-
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
Quevega
FJPatron - DGCup Winner 2026
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2018
- Messages
- 22,462
- Reaction score
- 6,783
- Points
- 83
Riviere detel jumped very very well for a debut.
She looked very useful, but the race was not very good.
I'd say they'd be delighted with that for a first time up though.
I'd agree with others that there's no need to think about trips right now as she jumps so well.
The French bred four yr olds that will be 5 in March are getting closer to winning the arkle every year, it could even become a trend.
This one is probably not at that level though.
She looked very useful, but the race was not very good.
I'd say they'd be delighted with that for a first time up though.
I'd agree with others that there's no need to think about trips right now as she jumps so well.
The French bred four yr olds that will be 5 in March are getting closer to winning the arkle every year, it could even become a trend.
This one is probably not at that level though.
Big Bucks
Member
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2018
- Messages
- 3,627
- Reaction score
- 502
- Points
- 83
Hurricane fly
Fat Jockey Patreon Est. March 2022
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2017
- Messages
- 4,814
- Reaction score
- 846
- Points
- 83
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
JackieMoon33
Professional Fat Jockey (Probably one for next yea
- Joined
- Nov 17, 2016
- Messages
- 5,787
- Reaction score
- 1,845
- Points
- 83
As in he'll stay over hurdles this season and novice chasing next? I’m trying to find out some info on him but no joy. Probably have to wait until a stable your.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Yeah, I suspect so though have seen nothing to say either way currently.
I am also keen on French Aseel over a fence next season, but that depends how he goes over hurdles this coming season, as I think he could be a really good horse myself.
JackieMoon33
Professional Fat Jockey (Probably one for next yea
- Joined
- Nov 17, 2016
- Messages
- 5,787
- Reaction score
- 1,845
- Points
- 83
The thing with staying another season over hurdles is that he’ll either have to be plotted up for a handicap or good enough for graded races. I’m not sure either would make sense so despite his inexperience, I think they’ll crack on with chasing.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
He is only rated 145 so could easily take on a couple of Graded races early on in the season with the 4yo allowance and if beat he will likely drop a few lbs, then onto the handicap route, or they could just have a quiet season altogether with a view to chasing next season. I think he'll be best suited by going up in trip too, I can't say the same about French Aseel, I think he looks a very good 2miler (easy to say I guess, as he's one from one over the trip :highly_amused
.
JackieMoon33
Professional Fat Jockey (Probably one for next yea
- Joined
- Nov 17, 2016
- Messages
- 5,787
- Reaction score
- 1,845
- Points
- 83
He is only rated 145 so could easily take on a couple of Graded races early on in the season with the 4yo allowance and if beat he will likely drop a few lbs, then onto the handicap route, or they could just have a quiet season altogether with a view to chasing next season. I think he'll be best suited by going up in trip too, I can't say the same about French Aseel, I think he looks a very good 2miler (easy to say I guess, as he's one from one over the trip :highly_amused
Gars En Noir is 5yo so it’s straight into open company for him. Going up in trip is a possibility which is why I shortlisted him for both as a backup. Need a stable tour now for a positive snippet.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Yeah, keep forgetting about Gars En Noir. Need to see him run again as he was disappointing on his first start for Willie.
Quevega
FJPatron - DGCup Winner 2026
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2018
- Messages
- 22,462
- Reaction score
- 6,783
- Points
- 83
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
I'm only hoping he takes to fences based on the physical impression I got of him on his hurdles debut. He also gave a couple of hurdles a fair bit of daylight too during that run, so I don't think they would pose a problem for him. There's very little from a breeding standpoint to get too excited about.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Is Appreciate It a bad price at 3/1?
Obviously for any horse, yet to jump a fence, in October, it should be. But given the last few years and how the race has tended to unfold...
Shishkin last summer saw his price come down from 5/1 (in April) to 3/1 at the start of November.
Altior was a general 5/2 - 11/4 by the end of September in his Arkle season.
Last season ended with the following novice hurdlers as highest rated:
160 - Appreciate It
159 - Bob Olinger
156 - James du Berlais
155 - Galopin des Champs, My Drogo
153 - Monmiral
152 - Ahoy Senor
151 - Quilixious
150 - Ferny Hollow, Gaillard du Mesnil, Vanillier
Ferny Hollow has been touted for a novice chase campaign.
And connections have touted an Arkle campaign for James du Berlais.
But away from a potential stablemate, there are no others that high that look likely to take in the race.
