Lydia gives this race a good going over in her latest column
OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle
This should be the most competitive edition of this race yet, if all or most of the key players run to form. There has usually been one brilliant mare lining up almost since its institution – such as six-time winner Quevega and Annie Power, who infamously fell when leading at the last two years ago – but this time there are at least three, if not four, very smart mares on show.
Yet sub-plots still risk overshadowing the main act. Limini, earmarked as Willie Mullins' leading contender for this race all season, was late returning to the track and then ran so well when she did that the Champion Hurdle was mooted for a nine-day interregnum – albeit owner Rich Ricci was publicly cool on the idea three days after Mullins set the hare running.
Titleholder Vroum Vroum Mag was the super-sub who would supposedly slot in wherever she could win at the Festival but now tackles the least ambitious of her six original engagements (over hurdles and fences) as the yard’s second string given Ruby Walsh rides Limini.
Paul Townend’s mount was given antibiotics for a cold she was “brewing” after gamely underperforming in victory at Doncaster in January and at the time of writing still holds three entries including the Stayers’ Hurdle. Her presence here suggests Mullins was not entirely confident he could win this prize with Limini alone and that neither mare was deemed to have a realistic Champion Hurdle shout.
A further sub-plot emerged at declaration time when a first-time tongue-tie was added to Apple’s Jade. That could be a negative: there might have been more to her Punchestown defeat by Limini than receiving the less optimal ride and returning from a break, which her form patterns suggest will prompt in an improved effort next time out. Or you could read the first-time aid as an extra edge to help on the big day.
There was only a short-head between them when she beat Vroum Vroum Mag at Fairyhouse in December, when the latter was not as well positioned. All of this suggests all three mares are much of a muchness, with Limini arguably holding marginally the upper hand (if you believe one form-line) and definitely the best last-time performance going into this race.
But best odds of 13/8 tell you that and if you can dismiss the doubts about Apple’s Jade then 4/1 with a firm offering ¼ odds a place is a safe(-ish) each-way play with a material chance of victory.
Jer’s Girl is the fourth potential player but you’re relying on her to improve for a sounder surface and a step back up in trip, like she did when winning two Grade Ones at Fairyhouse and Punchestown last spring. This term’s best effort – her second in the Morgiana – relies on a positive reading of winner Nichols Canyon and the rest of his season doesn’t underpin that view. Even if you think it’s reliable, Jer’s Girl still needs to improve on it.
The market says progressive Lifeboat Mona is the best of the home guard, provided she handles faster ground. But her Sandown form, in which she beat the source of Vroum Vroum Mag’s Doncaster fright, Midnight Jazz, at level weights and Briery Queen, who was conceding 4lb and therefore the best horse at the weights, suggests the last-named mare is way overpriced at 50/1. This still-improving mare definitely handles quicker ground.
You can fashion a case for The Organist running well, if you throw out this term’s chase form on the basis she didn’t take to fences and concentrate on her progressive hurdles profile that would probably have culminated in victory on the New Course here last April had she not fallen at the last.
Rock On The Moor was 66/1 when she finished second in this race last year. She too hasn’t taken to fences and her latest effort says both Limini and Apple’s Jade soundly hold her but this track and her likely tactics might mean she nicks a place again if the principals get more involved in a battle.
We may not yet have seen the best from novice Colin’s Sister and although her best form is hitherto on more testing ground, that might be a coincidence. Hidden Identity saves her best for this race but given she’s now 11 years of age and faces a deeper edition, that’s an academic observation.
Selections:
Back Apple’s Jade each-way at 4/1 or better with ¼ odds place terms (bpg)
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/lydia-hislop:-the-road's-end/44445
I am really torn on the race - the big three could easily provide the tricast and then it could be a complete boilover. Mares are always tricky.
