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2017 Grand National

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
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robith said:
Obviously it's possible to get lost in the trends but a Q

Placing in the national last year seems to be the kiss of death, but I can't find anything on finishers/unplaced runners.

Basically trying to figure out if you want a horse that is totally new or not
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I haven't gone way back, but here's what I have found:

2010 - Don't Push It (Won), Black Apalachi (2nd), State Of Play (3rd), Big Fella Thanks (4th), Hello Bud (5th).

2011 - Ballabriggs, Oscar Time, Don't Push It (3rd), State Of Play (4th), Niche Market. Big Fella Thanks finished 7th and Hello Bud was pulled up, the other did not run.

2012 - Neptune Collonges, Sunnyhillboy, Seabass, Cappa Bleu, In Compliance. Ballabriggs finished 6th, Hello Bud 7th, the others did not run.

2013 - Aurora's Encore, Cappa Bleu (2nd), Teaforthree, Oscar Time (4th), Rare Bob. Seabass finished 13th, Big Fella Thanks & Sunnyhillboy U/R & Ballabriggs P/U, the others did not run.

2014 - Pineau De Re, Balthazar King, Double Seven, Alvarado, Rocky Creek. Teaforthree U/R, the others did not run.

2015 - Many Clouds, Saint Are, Monbeg Dude, Alvarado (4th), Shutthefrontdoor. Pineau De Re 12th, Oscar Time 15th & Balthazar King fell, the others did not run.

2016 - Rule The World, The Last Samuri, Vics Canvas, Gilgamboa, Goonyella. Shutthefrontdoor 9th, Many Clouds 16th & Saint Are P/U, the others did not run.

Hope this gives a little insight.
 
Blimey thank you CoD!
 
Amazingly, none of Ballabriggs, Neptune Collonges, Auroras Encore or Rule The World had any Aintree Chase experience at all before winning their respective races. Pineau De Re had only fallen at the course over fences but had not completed a race there either before winning it.

Only Don't Push It had won at the course (chasing), prior to winning the race.

Looking solely at the past 7 years it doesn't bode well for horses returning to the race as win prospects, but there is always a time for a change :p
 
My updated bets.

Singles:-
Ucello Conti - 33/1
Foxrock - 50/1
Highland Lodge - 50/1
Perfect Candidate 50/1
Bishops Road - 66/1

Doubles with USD@ 7/2
Bless The Wings 100/1
Ballynagour 80/1
Maggio 50/1
Vicente 25/1
Just A Par 40/1
Cause Of Causes 33/1
Rogue Angel 40/1
Perfect Candidate 40/1

Others:-
8/1 win & Ucello Conti 20/1
10/3 win & Thunder And Roses 25/1
5/2 win & Raz De Maree 40/1 x2
5/2 win & The Young Master 20/1 x2
5/2 win & Measureofmydreams 50/1
5/2 win & Highland Lodge 33/1 x2
5/1 win & Wonderful Charm 66/1
 
That's some list LR - who is your best result?
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Amazingly, none of Ballabriggs, Neptune Collonges, Auroras Encore or Rule The World had any Aintree Chase experience at all before winning their respective races. Pineau De Re had only fallen at the course over fences but had not completed a race there either before winning it.

Only Don't Push It had won at the course (chasing), prior to winning the race.

Looking solely at the past 7 years it doesn't bode well for horses returning to the race as win prospects, but there is always a time for a change :p
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Yeah basically I spent a lot of my day thinking myself into Pendra being the one, but the returning runner thing is warping my thinking.
 
Morning all.

The one I really like is Raz de Maree and I'm willing to overlook the fact he is a 12yo and only finished 8th on his sole previous attempt. That run was quite bizarre. I backed him that day and at about half way he was plum last in about 30th and was ridden out the back almost the whole way from there. He was still in almost last and about 20th coming off the final bend. He then absolutely flew from the elbow to finish 8th. Im not suggesting he would have won, but think he could definitely have been in the places if ridden more prominently. His jumping wasnt that fluent, but he seemed to have a knack of getting to the other side safely. He's only unseaten once (and never fallen) in 23 Chase starts and that was because he was hampered, so thats another plus.

I thought he was very impressive on decent ground to win the Cork Grand National this season, and to hold on from Forever Gold giving him over a stone was excellent. Especially considering that horse went on to win the Porterstown impressively next time.

From the same sire as Tenor Nivernais, I've a slight niggle that he will prefer it softer, and at the minute you'd fancy the ground will be pretty decent, but that's why I was so impressed with his run at Cork.

Nice little blow out earlier this month and I could see him starting nearer 20/1 on the day. Proven stamina is a massive plus for me and I will be happy enough with Ger Fox in the saddle.

