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2017 Mares Novice Hurdle

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Had a quick look and couldn't see a thread for this race. Just taking Bet365 prices as copied and pasted, these are the market leaders.

Airlie Beach 7/2
La Bague Au Roi 5
Lets Dance 6
Augusta Kate 5
Camelia de Cotte 6
Redhotfillypeppers 9
Asthuria 10

6/7 are trained by Willie Mullins so trying to find the rubys ride (likely winner).

Asthuria - seems a stayer, could end up here, could go Mares hurdle.

Redhotfillypeppers - Sticking to bumpers, one for next year over hurdles, with the owner insisting on riding might be one to avoid anyway!

Camelia De Cotte - Impressive on debut, Paddy recently cut her shorter than Lets Dance for same owner so possibly the one for Ricci.

Augusta Kate - Very impressive before falling vs Death Duty, Looks a stayer but also not short on speed, Could take on the geldings tho, neptune/bartlett? Celebrity owners and Wylie bred her so could want her in the easiest race to win (This one)

Lets Dance - Impressive LTO, Ricci mentioned in his recent betbright blog he wouldn't mind taking on the geldings, suggesting Camelia De Cotte his preferred runner?

La Bague Au Roi - Looks good over hurdles, not short on speed, certain to run in this race.

Airlie Beach - Very impressive when beating the geldings, Supreme racing tweeted they will taking in the Deliotte next, possible Supreme/Neptune horse? or will they stick to this race?

What do we think? which horse turns up in this race?
 
I think Airlie beach is probably the horse that will turn up. On Skybet specials you can get Augusta Kate 3/1 for this NRNB and I think that's a solid bet. Anyone else agree?
 
This is a nightmare race for antepost purposes imo, and probably the toughest of the week for me. Clearly Mullins has an embarrassment of riches and I think its best keeping your powder dry until nearer the time and he decides who he is sending. Of course that may already be known, only wish I knew too!

I was very impressed with La Bague Au Roi, but they've said she will be put away until the Festival so doesnt seem any point backing her until the day. Definitely a race Im avoiding in the AP book.

To answer the original question though, if I were forced to have a bet, I think I would risk Camelia de Cotte. No concrete evidence, just a hunch I suppose.
 
Willie said Lets Dance would get an entry in the Mares as well as Novice race as he thinks she needs a trip. Has Ruby anything else for Neptune ?
 
I suppose Ruby still has Invitation Only, Saturnas and Augusta Kate all as possible Neptune horses. I've certainly not given up on Invitation Only just yet.
 
Wylie has Crack Mome (Supreme), Invitation Only (Neptune), Battleford (Bartlett). I know shes not in Wylies colours but would he really want Kate taking in a race he already has a runner in? On the final furlong podcast he said Mares novice is the target for Kate, but obviously since then she has impressed.

I agree Camelia De Cotte looks the likely runner for Ricci
 
Let's dance is better over further from comments and what we saw
.... but if she went in the Mares race, does than mean Annie, VVM and Limini don't? Makes her participation for that unlikely for me....

Some of this chat is in the mares thread and I've backed camila de cotte at 33s but I'm not sure she will turn up, as let's dance looked better and if any of the non novices turn up, she might not even be Ricci's number one.

I think la bague au Roo is really solid and I think I'll back her each way nearer the time when the market is clearer ... can't see her shortening much? And surely Mullins/Ruby will be even whichever bullet they fire?
 
Let's Dance put up for the Albert Bartlett by Jonny Ward on this week FF Podcast
 
The owners of Augusta Kate don't need the money & this is very much a fun project for them.
As such I think Wylie will aim the horse at the easiest target so they can enjoy a festival winner together.
Was impressed with her until she fell & convinced she was coming to give DD a fright.
Think she will be aimed here & will win.
 
In the past Willie has said throughout the season particularly with his novices it's not always about the race or the trip but just when a horse is ready to run / more forward than others i.e don't read too much into it! Despite this I do think there was more to Augusta Kate running against Death Duty at the weekend than just getting a run out.

He has such a plethora of mares for this race. Add in the fact his geldings in the Supreme/Neptune/AB are still slightly up in the air and arguably don't look to be top drawer (so far) I think a few of the mares will go for the S/N/AB. Airlie Beach, Augusta Kate and Let's Dance would be the obvious choices for this if needed out of the above and right now i'd expect 2 of those 3 to not line up for this race.
 
Brital said:
The owners of Augusta Kate don't need the money & this is very much a fun project for them.
As such I think Wylie will aim the horse at the easiest target so they can enjoy a festival winner together.
Was impressed with her until she fell & convinced she was coming to give DD a fright.
Think she will be aimed here & will win.
Click to expand...

I don't think any of wh owners need the money:), but you are right about the owners, they definitely wouldn't want the public labeling them as working with the bookies like "other" owners and will enter the her into her best chance of a festival win.
 
ryanh97 said:
I think Airlie beach is probably the horse that will turn up. On Skybet specials you can get Augusta Kate 3/1 for this NRNB and I think that's a solid bet. Anyone else agree?
Click to expand...

I probably do regarding AK.... if she turns up she'll be the one Ruby rides? 5s available, 3s with the 'peace of mind' .... not one to rush in to but I will mull it over
 
Kevloaf said:
I probably do regarding AK.... if she turns up she'll be the one Ruby rides? 5s available, 3s with the 'peace of mind' .... not one to rush in to but I will mull it over
Click to expand...

I certainly agree its not one to rush in on. As stated earlier in the thread you'd imagine whoever Ruby is on will end up going off probably even money. One to pop a few points on if I have a winner in the next week or so
 
Airlie Beach ...Definitely Maybe


SUPREME RACING syndicate manager Steve Massey is hoping his racing fairytale continues at the Cheltenham Festival with unbeaten mare Airlie Beach, who is most likely to run in the mares' novice hurdle over 2m1f.

An impressive winner of the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle in December, Airlie Beach could go for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle or the Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, but Massey will leave running plans to trainer Willie Mullins.

"If Willie was to say we'll run in the Supreme Novices' we'd say great.

"However, it's not every day you have a favourite for a race, which she is for the mares' novice after her Grade 1 win," Massey said.

"There's the Supreme option for her, but I'd say she's more likely to run in the mares' novice. Both races are over two miles and Willie will have the final say.

"It's possible she may run next in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown or she could go straight to the festival."
 
Lets Dance - Willie quotes

The advantage she has is that she’s a second season novice in against real novices,” said Mullins.

“She ran last year but didn’t win and we just ran her in big races because she started off so late in the season.

“We took a chance that if she won one, all and good, but if she didn’t she’d have all the experience for this year.

“I think that’s paying off for her, apart from the fact that she’s a good filly anyway. The conditions of the race suited her here. She did it well.

“We have to try and pick the right race for her at Cheltenham now. The mares novice would look the obvious one but that’s only two-and-a-quarter miles.

“She might be better off running in maybe the Neptune or the Mares Hurdle, something a bit longer. We’ll see what turns up in the mares novice.

“Two-and-a-quarter around Cheltenham would be a good gallop though and it’s more than likely the one. We’ll see we have a few nice mares for that race.

“We won’t have to make up our mind for a while and we’ll see how she comes out of that.”
Click to expand...
 
That does surprise me... I thought Albert Bartlett while watching and then Ricci said it... *woops*
 
Was trying to get the 20/1 then RR opened his mouth. She's too short for me to bet at 14/1 now, with the target far from confirmed
 
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