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2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

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kinloch brae said:
The race will answer the questions. I think Kempton and Cheltenham are chalk and cheese. Kempton is a sharper track with the three fences in the home straight, Cheltenham just has one, and of course the hill. That finish can change any race, as it did when Champ won this race. They could have run Bravemansgame at Cheltenham this season, but they ran Threeunderthrufive instead. Why was that? Why all the chat about going to Aintree? Why big up the King George as his Gold Cup? All that doesn't strike me as a show of confidence.
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I agree that cheltenham is a stiffer test, I just think a little too much is made of how much stiffer it is, the way a lot of people talk you would think 3m at kempton is like 2m 4f at cheltenham or something, which I think is a bit silly. You have the hill at the end, but you also have a downhill part that horses freewheel down which you could argue gives them a breather before they approach the hill.

I think BMG not going to cheltenham this season and nicholls talking about the king george is just another sign of nicholls anti cheltenham attitude he seems to be adopting of late, I'm not sure that indicates a lack of confidence in BMG though. Form-wise nicholls possibly had the best juvenile of last season in monmiral, who beat the triumph second at aintree, yet he avoided cheltenham with him too for easier pickings at aintree, but on that aintree run he could have easily won the triumph or gone very close, which shows that even when he has the ammo he is reluctant to go to cheltenham.
 
Exar Essay said:
I'd agree he was outpaced by Bob ... but he was outstayed by GDM and very nearly by Bear Ghylls who wasn't even in the picture with a furlong to go. For all that Bob put on the after burners, BMG's engine failed too.
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I think its easy to see a horse being passed at the end of a race and assume it is because he didn't stay the trip, but I think the fact that BMG was the only horse who was actually trying to go with bob was the reason that he tired late. Gdm and bear ghylls were further back and closed him down late because BMG was trying to go quicker than he was capable to actually win the race imo, whereas the others were only playing for places at that point.

If you go back and watch the grade 1 at the drf last year that GDM won you will see stattler being passed/closed down late on over 2m 6f after trying to set a good pace and then go with GDM at the business end, you could make the arguement on that run that stattler didn't stay or his engine failed, yet it was his staying power that won him a 3m chase a few weeks ago.

I feel its a similar scenario with BMG, and none of his runs this season would make me worry to much about him not staying ​​​​​​​at cheltenham, but its only an educated guess at this point and I may be proved wrong.
 
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riccirich said:
I think its easy to see a horse being passed at the end of a race and assume it is because he didn't stay the trip, but I think the fact that BMG was the only horse who was actually trying to go with bob was the reason that he tired late. Gdm and bear ghylls were further back and closed him down late because BMG was trying to go quicker than he was capable to actually win the race imo, whereas the others were only playing for places at that point.

If you go back and watch the grade 1 at the drf last year that GDM won you will see stattler being passed/closed down late on over 2m 6f after trying to set a good pace and then go with GDM at the business end, you could make the arguement on that run that stattler didn't stay or his engine failed, yet it was his staying power that won him a 3m chase a few weeks ago.

I feel its a similar scenario with BMG, and none of his runs this season would make me worry to much about him not staying ​​​​​​​at cheltenham, but its only an educated guess at this point and I may be proved wrong.
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I think Stattler's very interesting. I thought he was much better on his chasing debut over the shorter trip than when he fell over the line last time. He didn't get home in the Albert Bartlett last year, and ended up being trounced by Vanillier. It's a big if, but if Derek O'Connor can get Vanillier jumping, then it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if exactly the same thing happened again.
 
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riccirich Haven’t quoted you around save scrolling thumbs.

But I don’t disagree at all about the horses form this year.

I think it’s top class this year, and my only doubt is his ability to stay the hill. It’s a doubt based on one run though. As you say, that might’ve been self induced in trying to stay with Bob rather than the hill itself. A bit like Chacun, it’s hard to say off one run.

Nicholls says he’s stronger and he does look it too. That could've positively affect his ability to stay.
 
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Carnage at Taunton said:
From what I’ve seen this season, I have no doubts about him getting home. It’s not as if he ain’t winning over 3 miles!!
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That's fair enough and I wouldn't disagree on this years performances at all. It's last years run at Cheltenham that's just niggling and we all know the Chelts track can be a different beast.

I didn't return the favour by the way; who do you think wins this (assume LP turns up)?
 
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I’m not sure to be honest . I have a feeling LP might just be a better horse, but he’s been running over less distance.
If I had to choose I would trust his trainer that LP would be fine stepping up, and probably side with him….. I think!!
 
