
Coko Beach - IGN, Gordie sez no decision yet.
CARIBEAN BOY - B365GC
Court Maid - IGN
Discorama - IGN
Enjoy D'Allen - IGN
DINGO DOLLAR - B365GC
FREEWHEELIN BOB - IGN
CLASS CONTI - IGN B365GC
Snow Leopardess - IGN
AGUSTA GOLD - IGN B365GC
PHEONIX WAY - IGN
DEISE ABA _ B365GC *****the last certain qualifier at 41
.....................................

DEATH DUTY - IGN which is where Gordie sez he goes
GO ANOTHER ONE - Scottish Grand National IGN B365GC
DOMAINE DE L'ISLE - B365GC
ECLAIR SURF - B365GC
FORTESCUE - SGN B365GC
COMMODORE - Topham
SCHOOL BOY HOURS - IGN
ROMAIN DE SENAM - Topham, B365GC
ROI MAGE - Topham
FULL BACK - B365GC
SMOKING GUN - IGN. ****number 54 in list including non runner Highland Hunter


Setting aside my interest in Smoking Gun there's another very good reason to sit up and take notice is that light-weights have a great record in the National.

Four of the last 10 winners have carried 10st 3lbs, 10st 7lbs, 10st 6lbs and 10st 3lbs.

Deise Aba - the last horse guaranteed a run - is currently set to carry 10st 7lbs.

Last year 3 of the first 6 carried 10st 3lbs or less:
1.Minella Times (no 35)10st 3lbs 11-1
5.Farclas (no34) 10st 3lbs 16-1
6. Blaklion (no40)10st 2lbs 50-1

2020 - no race

2019
4. Walk In The Mill (no36) 10st 4lbs 25-1

2018
3. Bless The Wings (no36) 10st 6lbs 40-1
5. Milansbar (no37) 10st 6lbs 25-1
6. Road To Riches (no40) 10st 5lbs 33-1

2017
5.Gas Line Boy (no37) 10st 7lbs 50-1


I haven't gone any further back because this is already ridiculously long - and there's more to come (if anyone is still reading!!!).

But the last years have thrown up a pretty extraordinary stat - one third (8 out of 24) of the horses to finish in the top 6 have come from the bottom 7 in the list.

So the other 132 horses have managed just 16 top 6 finishes between them - that's just over 12 per cent success compared to the 33 per cent for the light-weights.



So who wont turn up next week allowing some of the 42-60+ brigade to get a run.

My guess is:

Most likely absentees.....

Death Duty - Fairyhouse
Fortescue - declared at 5-day stage for SGN
Go Another One - also declared for the SGN

The Topham factor.......

Six GN horses are also declared for the Topham and it's an easy decision for a trainer to make with a doubtful stayer or something they have reservations about putting to the GN test - so I'd say 4 of these 6 probably won't run.

Battle Over Doyen
Samcro
Chatham Street Lad
Commodore
Romain De Seman
Roi Image


Gordon sez no decision has been made yet on Aintree or Fairyhouse for these two - maybe one in, one out....
Run Wild Fred
Coko Beach


9 of the top 40 GN entries are also down for the B365GC. Another 4 between 42 and 54 are also entered in the Sandown race.

They could run at Aintree and Sandown but a two-week gap is horrendous so you have to think at least 4 opt for the B365GC.

The 13 are:

Easysland
Brahma Bull
Burrow Saint
Good Boy Bobby
Caribean Boy
Dingo Dollar
Class Conti
Agusta Gold
Deise Aba
Demaine De L'Isle
Eclair Surf
Fortescue: in 5days decs at Ayr
Full Back

Horses friendless on the machine - some duplicates so maybe 2 extra absentees.
Chris's Dream 70-1
Noble Yates 95-1
Easysand 210-1
Battleoverdoyen 280-1
Class Conti 260-1
Romain De Senam 330-1

So that's 15 likely absentees plus confirmed no runner Highland Hunter - so blow me down, Smoking Gun scrapes in at number 54!!

