• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2017 Ultima Handicap

Istabraq said:
Yes Leman that's right, and if topweights pull out the weights go up foe every horse accordingly.

Go to Sky Sports website (I'm sure other sites do the job) then to racing profiles, enter the horses name and look at their history, you'll see the rating against the horse each time he ran.
Click to expand...

Thanks Ista and FM :encouragement:
Every day's a school day
 
The horse the has caught my eye in this now in Henri Parry Morgan at 16/1.

He is down to a mark of 142 over fences having ran poorly this winter. Looking back at his form though, he ran poorly last winter before coming to life in the spring, with his best effort in finishing 3L behind Native River at Aintree. Subsequent to that, he went off 5/1fav for the Bet365 chase at Sandown off a mark of 149.

Peter Bowen has been out of form for most of the season but has had a couple of winners in the last week so he may be turning the corner.

Of those at the bottom of the weights, he is the one I like most.
 
Like Singlefarmpayment for this. Around the right sort of rating, course form etc.
 
I like Singlefarmpayment too but I'm disappointed he is so short in the betting.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
The horse the has caught my eye in this now in Henri Parry Morgan at 16/1.

He is down to a mark of 142 over fences having ran poorly this winter. Looking back at his form though, he ran poorly last winter before coming to life in the spring, with his best effort in finishing 3L behind Native River at Aintree. Subsequent to that, he went off 5/1fav for the Bet365 chase at Sandown off a mark of 149.

Peter Bowen has been out of form for most of the season but has had a couple of winners in the last week so he may be turning the corner.

Of those at the bottom of the weights, he is the one I like most.
Click to expand...

One of the guys on the Racing Post Postcast put HPM up too FM, could be that the yard coming into form may help, but for me he has always looked a galloper so a flat track would suit more IMO.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
The horse the has caught my eye in this now in Henri Parry Morgan at 16/1.

He is down to a mark of 142 over fences having ran poorly this winter. Looking back at his form though, he ran poorly last winter before coming to life in the spring, with his best effort in finishing 3L behind Native River at Aintree. Subsequent to that, he went off 5/1fav for the Bet365 chase at Sandown off a mark of 149.

Peter Bowen has been out of form for most of the season but has had a couple of winners in the last week so he may be turning the corner.

Of those at the bottom of the weights, he is the one I like most.
Click to expand...

Lots of love for Henri from the Timeform boys last night.
 
Is un temps been overlooked for this? up 7lb on last years rating by my reckoning and gave most of these a real beating last year, think 16/1 looks great value
 
The Ultima Business Solutions Festival Trophy Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill Trophy) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles and half a furlong. It’s the third race run on the opening day of the Festival and there are plenty of important trends that should be taken note of before having a bet in this race.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-3-14

7yo: 3-11-43

8yo: 4-1-50

9yo: 1-10-50

10yo: 2-2-30

11yo+: 0-2-27

10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled 34 of 39 places

Horses aged 6 to 8: 7-15-107

Horses aged 9 or older: 3-14-107

Horses aged 11+ should be avoided seeing as they have filled 2 places from 27 runners in the past 10 renewals.



Breeding

Irish bred: 9-11-126

British bred: 1-9-38

French bred: 0-8-41

Other: 0-1-9

Irish bred horses have won 9 of last 10 from approximately 58.9% of total runners.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-5 or more: 2-6-47

Horses carrying 10-9 to 11-4: 5-17-99

Horses carrying 10-8 or lower: 3-6-68

Only 4 horses have managed to carry 11-0+ to victory since 2000, 3 of those 4 had finished 1st or 2nd in a 3M+ grade 1 hurdle and the other was 6th in a previous Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle.

Top Weight: P0787597PF702 (0-1-13)



Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or higher: 7-20-128

Horses rated 130 to 139: 2-9-76

Horses rated 129 or below: 1-0-10

7 of last 9 winners were officially rated 140 to 149, they also accounted for 22 of 34 places in last 9 years.



