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2017 Ryanair Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter Morning Glory
  • Start date Start date
That is exactly it.... I expected him to be a simialr price to the price he was in the Gold Cup (20-25s).

Betfair went a ridiculous price on Rawnaq too (100/1) on a confirmed target. I am glad that they do... they took my money being bold on Rawnaq and they may well take it again here, but fair play. I would much prefer it that way!
 
mayo said:
Vaniteux added at 33s
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Would need to bounce back to last years form, and even then he fell at Chelt?

Contrastingly to my Gold Cup book, this race doesn't make great reading at all. Be pleased to come out even here. I don't have a particularly strong opinion yet either... (very hard until runners arre confirmed I feel) but Zabana, Empire of Dirt and Sub Lieut are the 3x I probably like the most...and the Irish have a poor record... so I am probably coming at this the wrong way!

Only got a small bet at 25s on Unixandre but I am going off him somewhat. While watching the AP film I thought he was a good thing for the places yet I've gone luke-warm on his chances.

I have never ever been a fan of Josses Hill, which is the exact kind of horse that could place again at the festival.

Anyone feel really strongly about this race? Not a lot of peoples fave race. I know I'll have decided by the day, but just the whole race looks a bit flakey at the moment!
 
I have backed Sub Lieutenant in here at 14/1. Obviously highly rated by the team, was well fancied at Thurles last time (went off 11/10 fav in a race with last years JLT winner and this years Irish Gold Cup winner in the field) and the only horses to beat him home this season are well enough fancied in the Gold Cup. Rated 162 which is up there with the best of them in this race, could also have a bit of improvement in him yet. Also, the likely favourite in here needs it soft to show his best, which we might not get.
 
...and you'd expect good ground to be a benefit for SL too...
 
Don't think it's too ground dependant, decent runs in 2 bumpers with good in the description, not disgraced in an aintree Grade 1 behind Nichols Canyon on good ground, a good run in one of the strongest novice hurdles I've seen in recent seasons at Punchestown a couple of years back and has won on good ground this season :encouragement:
 
He’s in mighty form and the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham has been the plan for him all along. He’s already had a great season and hopefully he’ll give a good account of himself. I really think he’s a better horse on better ground, so for his sake I hope it turns up that way.
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That HdB on SL.

I think the ground is going to cause a HUGE swing in the market on the day..... if it is soft, UDS will be odds on! If it is good.... then he might not even be fav!

Likely to be somewhere in between, but you kinda feel your fate is a bit in thre lap of the God's with an ante-post bet in this race? (not that, that has stopped me!)!
 
I have an empty book for this race apart from UDS in a trixie. I fancied Valseur Lido if he turned up here but it was looking like the GC before he was ruled out. I like the Alary shout, might chuck a pt e/w on that at the 66s.
 
Black Hercules doesn't go to the festival by the sounds of it, if anyone had him down for this race.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Black Hercules doesn't go to the festival by the sounds of it, if anyone had him down for this race.
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One of my first bets this season was Black Hercules Amy race at 7/1! Been under performing all season and was hoping a return to the festival would spark him back to life. Writing was on the wall though when Patrick Mullins said he isn't a spring horse particularly. Yet another winner from last year a no show!
 
finch said:
I have backed Sub Lieutenant in here at 14/1. Obviously highly rated by the team, was well fancied at Thurles last time (went off 11/10 fav in a race with last years JLT winner and this years Irish Gold Cup winner in the field) and the only horses to beat him home this season are well enough fancied in the Gold Cup. Rated 162 which is up there with the best of them in this race, could also have a bit of improvement in him yet. Also, the likely favourite in here needs it soft to show his best, which we might not get.
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I'd forgotten about SL. Thanks for reminding me finch.
 
I've had a few quid ew on Alary @66-1 on Betfair sportsbook.

I'm just going on the horses reputation from France, the expectation that was from Tizzard and the fact that he was once a Gold Cup horse at 20-1.
 
Zipiter said:
I've had a few quid ew on Alary @66-1 on Betfair sportsbook.

