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2022 Flat Racing Antepost thread

Was there an excuse for the poor(er) run last time out? I know you've tried to sell it but the 6lb weight for age to the 3 year olds will still apply here, with regards Above the curve etc. And those that finished either side of her are real average. Looks a decent level below her other runs this season imo.

I would've been sold up to that run. Others look like good form as you say. And those from Arc weekend I'll probably be looking to avoid for a few weeks.

On the Champions Day card... Anyone know anything about Maljooms well being, with regards the QE II stakes?
 
Soumillon lost his Aga Khan job (again) then...
 
One of my only bets on the flat really apart from the occasional muggy acca at the weekends……I’ve went on Gibraltar for WPM in the cesarewitch 20/1 with 365.

Its max field of 34 and he’s on 34 so a couple coming out pretty much guarantees a run. He’ll be bottom weight as well. Has won twice on the bounce on the flat. Hoping for a decent run for my money.
 
RIP Adagio. Heart attack on gallop this morning. :02.47-tranquillity:
 
Benjy23 said:
Was there an excuse for the poor(er) run last time out? I know you've tried to sell it but the 6lb weight for age to the 3 year olds will still apply here, with regards Above the curve etc. And those that finished either side of her are real average. Looks a decent level below her other runs this season imo.

I would've been sold up to that run. Others look like good form as you say. And those from Arc weekend I'll probably be looking to avoid for a few weeks.

On the Champions Day card... Anyone know anything about Maljooms well being, with regards the QE II stakes?
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It's a fair point Benjy and one I don't have a scientific answer for. However, it is my hunch that her run at the Curragh was intended just to keep her ticking over before her main aim for the season on Champions Day. According to RPRs, it was 5lbs worse than every other performance she's put in over the last 12 months and I can't help but feel that she hadn't been trained to peak on the day. Obviously, if she's regressed and what she produced last time out is now all that she's capable of, she's got next to no chance. However, given Twomey's comments before the Curragh run about her end of season target, I remain quietly confident that she'll be fully tuned up next weekend and capable of giving weight away to what is, in my view, a moderate crop of 3 year olds.
 
Justique @ 4/1 NRNB 365 Chandelier Stakes on Saturday.

I've also backed her AP @ 5/1 for the BC Juvenile Fillies

Edit: Not entered for the BC :beaten:
 
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Craigy14 said:
One of my only bets on the flat really apart from the occasional muggy acca at the weekends……I’ve went on Gibraltar for WPM in the cesarewitch 20/1 with 365.

Its max field of 34 and he’s on 34 so a couple coming out pretty much guarantees a run. He’ll be bottom weight as well. Has won twice on the bounce on the flat. Hoping for a decent run for my money.
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A shrewd price taken
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Prix de la foret
Kinross 4/1

Breeders cup turf sprint
Golden pal 4/1

Ascot champion sprint
Creative Force 6/1

3 iv had for the end of the flat season
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Golden pal back to his best winning his prep race

Covering the 5 1/2f in just over a minute

Hope a few took the 4s

Can't see how he loses, Highfield princess will not see which way he goes in the first 3 furlongs

Maybe I should've had a trixie on those 3 selections

Kinross won easily at 6/4, Golden pal is now 6/4-2/1 and creative force is 3/1
 
Nest running tonight at Belmont at the Big A, I just cant look past her in the distaff albeit she is quite short for it as things stands but the division is just so weak compared to her, and I would not be surprised if she wins by 10 lengths tonight and goes odds on for it
 
Zachx02 said:
Nest running tonight at Belmont at the Big A, I just cant look past her in the distaff albeit she is quite short for it as things stands but the division is just so weak compared to her, and I would not be surprised if she wins by 10 lengths tonight and goes odds on for it
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Hope you’re right Zach, she’s been one I’ve been chipping away on since running second in the Belmont. Malathaat running against Letruska too later so the market will get a shake up for sure
 
Morley Street said:
Hope you’re right Zach, she’s been one I’ve been chipping away on since running second in the Belmont. Malathaat running against Letruska too later so the market will get a shake up for sure
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She's ridiculous mate! If she isn't odds on when the market comes back for the distaff im getting more on
 
Appreciate It said:
It's a fair point Benjy and one I don't have a scientific answer for. However, it is my hunch that her run at the Curragh was intended just to keep her ticking over before her main aim for the season on Champions Day. According to RPRs, it was 5lbs worse than every other performance she's put in over the last 12 months and I can't help but feel that she hadn't been trained to peak on the day. Obviously, if she's regressed and what she produced last time out is now all that she's capable of, she's got next to no chance. However, given Twomey's comments before the Curragh run about her end of season target, I remain quietly confident that she'll be fully tuned up next weekend and capable of giving weight away to what is, in my view, a moderate crop of 3 year olds.
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Looks like she's been taken out, unlucky. ATC taken out as well, so that race is cutting up a bit.