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 142+ on last chase start

8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)

9 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 previous wins over fences (exception yet to win from 3 chase runs)

8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase (2 exceptions were novice chasers that had finished 2nd in a grade 1 3M Hurdle)

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

9 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 28K+

10 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2M 5F+ at Cheltenham



Other Races

Previous year's winner (Un Temps Pour Tout): F0 (0-0-2)

Genius by Bet Bright Cheltenham Festival Fund Veterans' Handicap Chase winner (Killala Quay): 17 (1-0-2)

32Red.com Handicap Chase winner (Double Shuffle): 22 (0-2-2)

Unicoin Group Handicap Chase winner (Theatre Guide): P2 (0-1-2)

BetBright Chase winner (Pilgrims Bay): PF (0-0-2)

Record of horses that won or placed in Skybet Chase: 412 (1-2-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 055

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Stayers' Hurdle, finishing 96

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's World Series Hurdle, finishing 24

2 of 10 winners ran in the United House Gold Cup, finishing 7P

2 of last 4 novice winners were placed in a 3M Exeter Novices' Chase in November



Trainers

Jonjo O’Neill (3-0-11) has saddled 3 winners (2009, 2012 & 2014) in past 10 years and also trained runner-up in 2016.

David Pipe (2-3-15) trained the winners in 2008 & 2016 and has also saddled The Package to be placed in 3 of last 7 runnings.

Alan King (1-1-9) trained the winner in 2004 & 2011

Neil Mulholland (1-1-4) trained the winner in 2015 & 3rd in 2016.

Colin Tizzard (1-0-6) trained the winner in 2013.

Nicky Henderson (0-3-11) last trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 5 of his last 13 runners get placed.

Donald McCain (0-2-2) trained Our Mick to be placed in 2012 & 2013.

Henry De Bromhead (0-1-2), Ian Williams (0-1-3) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-7) have all saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 years.

Tony Martin (0-1-4) trained the winner in 2006 and 3rd in 2015, both had won/placed in Thyestes on previous start.

Paul Nicholls (0-1-10), Venetia Williams (0-1-14), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-16) have managed just 2 places from their collective 40 runners since 2007.

There had been no Irish trained (0-5-17) winner for 38 years before Youlneverwalkalone won it in 2003. Dun Doire then managed to repeat the feat in 2006, though there has been no Irish winner in last 10 years. Last 2 Irish winners had finished in first 3 in a handicap chase in Britain earlier that season.



Price

No strong trend on price, as 6 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 10/1 but there has been 3 big shocks in the last 10 years, with a 50/1 winner in 2007, a 33/1 in 2010 & a 28/1 in 2013.

Favourites (1-5-13) have a poor record in the race having won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 7 to 10 (ideally 7 or 8)

- Irish bred

- Carrying 10-13 or less (or previously placed in a grade 1 hurdle over 3M)

- Officially rated 140 to 149

- Posted an RPR of 142+ last time

- Won over 3M+

- First or second season chaser

- Won 1 to 3 times over fences

- Has run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 2)

- Won a class 3 or better handicap chase

- Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+

- Finished in first 6 in 2016 World Series, Stayers, Liverpool Hurdle and/or 2017 Cleeve Hurdle

- Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Tony Martin, Neil Mulholland or David Pipe
 
Goes against my usual strategy of liking unexposed horses in these handicaps but am I completely insane thinking Hadrian's Approach can figure here ?
Down to 140 having won a Whitbread off 146 (rated after 153), ran in this race 4 years ago and although well fancied he ran poorly, not beaten far behind Native River in the Hennesy and although the absence since is a worry he could be back to a winning mark....
 
There just HAS to be something less exposed beating it? Is always prefer a horse that's been targeted and this must be an after thought? Handicapped to go incredibly well on best form but I'd sooner knock native river than back it?
 
Heron Heights fits all trends if he runs here.
 
doctorwu said:
Heron Heights fits all trends if he runs here.
Click to expand...

Course and distance winner so definitely looks over priced at present. I'd think he'll run here rather than the shorter Novice handicap later in the day.
 
He has been given an easy time of it since the ground has went, and given what looks to have been a pipe opener. Def of interest for me too..
 
Am I correct in saying the max runners for this is 23? I'm trying to sift through the runners and would make life easier if I could exclude the lowest rated who are not going to turn up
 
It's usually an even number - probably 24 maximum field
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom