2022 Arkle

[Odin]

Appreciate it or ferny hollow are his most likely Arkle winner but he could run a few in all novice chases this season. I like JDB too and will keep an eye on HEC entries. He could run any of those in either the Arkle or marsh it will be interesting to see how the pecking order forms over the coming months!

I've also got my eye out for Haut En Couleurs, I just don't know where. It was really notable that when asked which of last year's Triumph horses would turn out to be the best long-term, Ruby said HEC without hesitating. Must be a really decent animal at home.

 

[jono]

One of the recent greats fell on his chase debut and went on to win the Arkle. Now, obviously that doesn't mean Ballyadam is going to replicate this, but it does mean, provided said horse comes away with no long term injuries from the fall that they should probably not be given up on, even more so in Ballyadams case where it was his first fence in public he fell at.

There’s a small chance it helps him in the long run. But as chasing debuts go it couldn’t have gone any worse really. Henry sounds fairly positive in his stable tour

He was a high-class novice hurdler last season that had schooled well over fences prior to his chasing debut at Punchestown earlier today, so it was surprising to see him fall at the first fence. We’ll regroup with him and hope to get him back on track soon.

Which if you’re a backer is encouraging. Shouldn’t be completely written off, one just for the likely lack of opposition in the race. But has to seriously step it up on his next outing with a clearer round

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I've also got my eye out for Haut En Couleurs, I just don't know where. It was really notable that when asked which of last year's Triumph horses would turn out to be the best long-term, Ruby said HEC without hesitating. Must be a really decent animal at home.

Worth remembering too that he only landed with Mullins in the weeks leading up to the festival so he had very little time to understand the horse and the fact he was confident enough to send the horse straight to a Triumph tells me plenty, definitely one to follow…

 

[jono]

Worth remembering too that he only landed with Mullins in the weeks leading up to the festival so he had very little time to understand the horse and the fact he was confident enough to send the horse straight to a Triumph tells me plenty, definitely one to follow…

I was assuming he’d be staying over hurdles for his 5 year old career before potentially going novice chasing. A route he’s used for Footpad and was muted for Saldier. Loads of potential for sure.

 

[Odin]

I was assuming he’d be staying over hurdles for his 5 year old career before potentially going novice chasing. A route he’s used for Footpad and was muted for Saldier. Loads of potential for sure.

Do you think they could get him a mark for County/Coral/MP? My initial thought when I heard the comment was that he'd struggle as a 5yo over hurdles so couldn't see what he would win. Current OR 145 after 3 runs

 

[charlie]

I didn’t realise they pre-Newmarket Willie said ‘Ferny is in great shape. I imagine he will go chasing although I haven’t spoken to connections. We haven’t made any plans made yet for anything to start off. We’re only in early October”

What’s interesting about the above is we know CPS are not like RR or MOL or most owners for that matter. They are very stand offish and let Willie do what he likes, so for me I have Ferny down for the Arkle and will be topping up 14’s with 10’s.

It’s an absolute no brainer of a bet IMO. If he pissed up in a 2m Chase tomorrow regardless of how facile, his price would probably be 7/2 come the weekend, so I think 10/1 is an absolute ante post must. You can’t beat BO, win at Cheltenham and be regarded as the most exciting horse in a yard as deep as Willies, without being a good bet at a double figure price, can you?

 

[Odin]

I didn’t realise they pre-Newmarket Willie said ‘Ferny is in great shape. I imagine he will go chasing although I haven’t spoken to connections. We haven’t made any plans made yet for anything to start off. We’re only in early October”

What’s interesting about the above is we know CPS are not like RR or MOL or most owners for that matter. They are very stand offish and let Willie do what he likes, so for me I have Ferny down for the Arkle and will be topping up 14’s with 10’s.