I don't think that guesstimate is wildly optimistic either - but there is every chance Gordon chooses to run Smoking Gun at Fairyhouse instead (he's 170-1 on the machine for Aintree).

No matter - the question is who should we be looking at for each way value at very juicy prices.

This scenario would leave nrnb 100-1 shots KAUTO RIKO (no 56) a the last acceptor to make the cut and MAC TOTTIE next in line and I'd say highly likely to get in.

Both are set to carry 10t 1lbs as things stand.

Kauto Riko ran an absolute shocker in the Topham last year when he was left behind early and pulled up at Bechers first time round.

But he was a staying on fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last season and he's run well a couple of times over further in the latest campaign.

On seasonal debut he was a half length second to Two For Gold (gave 12lbs) in a 3-mile handicap chase at Doncaster and in January he was an 11l fourth behind Chantry House (gave 4lbs) in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham.

Mac Tottie has already run twice over the GN fences this season - winning the Grand Sefton and falling at the Chair in the Becher Chase.

He's a best priced 20-1 for the Topham and that's where he'll probably go as he's 4lbs better off there than in the National.

Maybe best of all at the bottom is PLAN OF ATTACK (66-1nrnb with Betfred) if he gets in on 10st at number 60 which I'd say is entirely possible.

He's run well 3 times over Cheltenham's X-Country course this winter - equalling his PB on each occasion. And there was no shame in being beaten just over 20 lengths off levels by Delta Work and Tiger.

Plan of Attack is aged 9 now and seemingly in the form of his life.

We know he stays and I imagine Darragh O'Keefe will keep the ride after being on board in all his XC spins this season.

Darragh had a good ride in the Grand National on Chris's Dream last year and was disputing 4th when he blundered and unseated 4 out.

He'll do for me and there will be worse 66-1 shots.

Four of the last 6 National winners were aged 8 or 9.

Abject apologies to anyone who has got this far but I've been put in solitary till the weekend and there's nowt else to do.

I've also put my money where my mouth is:

2.5pts each way PLAN OF ATTACK (Grand National) nrnb at 66-1 1/5th odds 1-6.

Be interested if anyone has another fancy down the bottom of the handicap- I've only had a quick glance at most of them.

 

[Spectre]

The one I've been hovering over that fits your brief but I decided to wait for extra places is Commodore NC.

I think a Grand National is made for him

 

[FinalFurlong91]

The one I've been hovering over that fits your brief but I decided to wait for extra places is Commodore NC.

I think a Grand National is made for him

He put in a serious round of jumping last time

He does that again and stays the trip its hard not to see him being in the first few home

 

[Craigy14]

I really like Eclair Surf but his participation has a double whammy of luck required…….rain and being at number 47 at present to get in.

Was hoping the rain would come for him in the Scottish National as I think he’d have gone very close off his mark prior to not being in the 6 day entries.

 

[nortonscoin200]

The one I've been hovering over that fits your brief but I decided to wait for extra places is Commodore NC.

I think a Grand National is made for him

Yep, I can see your reasoning Spectre.

Afraid I've run out of steam tonight.

But going to enjoy watching his replays tomorrow - looking forward to it.

Nice price too.

 

[nortonscoin200]

I really like Eclair Surf but his participation has a double whammy of luck required…….rain and being at number 47 at present to get in.

Was hoping the rain would come for him in the Scottish National as I think he’d have gone very close off his mark prior to not being in the 6 day entries.

Reckon he's a cert to get in Craigy at 47.

 

[Craigy14]

Reckon he's a cert to get in Craigy at 47.

Just the ground then, which at the minute, is looking like being good to soft at worst.

I suppose connections would be more likely to want to run in the Grand National on that ground than the Scottish National even though he’d prefer it softer.