The record of high class hurdlers in the Arkle is ridiculously strong as well. Taking all hurdlers who were rated 155+ over the last 10 years reads:
Shishkin - 159 - Won
Footpad - 157 - Won (after a champion hurdle campaign)
Petit Mouchoir - 164 - 3rd/4 (after a champion hurdle campaign)
Altior - 160 - Won
Douvan - 161 - Won
Un de Sceaux - 161 - Won
Champagne Fever - 157 - 2nd
Grandouet - 156 - 6th(after a champion hurdle campaign)
Rock on Ruby - 160 - 8th(after a champion hurdle campaign)
Simonsig - 158 - Won
Overturn - 166 - 4th(after a champion hurdle campaign)
Resulting in 11311126814.
Removing horses who came off the back of previous champion hurdle campaigns (not novices) gives 111121.
Highly rated novice hurdlers (155+) have an incredible record in the Arkle. The transition is almost faultless.
Even if they translated that same standard over a fence, it would usually be good enough but they usually always improve.
Shishkin 159 (hurdles) > 169 (by the end of his novice chase season) +10lb
Footpad 157 > 166 +9lb
Altior 160 > 175 +15lb
Douvan 159 > 169 +10lb
Un de Sceaux 159 > 168 +9lb
Champagne Fever 157 (no change)
Simonsig 158 > 160 +2lb
Already there's a mighty big leap for most to make with Appreciate It at 160.
If he improves just 4-5lbs. Which could be thought of as conservative given his size and scope suggests he's chaser, and a likely very good one at that.
Then it's almost an impossible task?
His Supreme field was very poor. There's no getting around that.
But he absolutely bolted in. Where question marks over 2 miles were well and truly put to bed over hurdles.
I've no reason to think that'll change over a fence.
Nicky Henderson is a specialist for 2 mile chasers with 4 winners in the last 10 renewals. He amazingly had no novice hurdlers at the festival last season and is lacking even an obvious candidate for the race, let alone looking to have a potential winner.
However
Mullins could potentially have 2 horses in the same yard who could give Appreciate it something to think about in Ferny Hollow and James du Berlais.
There's no getting around the fact that Ferny Hollow could potentially be a bit of a freak. To get a rating of 150 after a maiden hurdle run is huge.
They've still not committed to a chasing campaign, and given he'll be coming back from an injury where he has to prove he's as good and then better. That's enough for me to hold fire, for now on him. Without his setback last season though everything pointed to him being a big player and almost certain to be a mid 150's horse at the very least.
James du Berlais would be joining a group of horses who came off the back of a champion hurdle run the season prior where the results read a rather poor 13684. His run was very much a throw of the dice though. And at just 5 years old. He's not coming off the back of a long career and a change of codes. His Spring campaign actually mirrors Footpad in running in the champion hurdle and then going right up in trip to 3 miles at Punchestown. Given his reputation in France he has to be taken very seriously over fences which should be much more to his liking. Personally i'd see him as ideally suited to the Marsh. He has plenty of 2m+ form on soft and heavy in France and Mullins was quick to point out he'd want soft ground before his champion hurdle run. But I don't think he's a bad bet at 33/1 when the owners have muted this race in mind, at least as an early season aim in their minds.
The only thing stopping me from going in with 3/1 for Appreciate It is waiting to see a few more confirmations of his well being following his April setback.
And an idea on whether Ferny Hollow goes hurdling or chasing. Otherwise, for me. And this will not be for many.
He's a 160 rated hurdler. Trained by Mullins. He goes off odds on. And he wins.
Note I have also backed Ballyadam after he was declared on Sunday for tomorrow. Unibet were the last offering 33/1.
There's every chance he follows Appreciate It home throughout the 2 grade ones in Ireland. And a heavy beating could even force them to try their luck over further (having tried, albeit unsuccessfully at Aintree) That said he could very well be the second best 2 mile novice hurdler in Ireland for the year. Certainly outside of the Mullins yard He'd have lost no matter what, but watching back the Supreme he was travelling very well when he hit 2 out. A mistake which really should have put him out of the places. He stayed on well and got further hampered by the fall of Blue Lord at the last. I'm not a fan of flat horses going over a fence so i'd be disappointed if Cape Gentleman beats him tomorrow and a win should set him on the path to the Arkle.
Obviously for any horse, yet to jump a fence, in October, it should be. But given the last few years and how the race has tended to unfold...
Shishkin last summer saw his price come down from 5/1 (in April) to 3/1 at the start of November.
Altior was a general 5/2 - 11/4 by the end of September in his Arkle season.
Last season ended with the following novice hurdlers as highest rated:
160 - Appreciate It
159 - Bob Olinger
156 - James du Berlais
155 - Galopin des Champs, My Drogo
153 - Monmiral
152 - Ahoy Senor
151 - Quilixious
150 - Ferny Hollow, Gaillard du Mesnil, Vanillier
Ferny Hollow has been touted for a novice chase campaign.
And connections have touted an Arkle campaign for James du Berlais.
But away from a potential stablemate, there are no others that high that look likely to take in the race.