It’s an absolute no brainer of a bet IMO. If he pissed up in a 2m Chase tomorrow regardless of how facile, his price would probably be 7/2 come the weekend, so I think 10/1 is an absolute ante post must. You can’t beat BO, win at Cheltenham and be regarded as the most exciting horse in a yard as deep as Willies, without being a good bet at a double figure price, can you?

Completely agree with all of this. He HAS to be on side at that price, preferably with cashout to cover our backs

 

[Craigy14]

I didn’t realise they pre-Newmarket Willie said ‘Ferny is in great shape. I imagine he will go chasing although I haven’t spoken to connections. We haven’t made any plans made yet for anything to start off. We’re only in early October”

What’s interesting about the above is we know CPS are not like RR or MOL or most owners for that matter. They are very stand offish and let Willie do what he likes, so for me I have Ferny down for the Arkle and will be topping up 14’s with 10’s.

It’s an absolute no brainer of a bet IMO. If he pissed up in a 2m Chase tomorrow regardless of how facile, his price would probably be 7/2 come the weekend, so I think 10/1 is an absolute ante post must. You can’t beat BO, win at Cheltenham and be regarded as the most exciting horse in a yard as deep as Willies, without being a good bet at a double figure price, can you?

Yeah have to agree, if he’s aimed at the Arkle and we know he’s in rude health for this season 10/1 will be a steal. The only issue I have is how he comes back from the injury, as a couple of people have mentioned previously.

From what I remember at the time of the injury, was if he had had a speedy recovery/healed quickly he would have been back for the second half of the season. It obviously wasn’t as quick to heal so they left him off for the remainder. Hopefully that has paid off.

Also you have the 24 length Supreme winner in Appreciate It, why move him from 2m when he’s hammered everything at the distance? It’s a shoe in for WPM on paper. Flip side people will say Ferny would be a shoe in, so I can see both sides, but AI has the three grade 1’s against his name over obstacles and Ferny doesn’t.

I suppose waiting for a chase debut entry for both may be the way to go but we know WPM doesn’t focus too much on distances with novices, will need to check Saxons notes on Arkle target races :encouragement:

 

[Odin]

Yeah have to agree, if he’s aimed at the Arkle and we know he’s in rude health for this season 10/1 will be a steal. The only issue I have is how he comes back from the injury, as a couple of people have mentioned previously.

From what I remember at the time of the injury, was if he had had a speedy recovery/healed quickly he would have been back for the second half of the season. It obviously wasn’t as quick to heal so they left him off for the remainder. Hopefully that has paid off.

Also you have the 24 length Supreme winner in Appreciate It, why move him from 2m when he’s hammered everything at the distance? It’s a shoe in for WPM on paper. Flip side people will say Ferny would be a shoe in, so I can see both sides, but AI has the three grade 1’s against his name over obstacles and Ferny doesn’t.

I suppose waiting for a chase debut entry for both may be the way to go but we know WPM doesn’t focus too much on distances with novices, will need to check Saxons notes on Arkle target races :encouragement:

I think the argument to move AI would be that Ferny beat him over 2m and is (was?) the superior animal over that distance. In that regard I see it as slightly different to the usual 'why move if they win over that distance?' Furthermore, they never saw AI as a 2miler I think I'm right in believing. Either way, it's all dependent on Ferny being fully fit when he returns, but this is one of the few AP prices where that seems to be fully factored in as things stand.

 

[charlie]

Yeah have to agree, if he’s aimed at the Arkle and we know he’s in rude health for this season 10/1 will be a steal. The only issue I have is how he comes back from the injury, as a couple of people have mentioned previously.

From what I remember at the time of the injury, was if he had had a speedy recovery/healed quickly he would have been back for the second half of the season. It obviously wasn’t as quick to heal so they left him off for the remainder. Hopefully that has paid off.

Also you have the 24 length Supreme winner in Appreciate It, why move him from 2m when he’s hammered everything at the distance? It’s a shoe in for WPM on paper. Flip side people will say Ferny would be a shoe in, so I can see both sides, but AI has the three grade 1’s against his name over obstacles and Ferny doesn’t.