I'm just going on the horses reputation from France, the expectation that was from Tizzard and the fact that he was once a Gold Cup horse at 20-1.
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Ive had a pt e/w at 66 too
 
I think it is a probably a reflection of getting it badly wrong with this horse but Elliott seems to be continually underplaying Empire Of Dirt. In the last few days he has talked about Death Duty as if he is 1/2 and Empire Of Dirt 10/1. Empire Of Dirt is by far his most solid chance of a winner. He ticks all the boxes; best horse in the race, course and distance winner and although he is better on a sounder surface any rain will not be an issue. Death Duty is unproven at the track and potentially unproven on the ground.
 
kinloch brae said:
I think it is a probably a reflection of getting it badly wrong with this horse but Elliott seems to be continually underplaying Empire Of Dirt. In the last few days he has talked about Death Duty as if he is 1/2 and Empire Of Dirt 10/1. Empire Of Dirt is by far his most solid chance of a winner. He ticks all the boxes; best horse in the race, course and distance winner and although he is better on a sounder surface any rain will not be an issue. Death Duty is unproven at the track and potentially unproven on the ground.
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Empire Of Dirt the best horse in the race!? Is this the horse running in the race that has been won 8 out of the last 9 years by a Grade 1 winner, who has never won a Grade 1!?
 
kinloch brae said:
I think it is a probably a reflection of getting it badly wrong with this horse but Elliott seems to be continually underplaying Empire Of Dirt. In the last few days he has talked about Death Duty as if he is 1/2 and Empire Of Dirt 10/1. Empire Of Dirt is by far his most solid chance of a winner. He ticks all the boxes; best horse in the race, course and distance winner and although he is better on a sounder surface any rain will not be an issue. Death Duty is unproven at the track and potentially unproven on the ground.
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You said exactly the same about if he were to take on Djakadam (my bet for the race) in the Gold Cup. I'm all for sentimental reasoning behind backing a horse, lord knows I have done this many a time, even if it is likely to lead me to the poor house, but you really seem to like this horse, I'm just interested to know what piece of form makes him such a strong bet for you?

He's now 10 years of age so likelihood is all improvement has now gone, yet in that time has at best managed a Grade 3 win, and that is at best. You could argue his best form has been this season and that run in the Irish Gold Cup would lead him to have every chance in whichever race he runs in, but for me, that form is questionable.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
You said exactly the same about if he were to take on Djakadam (my bet for the race) in the Gold Cup. I'm all for sentimental reasoning behind backing a horse, lord knows I have done this many a time, even if it is likely to lead me to the poor house, but you really seem to like this horse, I'm just interested to know what piece of form makes him such a strong bet for you?

He's now 10 years of age so likelihood is all improvement has now gone, yet in that time has at best managed a Grade 3 win, and that is at best. You could argue his best form has been this season and that run in the Irish Gold Cup would lead him to have every chance in whichever race he runs in, but for me, that form is questionable.
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If you are serious about betting you can't do sentimental. He was 40/1 first quote, so at that stage there were not many believers, including the trainer. He was a strong bet for me straight after passing the line in the Plate. That win was gained virtually on the bridle after being significantly hampered.

He is now not far off being favourite for the Ryanair so is it really folly to suggest he is the best horse in the race? He bolted up in Troytown and then he was produced on the bridle to win the Irish Gold Cup but unfortunately he was impeded at last. Had that not e happened he would almost certainly gone extremely close to making a successful transition from handicaps to Grade 1 in one step. He might be 10 but I am not sure how anyone could suggest he is not improving. That Irish Gold Cup performance was mid 160's with the potential for another 7lbs to come. Yes, that Irish Gold Cup form might be questionable for the likes of Sizing John and More Of That but Empire Of Dirt finished second despite the way the race was run. I really believe that had they gone a proper gallop he would have won on the bridle.

Although a late starter he has always been a decent horse but he used to burn himself out from the front. The hold-up tactics and improved jumping have taken him to a new level.
 
kinloch brae said:
If you are serious about betting you can't do sentimental. He was 40/1 first quote, so at that stage there were not many believers, including the trainer. He was a strong bet for me straight after passing the line in the Plate. That win was gained virtually on the bridle after being significantly hampered.

He is now not far off being favourite for the Ryanair so is it really folly to suggest he is the best horse in the race? He bolted up in Troytown and then he was produced on the bridle to win the Irish Gold Cup but unfortunately he was impeded at last. Had that not e happened he would almost certainly gone extremely close to making a successful transition from handicaps to Grade 1 in one step. He might be 10 but I am not sure how anyone could suggest he is not improving. That Irish Gold Cup performance was mid 160's with the potential for another 7lbs to come. Yes, that Irish Gold Cup form might be questionable for the likes of Sizing John and More Of That but Empire Of Dirt finished second despite the way the race was run. I really believe that had they gone a proper gallop he would have won on the bridle.

Although a late starter he has always been a decent horse but he used to burn himself out from the front. The hold-up tactics and improved jumping have taken him to a new level.
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Haha all my sentimental betting was when I was in my gambling infancy, learnt very quickly that is not the way to go.

Fair play, I'm not saying he can't win, but on his profile I'd suggest he won't, and again I didn't say improvement hadn't gone, purely that I personally do not know of many horses that start improving aged 10, although Colin Tizzard seems to think Cue Card is better than even suggesting there may have been some improvement in there, so taken on the trainers word I guess it's possible.
 
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