Kyprios out of the stayers and a bit of rain about, so could see Trueshan going off short enough there.

Will have a proper look through when RP actually bother to update the cards.
 
Benjy23 said:
Looks like she's been taken out, unlucky. ATC taken out as well, so that race is cutting up a bit.

Kyprios out of the stayers and a bit of rain about, so could see Trueshan going off short enough there.

Will have a proper look through when RP actually bother to update the cards.
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I hope you’ve seen a different forecast than me because I’ve been backing Trueshan for best part of 4 months hoping for his ideal conditions and bar maybe a light shower Thursday afternoon it’s not looking like anymore. Got a gut wrenching feeling that he’ll be pulled before Saturday and kept for France. Hopefully if they water the course over the coming days they forget to turn it off
 
BookieBasher said:
I hope you’ve seen a different forecast than me because I’ve been backing Trueshan for best part of 4 months hoping for his ideal conditions and bar maybe a light shower Thursday afternoon it’s not looking like anymore. Got a gut wrenching feeling that he’ll be pulled before Saturday and kept for France. Hopefully if they water the course over the coming days they forget to turn it off
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Unfortunately I've not looked at any forecast and was just going for the fact it was raining as I typed that :glee: Apologies. Was waiting for cards before having a proper look at the racing in general, including weather forecasts.

Maybe he won't be going off short in that case! And maybe that's an antepost angle to look elsewhere...
 
BookieBasher said:
I hope you’ve seen a different forecast than me because I’ve been backing Trueshan for best part of 4 months hoping for his ideal conditions and bar maybe a light shower Thursday afternoon it’s not looking like anymore. Got a gut wrenching feeling that he’ll be pulled before Saturday and kept for France. Hopefully if they water the course over the coming days they forget to turn it off
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On the turf trap forecast they have had 4mm over night and another 9-13mm forecasted Thursday and Friday. Surely good to soft he still goes ?
 
7barrows said:
On the turf trap forecast they have had 4mm over night and another 9-13mm forecasted Thursday and Friday. Surely good to soft he still goes ?
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After his last run would you back him regardless of the ground

It's reasonably likely that running him at goodwood has had a significant negative impact on him

He simply didn't seem the horse he was last time
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
After his last run would you back him regardless of the ground

It's reasonably likely that running him at goodwood has had a significant negative impact on him

He simply didn't seem the horse he was last time
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Yes agree although he’s hardly going to need a career best to win he could run to the same RPR of his last run and that could still be enough win, so yes I probably would and Certainly at 9/4 (although I will defo wait for final decs and let the 9/4 go because AK comments are concerning). I think Saturday will be good to soft on a strip of ground that’s been unraced all season so If Alan king doesn’t run trueshan on unraced goood to soft it’s ludicrous.

On a seperate note, I can’t get away from Art power in the sprint cup, he’s a fresh horse this season and campaigned for the autumn with his career best RPR last race which is the same prep as last season. He came from the wing to place last year and has to represent some value at 8s with the likes of Rohan half the price. He’s a horse I’ve followed since a three year old, (perhaps some what of cliff horse in group 1 company however I strongly feel Saturday his best chance of getting that group 1) he’ll be hoping for some rain too!
 
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Aye, I'm not keen to back Trueshan either after that but it looks potentially a very poor renewal and on that basis he's not actually as short as I'd expect at the moment. Coltrane getting smashed by Quickthorn puts me off him being good enough, even with that upset of Trueshan, and Quickthorn's run in the Cadran is enough to put me off him. Princess Zoe another who's effort there I'd be concerned with backing up.

The 3yos are towards the top of the market, and have a pretty poor record in this race? Gone back through the last few years and there was a few relatively fancied and the likes of Strad who was beaten as a 3yo before winning it as an older horse. Waterville was impressive last time out but it's a big step from handicap to Group 1, even a weak looking one. Think the price on him has gone now. Eldar Eldarov won a very weak looking leger (at the moment) but at least that gives him Group 1 form on paper. He's not a definite runner though, and is also short enough - given the 3yo records.

Which basically bring me onto the outsiders and the only slightly interesting one I can find is Raise You? Not even sure he's a definite runner and would really highlight how poor this renewal is as a 6yo that's never even placed in a Group 1 or 2 but... Seems to be improving when being stepped up in trip, and with age. Won a group 3 on first try over 1m 6f, beating Search for a Song comfortably. He's run a 111 RPR there, only 2lb below Trueshan and Coltrane's performance LTO and has actually ran a 117 RPR this season. Doesn't give him all that much to find with most of these, other than peak Trueshan. Was held up too far back and never really got involved in the Irish Leger last time, although was staying on at the finish suggesting an extra 2 furlong isn't an issue, and there's nothing in the sort of Kyprios quality/form coming here. Almost tempted with a speculative each way

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