Elegant Escape sees my shilling, as does another horse already mentioned by you shrewdies, in KIMBERLITE CANDY (20s generally).
KC is the #1 selection on Soft ground.
- There's a big contrast with Elegant Escape (Welsh GN winner at 6 years old), insofar as Kimberlite Candy has been afforded time by connections to mature into a steeplechaser, and is doing well this year - his third over fences.
- Good first run this season in December's Becher Chase (3m2f, soft, 18 runners) over the GN fences - staying-on 2nd (2.5l) off OR137 to Walk In The Mill. This was followed by a good win in the Warwick Classic (3m5f, soft, 13 runners, carrying 11st4), by 10l. RPRs gave him 157, with the handicapper going up to 150, his GN mark.
- This is very similar to a certain One For Arthur's prep in 2017. Even the way the races were run - One For Arthur staying on in the Becher, too - is similar. Both eight years old in these iterations, and off the same marks, and heading to Aintree off an 80-odd day break.
Sure, the break length is relatively unusual, but One For Arthur’s the only GN winner for 30+ years without a post-weights prep, but he’s set the precedent, and both Durham Edition (1990, 102 days) and Mely Moss (2000, 345 days) came within 1 1/4l of winning with a longer break.
Also, Kimberlite Candy goes well fresh: won or near-missed (i.e. <4L or so) on return from three of his last four breaks of 50 days or more.
- While Soft is the ideal ground here - with two inadequate runs last season over 3m5f/more on quicker going - his Eider performance is better than suggested. A 14l fifth was after a poor start to the race on the better side of Good to Soft. While he's improving and getting stronger, cut is still more desirable.
- Two prior runs counts against him, though (One For Arthur had a prep at Kelso also): Miinnehoma (1994) the last winner with less than three, but a few have come home second since then with similarly light campaigns - Suny Bay, Mely Moss (no runs!), Clan Royal, Black Apalachi, Cappa Bleu and Pleasant Company.
- Slated to carry 10st 4lbs if Tiger Roll runs, and 10st 12lbs if not. Either way, this still makes it possibly winnable - One For Arthur carried 10st 11lbs in 2017.
- Of 15 chases, 10 have been at 3 miles or longer, and he has a 50% win or near-miss (<4L) record.
- Pedigree is absolutely fantastic for a GN winner and staying chaser:
From the family of high-class stayer Beau and half-brother to Hawkes Point (close 2nd in Welsh GN);
Sire - Flemensfirth (sire of 3 GN runners-up – King John’s Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic Of Light);
Damsire - Be My Native (dam-sire of GN runner-up Black Apalachi [and Native River come to that]);
Dam-side - both Wild Risk X Factor (Le Bavard), and Menelek is involved as third damsire (sired Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy), and Menelek mares have always been a big quality source for staying chasers.
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If it's soft then KC has a huge, huge chance.