I suppose waiting for a chase debut entry for both may be the way to go but we know WPM doesn’t focus too much on distances with novices, will need to check Saxons notes on Arkle target races :encouragement:

There was talk of Ferny missing Cheltenham and potentially making Punchestown, which is always a good sign. He had a stress fracture but it wasn't showing up on an x-ray which is a very good sign for a long term recovery. He was supposed to be off for 4-6 weeks from Xmas to Cheltenham, so they must have just put him away.

Appreciate It's Supreme win was as facile as it was impressive, so has to be taken with a pinch of salt IMO. Would he have beaten FH or BO? He certainly wouldn't have won by 24 lengths. I take the seemingly unpopular view that AI will go up in trip in time. I could be wrong and expect 101 reasons as to why they'd be mad to do that, but I think thats what will happen. He's huge and he looks like a chaser, and has been flattered vs shit 2 milers. He's 7 going on 8 and they may have an eye on the Gold Cup at 9.

 

[Lobos]

Not backed FH and won't now at the prices. For me Appreciate starts off as Willie's Arkle horse so unless Ferney runs there as well he'll surely go Marsh and bump into Bollinger. You also have the worry re his injury and whether he'd come back the same. It wasn't just a stone bruise it was a fractured pelvis which would put me off. Also he is very inexperienced having had so few racecourse appearance's and that might also catch him out. Far too many negatives for me to consider him at current prices. He's one for nearer the time me thinks or at least when we've seen him a couple more times.

 

[jack1092]

I was gutted with Ballyadam today, I waited all morning for the race, put my paint brushes down, made a cup of tea and sat back and I couldn’t see him 30 seconds into the race!!
I had backed him for the Arkle and TWAR so hoping there is still a bit of life in the TWAR. There is still a little hope that he could be an Arkle horse if he musters up something impressive next time out or he could be this seasons Felix Desjay, a horse you hope will be a great ante post price but as the season progresses you realise is just a cheap mountain bike

TKP- this is funny, i literally used Felix as an example to my mate when discussing the Ballyadam. I think you're onto something there.

 

[OverTheLast]

I've also got my eye out for Haut En Couleurs, I just don't know where. It was really notable that when asked which of last year's Triumph horses would turn out to be the best long-term, Ruby said HEC without hesitating. Must be a really decent animal at home.

Yep, Odin, I really am excited for him

 

[Spectre]

If you were the Masterson's what would have to say if Willie said I'm moving you up in trip to give Cheveley a clear run at the Arkle with Ferny?

They have the current Supreme Novice Hurdler, and that race is the outstanding route for future Arkle winners. Not only that he completely humped the opposition in the Supreme Novices putting up an RPR of 165 on the same Old Course the Arkle will be run on. That RPR was achieved over 2 miles and is good enough to win most Supreme Novices of recent memory.

Despite him being the best trainer of all time, I'm not sure what Willie could possibly say for me not to move the horse (and the others), out of the yard immediately if he was prepared to treat me with that kind of contempt.

I don't believe he would of course, and that's why I am convinced Appreciate It goes to the Arkle. Unless there's a plan afoot and he thinks he's good enough to topple Honeysuckle. But surely that job should fall to Ferny Hollow if there is any line of thinking that way. Which for what it's worth I would do, as FH has time to go novice chasing next season, and still be a Queen Mum horse later.

 

[Quevega]

If you were the Masterson's what would have to say if Willie said I'm moving you up in trip to give Cheveley a clear run at the Arkle with Ferny?

They have the current Supreme Novice Hurdler, and that race is the outstanding route for future Arkle winners. Not only that he completely humped the opposition in the Supreme Novices putting up an RPR of 165 on the same Old Course the Arkle will be run on. That RPR was achieved over 2 miles and is good enough to win most Supreme Novices of recent memory.