EDIT: Forgot to add, he was staying on like a train behind Native River last time and in another couple of hundred yards, might well have caught him. That looks really top class form to me as the pair of them were miles clear of third. The further he goes the better he seems to be.
 
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To be perfectly honest I see 12yo's or older in the Grand National and immediately a line goes through them, but that's personal preference, however my first legal bet in this race was a winning 12yo, but that was purely a pin job back then!

I've learnt plenty since then and prefer to play the odds, since the turn of the millenium 12yo's or older have a win rate of 5.88%, this alone is enough to put me off, that said, there is still room for value in the place market, most notably in recent years is Vics Canvas finishing 3rd @ 100/1 last year aged 13, the big plus for him however was being by Old Vic, who has a fairly good record in this race for horses he has sired, in comparison to other stallions.
 
Yeah I would agree its a worry, and certainly a mark in the negative column! But I dont think its enough of a reason for me to be put off by him.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
That's some list LR - who is your best result?
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Highland Lodge, Bishops Road, Wonderful Charm or Perfect Candidate will return around 5-6k. The rest are only around 3k. Though I am not done with topping up, gonna keep going until the race.

I need to find a way to top up Ucello Conti as he's always been my fancy from day 1, along with HL.

Updated list..

Singles:-
Ucello Conti - 33/1
Foxrock - 50/1
Highland Lodge - 50/1
Perfect Candidate 50/1
Bishops Road - 66/1

Doubles with USD@ 7/2
Bless The Wings 100/1
Ballynagour 80/1
Maggio 50/1
Vicente 25/1
Just A Par 40/1
Cause Of Causes 33/1
Rogue Angel 40/1
Perfect Candidate 40/1

Others:-
8/1 win & Ucello Conti 20/1
10/3 win & Thunder And Roses 25/1
5/2 win & Raz De Maree 40/1 x2
5/2 win & The Young Master 20/1 x2
5/2 win & Measureofmydreams 50/1
5/2 win & Highland Lodge 33/1 x2
5/1 win & Wonderful Charm 66/1
3/1 win with Definitely Red 14/1
3/1 win with Doctor Harper 66/1
5/2 win with Pleasant Company 18/1
9/4 win with Bishops Road 66/1
 
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I won't be having a bet until I'm reasonably confident about the going but my current thinking is a main bet on Blaklion with savers on Vieux Lion Rouge (don't see how you can back one and not the other), The Young Master and Vicente. As an outsider, Wounded Warrior has been campaigned like a good horse. His last win was over 2 years ago but it was a win over Rule The World.
 
Cause of Causes 40/1 and 20/1
Highland Lodge 40/1
Rogue Angel 40/1
Maggio 74/1
Stella Notion 129/1
Perfect Candidate 100/1+ and 50/1
Any JP trained winner 8/1
Bishops Road 84/1

Going to add The Young Master 20/1 NRNB
 
Some nices prices bagged there FM

Rogue Angel my pick - anything Gigginstown run will have a shout.
 
Morning Glory said:
Some nices prices bagged there FM

Rogue Angel my pick - anything Gigginstown run will have a shout.
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Rogue Angel has had a very similar prep to last year's winner. If they can get him back to the form of his Irish National win, he'd have to have a great chance.
 
Would Rogue Angels run in Beecher not be a negative ?

Pleasant Company got a peach from Ruby in the Bobbyjo but not sure whether the weight swing from Thyestes is enough to see him past Ucello Conti. Pendra could be a bit of value if he didn't leave it behind at Cheltenham.
 
has no one any interest in Carlingford Lough????????
 
doctorwu said:
has no one any interest in Carlingford Lough????????
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Is he a definite runner ?
Entered in the Irish National where he has 3lb less to carry and I'm not convinced he's a great traveler, been to these shores three times and probably underperformed each time....
 
mayo said:
Would Rogue Angels run in Beecher not be a negative ?

Pleasant Company got a peach from Ruby in the Bobbyjo but not sure whether the weight swing from Thyestes is enough to see him past Ucello Conti. Pendra could be a bit of value if he didn't leave it behind at Cheltenham.
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Not as much of a negative as it would be for The Young Master. Just rewatched the beacher and TYM appeared to hate the fences. Rogue Angel jumped ok but tired after 4 out. The horse to take out of the beacher is Highland Lodge, he jumped the fences brilliantly and then idled at the elbow before running on again to finish a close 2nd - he should be 16/1 to win the national, not 33/1.
 
Must admit I'm falling for the Highland Lodge love, had a small play at 33s...
 
Have you watched the Beecher again Ista? All of those horses that finish around him are shorter in the betting but i wouldn't back any of them to finish in front of him in the national.

Highland Lodge has been sold today too.
 
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