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2018 Grand National

Faugheen_Machine said:
What price will you stop backing Tiger Roll at Ista? He has to go off favourite, doesn't he?
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I'm in for decent money at 40/1, pressed at 20/1 and again 16/1, I'm not intending having too much more but I can't see a horse in the field with better crudentials and he'll probably go off somewhere between 7/1 and 10/1.
I'll keep pressing at 16/1 but will think twice at shorter....
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Anyone fancy a Tiger Woods (masters) / Tiger Roll (national) double?? I couldn't resist:highly_amused:
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That's a LoveRacing kind of bet !

I think it's Mayo that puts up the Spring double (Master/National) thread...
 
I can't remember the last National winner to win at the Festival.
 
archie said:
I can't remember the last National winner to win at the Festival.
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I can't think of one either Archie, I don't think it's happened since I followed racing, but it wouldn't be a stat that'd put me off.

Placed horses have gone on to win at Aintree so I can't see why it'd be any different for Festival winners.
 
The way the race is run I think the Cross Country is the ideal prep, certainly not put off by the fact Tiger Roll won at Chelt...
 
Istabraq said:
The way the race is run I think the Cross Country is the ideal prep, certainly not put off by the fact Tiger Roll won at Chelt...
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I thought the same about COC last year, and he managed to find one too good come the GN. That said, at them prices I'd be more than happy with a place if nothing else :)
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I thought the same about COC last year, and he managed to find one too good come the GN. That said, at them prices I'd be more than happy with a place if nothing else :)
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It's a very difficult race to predict now CorD, since the fence modifications they are going quicker than ever placing an even greater emphasis on stamina and as there's nothing in the calendar at this distance we're almost guessing at whether a horse is suited to such a test.
The trends are changing, the only solid consistency is that recent run, so whether it's a competitive race at Cheltenham or hacking round in a class 4 2m hurdle race at Catterick is irrelevant, a recent run is necessary.
The cross country is run at below racing speed for over 3m, twists, turns, banks etc prevent the horses from reaching proper racing speed until they come out onto the course proper, so it might appear the 3m 6f race is an extreme test of stamina but that's not a view I share, Cause of Causes beat everything bar the winner so tackling the cross country is hardly a negative in my eyes....
 
Istabraq said:
It's a very difficult race to predict now CorD, since the fence modifications they are going quicker than ever placing an even greater emphasis on stamina and as there's nothing in the calendar at this distance we're almost guessing at whether a horse is suited to such a test.
The trends are changing, the only solid consistency is that recent run, so whether it's a competitive race at Cheltenham or hacking round in a class 4 2m hurdle race at Catterick is irrelevant, a recent run is necessary.
The cross country is run at below racing speed for over 3m, twists, turns, banks etc prevent the horses from reaching proper racing speed until they come out onto the course proper, so it might appear the 3m 6f race is an extreme test of stamina but that's not a view I share, Cause of Causes beat everything bar the winner so tackling the cross country is hardly a negative in my eyes....
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Definitely not a negative in my eyes either Ista. COC ran a cracker both at Cheltenham and in the GN last season, finding one too good amongst 40 horses should not be underestimated.

My worry with any festival runner coming in to the Grand National is whether the race in question has taken too much out of them by the time the Grand National comes around, having said that I think there is a bigger gap in days from the festival this year to the Grand National, whether that makes one bit of difference is anyone's guess.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
My worry with any festival runner coming in to the Grand National is whether the race in question has taken too much out of them by the time the Grand National comes around
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Which is a sensible concern, but the 'recent run' trend is the strongest of them all, I might do some work on what the previous winners recent runs were and if they were poodling around in 2nd gear finishing half a track behind bad horses then that might alter my approach...
 
2017 Onefor Arthur was the trend buster as he hadn't been seen since winning the big Warwick chase in Jan on soft
2016 Rule the World was beaten 20l in a G3 2m 4f novice chase on heavy
2015 Many Clouds was beaten 24l in Coneygrees Gold Cup on soft
2014 Pineau de Re was beaten a neck in Fingal Bays Pertemps win on good
2013 Auroras Encore was beaten 50+l in a listed Kelso chase on soft
2012 Neptune Collonges was beaten a neck in the Haydock trial on heavy
2011 Ballabriggs was beaten 1.5l in a 2m 6f Kelso chase
2010 Don't Push It was pulled up before last in the Pertemps final on good
2009 Mon Mome was beaten 48l in the Midlands National on good to soft
2008 Comply or Die won the Eider on good to soft

Plenty of decent efforts in there to suggest a hard race is no barrier to winning a National....
 
3 to have onside imo

Tiger Roll 25/1
I Just Know 50/1 (very keen on this one)
Buywise 50/1 (don't laugh)
 
I’ll need to check Doc but class is important and winner of a valuable race is important, I think £20k but not sure, and I Just Know hasn’t hit that despite having a nice profile...
 
Regal Encore has a lot going for him. Always a barge-pole job in the past, he seems to be finishing off his races this season and (under a cautious ride) last season was running on at the end. If his first experience of the fences hasn't put him off, I think he'll go well off 150.
 
Istabraq said:
I’ll need to check Doc but class is important and winner of a valuable race is important, I think £20k but not sure, and I Just Know hasn’t hit that despite having a nice profile...
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Please do Ista. One negative is course form.
 
I've had a few quid ew on Gas Line Boy, won over these fences in December when taking the Grand Sefton, 5th in this last year, also ran well lto in a veterans chase, should give a good run for your money, not a major betting event for me but I like to have an interest. Also have a bit on Bellshill, I'm sure he'll fulfill his potential at some point and being hunted round here then being put into the race 3 or 4 out could bring that out.
 
Hurricane fly said:
Oddschecker are claiming 5% of bets for the National have been on this one

Does it all stem from the Catterick win?
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I'd no idea any cash was going on this horse.

The Catterick win, and a sneaky hurdle race was what interested me in this horse. I think it was just shy of 20k 1st prize for the Yorkshire Nash.
 
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