Despite him being the best trainer of all time, I'm not sure what Willie could possibly say for me not to move the horse (and the others), out of the yard immediately if he was prepared to treat me with that kind of contempt.

I don't believe he would of course, and that's why I am convinced Appreciate It goes to the Arkle. Unless there's a plan afoot and he thinks he's good enough to topple Honeysuckle. But surely that job should fall to Ferny Hollow if there is any line of thinking that way. Which for what it's worth I would do, as FH has time to go novice chasing next season, and still be a Queen Mum horse later.

If they're both really good chasers though, he'll most likely split them and try and win 2 races at Cheltenham itself.
Could go the 2 darts route also, but depends on opposition, ground and jockey's etc etc.

 

[darlojim]

If you were the Masterson's what would have to say if Willie said I'm moving you up in trip to give Cheveley a clear run at the Arkle with Ferny?

They have the current Supreme Novice Hurdler, and that race is the outstanding route for future Arkle winners. Not only that he completely humped the opposition in the Supreme Novices putting up an RPR of 165 on the same Old Course the Arkle will be run on. That RPR was achieved over 2 miles and is good enough to win most Supreme Novices of recent memory.

Despite him being the best trainer of all time, I'm not sure what Willie could possibly say for me not to move the horse (and the others), out of the yard immediately if he was prepared to treat me with that kind of contempt.

I don't believe he would of course, and that's why I am convinced Appreciate It goes to the Arkle. Unless there's a plan afoot and he thinks he's good enough to topple Honeysuckle. But surely that job should fall to Ferny Hollow if there is any line of thinking that way. Which for what it's worth I would do, as FH has time to go novice chasing next season, and still be a Queen Mum horse later.

Would he not just tell him what he has seen with him since hes been back in work he could be a potential gold cup horse one day and that would be enough?

 

[DeeBee]

If you were the Masterson's what would have to say if Willie said I'm moving you up in trip to give Cheveley a clear run at the Arkle with Ferny?

They have the current Supreme Novice Hurdler, and that race is the outstanding route for future Arkle winners. Not only that he completely humped the opposition in the Supreme Novices putting up an RPR of 165 on the same Old Course the Arkle will be run on. That RPR was achieved over 2 miles and is good enough to win most Supreme Novices of recent memory.

Despite him being the best trainer of all time, I'm not sure what Willie could possibly say for me not to move the horse (and the others), out of the yard immediately if he was prepared to treat me with that kind of contempt.

I don't believe he would of course, and that's why I am convinced Appreciate It goes to the Arkle. Unless there's a plan afoot and he thinks he's good enough to topple Honeysuckle. But surely that job should fall to Ferny Hollow if there is any line of thinking that way. Which for what it's worth I would do, as FH has time to go novice chasing next season, and still be a Queen Mum horse later.

I don’t think he would move AI up in trip just to give Ferny a clear run at the Arkle.. but if he tells the owners that Ferny is the best 2 miler he has and AI is the best 2.5 miler and potential gold cup horse.. what are you gonna say? Force his hand and run him in the Arkle and come 2nd to Ferny as you did in the bumper? Or take belief that you have the stables best 2.5 miler which may even unlock some improvement?

 

[Spectre]

Ferny has been out for a season, and unless something happened on the track to change my mind I'd want my Supreme Novices winner in the Arkle.

The only way I'd be persuaded differently is if Willie put them up against each other at some point in the season, but he'll surely keep them apart.

 

[archie]

At this moment in time, Willie probably hasn't decided where they'll start out or at what distance never mind where they'll end up.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

At this moment in time, Willie probably hasn't decided where they'll start out or at what distance never mind where they'll end up.

I remember an interview, can't remember if it was with Patrick or Ruby but basically eluded to the fact that Willie has plans well ahead of time, so I suspect he'll have some idea at the very least.

If I can find the interview I shall post it, but it was only a 5 second section so may be like looking for a needle in a haystack.