Has there been one word from the trainer to suggest that L'Homme Presse would suddenly step up in trip just to avoid the other two? If there has, I have missed it. That's what the majority thought would happen with Galopin Des Champs (and he actually had form over three miles), but as we know that idea hasn't come to fruition. If anyone has backed him for the Turners, and plenty have, I don't see why you wouldn't think he had every chance of beating the other two. Bob Olinger is very much still about what he achieved over hurdles. At this stage I don't see Capodanno as anything more than a Grade 2 horse, and it was no surprise that he was run down. As for Galopin Des Champs it has first and foremost about the visual impression he has created. If you wanted you could question the substance of both of his runs. It is a big plus for L'Homme Presse to have track form, and for me he is the most solid jumper of the three.
 
kinloch brae said:
Has there been one word from the trainer to suggest that L'Homme Presse would suddenly step up in trip just to avoid the other two? If there has, I have missed it. That's what the majority thought would happen with Galopin Des Champs (and he actually had form over three miles), but as we know that idea hasn't come to fruition. If anyone has backed him for the Turners, and plenty have, I don't see why you wouldn't think he had every chance of beating the other two. Bob Olinger is very much still about what he achieved over hurdles. At this stage I don't see Capodanno as anything more than a Grade 2 horse, and it was no surprise that he was run down. As for Galopin Des Champs it has first and foremost about the visual impression he has created. If you wanted you could question the substance of both of his runs. It is a big plus for L'Homme Presse to have track form, and for me he is the most solid jumper of the three.
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I’ve not heard anything re avoiding horses in the Turners.
Just that they may step up if ground suits that.
I was just saying if they did step up, they would avoid the other two and thinking that it’s possible that would be in their thoughts
 
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From that statement from the owner clearly if it's a dry week and starts on G/S then he'll run on the Wednesday.
 
Eggs said:
….Venetia Williams concerned she has a virus in the yard. Must be a concern for any of hers;

https://www.attheraces.com/news/202...o-some-concerns-over-well-being-of-her-string
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It would be very disappointing if he was pulled, both for punters, and the race. The implication from those comments is that he needs soft ground, which seems a little strange as three of his four wins were on good to soft. Seems a bit silly to say if it starts good to soft it will definitely end up being good. Yes, that might be true if it's a dry week.
 
Does anyone else other than myself think that Gallopin will run here rather than the Turners? if he does run here the 6-1 available on the exchanges currently will have represented excellent value.

I guess its difficult to guess what Willie is thinking and even Patrick doesn't appear to be able to work it out. When I saw Bob Olinger committed to the Turners, it made me even more convinced that Gallopin will avoid him and turn up here. Some experts think Gallopin would be more suited to the Turners but he's been full of running at the end of his races and difficult to pull up after running over the shorter distances. He has Bravemansgame to beat here whereas if he goes Turners, he has to take on Bob and L'Homme Presse.
 
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harchibald said:
Does anyone else other than myself think that Gallopin will run here rather than the Turners? if he does run here the 6-1 available on the exchanges currently will have represented excellent value.

I guess its difficult to guess what Willie is thinking and even Patrick doesn't appear to be able to work it out. When I saw Bob Olinger committed to the Turners, it made me even more convinced that Gallopin will avoid him and turn up here. Some experts think Gallopin would be more suited to the Turners but he's been full of running at the end of his races and difficult to pull up after running over the shorter distances. He has Bravemansgame to beat here whereas if he goes Turners, he has to take on Bob and L'Homme Presse.
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Agree with you on that. It's simply not his thing to be bolder with his alphas than he has to be. Originally, I was thinking and looking to Energumene vs Shishkin as symbolic that he is getting braver but his comments about CPS suggests the Ricci horse is still the alpha in his eyes. I just agree with you that WPM will revert to type. We shall see soon enough.

Personally, I'd love to see Bob vs GDC. Yes I do have AP bets on both but money isn't everything! I think this is the clash of the week, along with the Supreme race and perhaps the NH Chase too. Some might say Champion Chase and Gold Cup but novices always get myself excited!
 
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giantcauseway said:
Agree with you on that. It's simply not his thing to be bolder with his alphas than he has to be. Originally, I was thinking and looking to Energumene vs Shishkin as symbolic that he is getting braver but his comments about CPS suggests the Ricci horse is still the alpha in his eyes. I just agree with you that WPM will revert to type. We shall see soon enough.

Personally, I'd love to see Bob vs GDC. Yes I do have AP bets on both but money isn't everything! I think this is the clash of the week, along with the Supreme race and perhaps the NH Chase too. Some might say Champion Chase and Gold Cup but novices always get myself excited!
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What do you mean by revert to type ?
When has Mullins ever really ducked a challenge, and not been bold ?

It's only because he has so much ammunition and options that they are sometimes split.

Apart from Quevega vs Big Bucks I can't think of any other occasions, and even that was a difficult one as once she'd won 2 or 3 it would have been a tough ask to go up against Big Bucks on her first run of the season. And Ruby Walsh would have been a big factor in this also.
And Big Bucks could always have come over to Punchestown for the grade 1 against the boys over 3 miles she won 4 times (should have been 5 :sorrow:) if he wanted.

With regards CPS, this is a common thing for Mullins to do - i.e favour his older horses with multiple grade 1's under their belts.
He said similar about Hurricane Fly vs Faugheen.
There are other examples.
It's part sentiment and part that they're proven performers.
Although the emphasis in this situation regards CPS v Energumene was surprising, I'll admit.
 
Yes i agree with you on the novice races giantcauseway - i think its the potential of the novices to improve and the difficulty comparing irish and uk form.

Bob vs Gallopin would be some race and the supreme looks a gem this year
 
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