The record of high class hurdlers in the Arkle is ridiculously strong as well. Taking all hurdlers who were rated 155+ over the last 10 years reads:
Shishkin - 159 - Won
Footpad - 157 - Won (after a champion hurdle campaign)
Petit Mouchoir - 164 - 3rd/4 (after a champion hurdle campaign)
Altior - 160 - Won
Douvan - 161 - Won
Un de Sceaux - 161 - Won
Champagne Fever - 157 - 2nd
Grandouet - 156 - 6th(after a champion hurdle campaign)
Rock on Ruby - 160 - 8th(after a champion hurdle campaign)
Simonsig - 158 - Won
Overturn - 166 - 4th(after a champion hurdle campaign)
Resulting in 11311126814.
Removing horses who came off the back of previous champion hurdle campaigns (not novices) gives 111121.
Highly rated novice hurdlers (155+) have an incredible record in the Arkle. The transition is almost faultless.
Even if they translated that same standard over a fence, it would usually be good enough but they usually always improve.
Shishkin 159 (hurdles) > 169 (by the end of his novice chase season) +10lb
Footpad 157 > 166 +9lb
Altior 160 > 175 +15lb
Douvan 159 > 169 +10lb
Un de Sceaux 159 > 168 +9lb
Champagne Fever 157 (no change)
Simonsig 158 > 160 +2lb
Already there's a mighty big leap for most to make with Appreciate It at 160.
If he improves just 4-5lbs. Which could be thought of as conservative given his size and scope suggests he's chaser, and a likely very good one at that.
Then it's almost an impossible task?
His Supreme field was very poor. There's no getting around that.
But he absolutely bolted in. Where question marks over 2 miles were well and truly put to bed over hurdles.
I've no reason to think that'll change over a fence.
Nicky Henderson is a specialist for 2 mile chasers with 4 winners in the last 10 renewals. He amazingly had no novice hurdlers at the festival last season and is lacking even an obvious candidate for the race, let alone looking to have a potential winner.
However
Mullins could potentially have 2 horses in the same yard who could give Appreciate it something to think about in Ferny Hollow and James du Berlais.
There's no getting around the fact that Ferny Hollow could potentially be a bit of a freak. To get a rating of 150 after a maiden hurdle run is huge.
They've still not committed to a chasing campaign, and given he'll be coming back from an injury where he has to prove he's as good and then better. That's enough for me to hold fire, for now on him. Without his setback last season though everything pointed to him being a big player and almost certain to be a mid 150's horse at the very least.
James du Berlais would be joining a group of horses who came off the back of a champion hurdle run the season prior where the results read a rather poor 13684. His run was very much a throw of the dice though. And at just 5 years old. He's not coming off the back of a long career and a change of codes. His Spring campaign actually mirrors Footpad in running in the champion hurdle and then going right up in trip to 3 miles at Punchestown. Given his reputation in France he has to be taken very seriously over fences which should be much more to his liking. Personally i'd see him as ideally suited to the Marsh. He has plenty of 2m+ form on soft and heavy in France and Mullins was quick to point out he'd want soft ground before his champion hurdle run. But I don't think he's a bad bet at 33/1 when the owners have muted this race in mind, at least as an early season aim in their minds.
The only thing stopping me from going in with 3/1 for Appreciate It is waiting to see a few more confirmations of his well being following his April setback.
And an idea on whether Ferny Hollow goes hurdling or chasing. Otherwise, for me. And this will not be for many.
He's a 160 rated hurdler. Trained by Mullins. He goes off odds on. And he wins.
Note I have also backed Ballyadam after he was declared on Sunday for tomorrow. Unibet were the last offering 33/1.
There's every chance he follows Appreciate It home throughout the 2 grade ones in Ireland. And a heavy beating could even force them to try their luck over further (having tried, albeit unsuccessfully at Aintree) That said he could very well be the second best 2 mile novice hurdler in Ireland for the year. Certainly outside of the Mullins yard He'd have lost no matter what, but watching back the Supreme he was travelling very well when he hit 2 out. A mistake which really should have put him out of the places. He stayed on well and got further hampered by the fall of Blue Lord at the last. I'm not a fan of flat horses going over a fence so i'd be disappointed if Cape Gentleman beats him tomorrow and a win should set him on the path to the Arkle.
Atlantic Viking
Member
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2021
- Messages
- 3,765
- Reaction score
- 1,278
- Points
- 83
Ballyadam faller at the first fence, absolutely clattered it, horrible fall but sounds like he got up.
FinalFurlong91
Member
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2020
- Messages
- 8,505
- Reaction score
- 2,774
- Points
- 83
- Age
- 34
I missed the start of the race and he was already on the deck when I loaded the stream
Sounds like he jumps a fence as well as he jumped a hurdle then