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2018 Grand National

Happy as a pig in **** tonight - was in line with the chair/elbow - thought he’d got it but was down on my haunches for some time until they announced the official result!
 
Well done winners - top class horse he is.

My selection placed so my Reed/Fly double at 532/1 made a lovely profit on the each way side. The place side paid 36/1 which helps
 
So ...... A New Trend emerging ????, back an Irish horse thats preferably won the cross country chase at the Festival ??.:)
 
cpfc,
Im glad I followed you with PC. he had some very nice form the previous season. Looked laid out for the race to me. The nearer the race the more I fancied him. I even backed him again on the day with the 365 offer. cheers for the heads up.

As for one of my original picks I Just Know, I started to get a bit worried when the trainer & jockey started getting there excuses in early. Come home safe & we could do with the ground drying up, sake, the horse has won 3 times on heavy. Im afraid the alarm bells were out. Cook rode him like the occasion had got to him. He's a natural front runner who needs calm experienced pair of hands for a race like this.
 
Kevloaf said:
Still struggling to form a strong opinion on the big one. Not surprising I suppose as there are easier races literally every day to find the winner of... but my position so far:

Ante post
1 pt - 50/1 - Tiger Roll
0/5 pts e/w 50/1 - The Young Master (5 places)

Today I've added
Maggio 6 places - 100/1 0.5 pts e/w
Maggio needs a little explaining but I have heard him mentioned positivly on a podcast which comforts me a bit :highly_amused: - April 2016 he won at Aintree over 3m1f on soft ground at 50/1. Was the mildmay course but 100/1 seems a fair price. Nick Schofield was going to ride but has gone for Vicente instead so Brendan Powell takes the ride. That can't be a positive but he's 100/1 and I've had a flyer.
Bless the Wings - see below, added during the post

Skipping quite a few now but going to add another...Bless The Wings 66/1 - 6 places
Nothing original about this, purely feel like 66/1 is too big for Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy. CLEARLY wouldn't be sending the horse here with no chance when he's trying to pick up every single pot in Ireland, and I think that has been missed in the market. Obviously the horse is too old to win and all that, but I think he's the type to run really well.
Click to expand...

Well that went well :highly_amused:

I did end up going a bit mad with the B365 offer after posting about that though
 
I am so pleased for Tiger Roll and Davy. To win the XC and follow up with the GN on top of what he had already achieved is just remarkable, What a horse. I keep thinking he is 10 years old but he is only 8!!!
 
Must be the best result for the forum for quite a while based on the replies? Well done all especially those who had the big prices from earlier in the season. I didn't have him backed in bets but did have Tiger Roll in my work sweepstake. With him, Pleasant Company a bet and Bless The Wings (the wifes pick) 3rd (maybe she saw your post Kev :triumphant:) it made a for a great result :)

What a super race. What can you say about Tiger Roll. Little warrior of a horse. And Davy Russell. What a jockey. I hope we get a few more seasons out of him at the top. For me he is riding as good as ever right now and for a staying chaser, i'd have him over even Ruby Walsh. Pleasant Company ran a stormer and was jumping with aplomb especially from halfway out. Credit to him for rallying so well at the end and David Mullins is already looking like an Aintree specialist!

He wasn't a horse I backed but had to feel for connections of Blaklion being take out the race at the start. Awful.
To a lesser extent it must be pretty sickening for the Mullins yard to have missed out on the 2 big Nationals by a head in each, both to Gordon Elliott...small margins!

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Well i'm pretty sure i'll be doing exactly what I did last year on Cause of Causes and topping up on Tiger Roll throughout the year and hoping for a different result this time! Need SkyBet to open up their Cheltenham RequestaBets again :devilish: I do have a slight reservation about whether the National may have left a mark on the (or any) horse though which would be the only concern right now.

With Elliott and Mullins leading the charge, no one can argue right now that the Irish are a level clear ahead right now of the British and if it wasn't for Nicky Henderson having the likes of Altior, Might Bite, Buveur D'Air and the likes of Santini then it would be even worse! Something the Aintree festival felt the effects of that this year I felt with some of the grade 1's suffering massively. And the Irish ruled again in this race. Part is down to their domination right now but Kevin Blake on the FFP and ITV highlighted the record of Irish horses on the last 2 soft ground nationals and that came true once again with them filling the 1-2-3-4-6 positions - a massive find even putting aside the fact the Irish have the strength right now.

Just a quick look back at the record of horses at Aintree who ran their last race in the Cross Country at Cheltenham in the last 10 years...