 

[Dilinja]

nortonscoin200 really like POA was tempted to back him last week, like the XC angle, similar to Balko in last years GN. Didn’t pull the trigger as didn’t think he would get in. Will have a go now - thanks for the write up

 

[Dilinja]

nortonscoin200 HDB interview today in the RP. Talks about Minella, Court Maid & Poker Party

 

[Rigga]

Any chance Achille gets in here ?

Real eye catching run in midlands national before the saddle broke..

 

[Benjy23]

I'd say there's absolutely no chance he gets in.

I don't think anything below 50 will get in to be honest. Despite Norton's work on the previous page. Don't think either of the two bolded for the Scottish National were declared today either.

 

[nortonscoin200]

I'd say there's absolutely no chance he gets in.

I don't think anything below 50 will get in to be honest. Despite Norton's work on the previous page. Don't think either of the two bolded for the Scottish National were declared today either.

Haha, this is funny Benjy23 - every time I go off on one you reel me back in!!!!

At least Aintree number 58 Hill Sixteen is in the Scottish National line-up!!!!

But if I'm gonna be anywhere near right there will need to be at least 7 or 8 who opt for the Topham, Irish National or B365 Cup.

Reckon I'm a big drifter Benjy:acne:

 

[Benjy23]

Haha, this is funny Benjy23 - every time I go off on one you reel me back in!!!!

At least Aintree number 58 Hill Sixteen is in the Scottish National line-up!!!!

But if I'm gonna be anywhere near right there will need to be at least 7 or 8 who opt for the Topham, Irish National or B365 Cup.

Reckon I'm a big drifter Benjy:acne:

:welcoming: I hope you're right pal, and you've put a lot of good work and thought into it!

The reputation of the National is obviously a huge pull. How does the prize money compare to the Irish equivalent and B365 this year t​​​hough?

Topham might get a couple that connections think are non Stayers I guess. Can't see many opting for that route though.

 

[nortonscoin200]

:welcoming: I hope you're right pal, and you've put a lot of good work and thought into it!

The reputation of the National is obviously a huge pull. How does the prize money compare to the Irish equivalent and B365 this year t​​​hough?

Topham might get a couple that connections think are non Stayers I guess. Can't see many opting for that route though.

Winner gets:
Grand National 500k
Fairyhouse 250k
Sandown 90k
Topham 84k
Fairyhouse Novices Gold Cup 50k

Rich Ricci has Burrow Saint and Brahma Bull as his only entries in the National.

And the same two horses are his only entries at Fairyhouse and Sandown so I'd be amazed if he doesn't split them.

Gordon told David Jennings "I'll have 5 or 6 for the Grand National" and name-checked Mount Ida, Escaria Ten and Farclas.

But he has 8 in the top 22 at Aintree - and that's before you get to Death Duty (44) who he's earmarked for Fairyhouse.

So Gordie will probably pull 2 or 3 plus Death Duty.

Paul's already declared Highland Hunter a non runner.

So that's 5 (maybe 6) definitely out before you start looking at the 13 other horses in the top 40 entered in the Topham and the Bet365.

So I'd still say you're looking at the top 50 getting a run and maybe a few more (I'm going off one one again Benjy:angel

 

[Benjy23]

:excitement: I think you're on the right starting point with the Elliot and Mullins horses to be fair. Few of Elliot's definitely come out for the Irish National won't they, although Smoking Gun could well be one of them either way! Be surprised if Mullins doesn't run Burrows Saint again as he looked the likely winner approaching 2 out last year, so likely to be involved again. Brahma Bull could then divert though.

Connections of Fortescue must think he's getting in off 47 to have swerved the Scottish National, so maybe they've heard of a few coming out.

Topham entries before National aren't they, so hopefully get an idea then. You're wanting at least three or four to head that way I'd suggest.

​​​​​​​Interesting stuff though. For people like us at least!

 

[Quevega]

Have to admire the words and time spent in search of a horse getting a run. And who knows ?
but I’d be pretty sure it’s common for so many to have other engagements at the same stage. But most want to run here usually. For obvious reasons.
Although Elliott has plenty enough and might create some gaps.