2018
1st - 10/1 - Tiger Roll (1st in XC)
3rd - 40/1 - Bless The Wings (Fell in XC)
PU - 16/1 - The Last Samurai (3rd in XC)
BD - 50/1 Saint Are (PU in XC)

2017
2nd - 10/1 - Cause of Causes (1st in XC)

2016 & 2015
Non Runners

2014
2nd - 14/1 - Balthazaar King (1st in XC)
F - 14/1 - Big Shu (3rd in XC)

2013
17th - 100/1 - Any Currency (9th in XC)

2012
18th - 80/1 - Midnight Haze (6th in XC)

2011
UR - 100/1 - Quolibet (PU in XC)

2010
14th - 100/1 - Preists Leap (13th in XC)

2009
PU - 16/1 - L'Ami (2nd in XC)

Gives a record of 13PB22F00U0P.
Bless The Wings ran a blinder in 3rd at an unfancied price but if you limited that down to the more fancied runners in the National (20/1 and under) you'd get 1P22FP. (and if you took it literally then just back a winner of the Cross Country that goes onto Aintree and it's 122...simple :highly_amused:)

Based on the success that Gordon Elliott has had with Cause of Causes and Tiger Roll in the last 2 seasons (and Silver Birch in 2007), I have no doubt we'll be seeing more and more horses take in the Cross Country race at the festival as the final prep run. It used to be the case of horses having a hurdle race as their final prep - no doubt this will become the new trend ;) If I was to try and delve into why the race could be such a good prep...

For me the Cross Country is a relatively easy race - certainly on how much it takes out on the horse. The race at the festival is now on level weights but we have plenty of evidence from the handicap versions that weight means very little. They go round at a sedate pace for the majority of the race and it turns into a bit of sprint up the hill. Over a distance of 3m6f, it would take much less out of a horse that is running over the same trip in conventional chases. The National fences have changed plenty over the years and are less of a test of jumping as they used to be and as we saw with Tiger Roll having to quickly sidestep the fallen I Just Know at Bechers - nimbleness and quick feet is massive - an aspect that is needed in the Cross Country race as well and isn't always tested in conventional chases so is a very valuable aspect to have on your side when you're in a 40 runner race where anything can happen.

That said I do think it might become something that is overplayed slightly now. I'd expect more horses to compete in the race with Aintree in mind now so I don't expect it to have such a strike rate and although Balthazaar King is further evidence for it, I think an awful lot of this is down to Elliott's genius rather than just the race itself. Not only does it show just how good a trainer he is, but I think it's notable that his 2 runners had run and won in the 4 miler at Cheltenham proving they had stamina in abundance and it not to be a worry. Even Silver Birch when he was trained with Nicholls ran in the 4 mile race at Cheltenham 3 years before (4th) and had won a Welsh National so stamina was assured.

So basically I think it can be an excellent and ideal prep run for the National and has plenty in it's favour, but i wouldn't want to back it blind...as with any trend/stat though really.

Also worth highlighting what Matt Tombs stated on Twitter before the race yesterday:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you're struggling interpreting National runners' form, thinking the winner will have been hidden - the form of recent winners in their last run in a marathon (3m3f+) chase was 1215228121F23.</p>— matt tombs (@thespieler) <a href="https://twitter.com/thespieler/status/984846720931647490?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 13, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tiger Roll can be added to this list with a 1st place so it's really becoming a race where the winner won't be plotted under the radar and will have shown their hand in a big staying chase beforehand and be coming into the race in great form, certainly at some stage of that season.
 
Some good points jono.

Agree entirely that the race may become used as "more" of a prep...

I won't start having ante-post bets for the Grand National any earlier or anything like that. It isn't a race I'd care if I didn't have an ante-post bet it... certianly not before Cheltenham anyway despite it working this year.

There is usually one I'd fancy from a long way out, but if there isn't I wouldn't go looking for it.

Don Poli next year, so need to go looking! :devilish:
 
Good effort that jono.

I've always been a believer that the cross country, despite it's distance, is not as testing as regulation chases as the configuration of the course doesn't allow them to go normal racing speed until they come out into the racecourse proper 3f from home so the race wouldn't bottom them out.
Opposing National horses who had a hard race at Cheltenham might be a sound strategy but to win a National you have to be fit and a XC run looks to be the ideal prep.

As for where Tiger Roll goes next year I'd be shocked if they change the schedule.
We had the same discussion on Cause of Causes last year, winner of the 4 miler and XC I thought he should aim his sights a little higher at Cheltenham, but with the National netting the winner £500k why tackle a harder race and risk your National chance ?

As for his mark, the 'capper will push him up 8 or 9lb I reckon but of course he does have licence to apply flexibility in Nationals so could find himself with a mark of around 156 for a repeat next year....
 
That was some race, as a TR backer it was such a rollercoaster - already watched the replay a good few times. I'm not normally somebody that celebrates early, but I celebrated 2 or 3 times after the last (as could not see Pleasant Company getting back at him and was good distance to 3rd) only to freeze as the last 50 yards materialised. My initial feeling was he'd been beat and was absolutely gutted, a feeling than was only alleviated when the first photo came through, which made it reasonably clear TR had won, cue wild celebrations all over again. Ended up being my biggest ever winner and coupled with winnings from the XC TR now has to be my favourite horse. Delighted also that Saint Are was ok and all horses made it safely home for the 6th successive year I believe.

Well done to FM and Ista who made a good case on here some time ago! Also had a small E/W on Blessed the Wings based on Kev's analysis. This place really is second to none for analysis and finding value AP bets (good post race write up Jono) so thanks again. Plan on taking a break now for a few months and hope to be back later in the summer to do it all again. Can't believe it will go as well again next season, but you never know :very_drunk:
 
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