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2017 County Hurdle

Winter Escape best chance of of JPs ?
 
Ive just grabbed 12-1 Tombstone after Gordon Elliotts comments on that preview night tonight.
 
I was just taking some of Laddies 16's when it suspended so got 14's with Coral
 
Missed the fancy prices but had some 12/1 NRNB, connections are still liking a CH entry so whilst Elliott's comments re this race are encouraging if the billpayers fancies stumping up the cash and running in the championship race that's where he'll end up...
 
County - entry number 56 got a run last year. This year entry no 56 is rated 135 (3lb lower than last year)
 
The plunge continued, Tombestone now 10/1 best and only 8/1 with NRNB insurance....
 
Its MrMcGoldricks fault but Denamesescapesme might have to be given another chance.
 
Winter Escape will attempt to his career back on track in the Randox Health County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Trainer Alan King plans to run the lightly-raced six-year-old in the Grade Three contest, for which he was allotted 10st 8lb following the release of the weights on Wednesday.

Winter Escape was unbeaten last season, culminating in a Grade Two success at Kempton, but the JP McManus-owned gelding has not been seen since he finished down the field in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November.

King said: "He's been under the weather since the Greatwood but he's back in very good form now.

"He will almost certainly go for the County Hurdle.

"He probably wants decent ground. I wouldn't run him if it was very testing.

"He's back in good order and I still think he is a very good horse.

"It is not an ideal preparation, having not run since November, but we had no option.

"We had high hopes at the start of the year, but he was pretty sick after the Greatwood and it has took a long time to get him back.

"The weights will go up a fair bit, I imagine, but he looks like he will get in."
 
With the ground drying, anyone else surprised to see Hargam not shortening appreciably for this race.
Still 28/1 with Sky NRNB.
Only raced on good ground twice and won both. It's other wins are on good to soft.
If the ground ends up good, it must go close?
 
Brital said:
With the ground drying, anyone else surprised to see Hargam not shortening appreciably for this race.
Still 28/1 with Sky NRNB.
Only raced on good ground twice and won both. It's other wins are on good to soft.
If the ground ends up good, it must go close?
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I fancy him anyway and have a pt e/e at 33s. Youve made my mind up more - lets go in again :D
 
Lol - I'm already on at 33/1 as well.
Was beginning to think I was missing something.
Also fancied De Name Escapes Me as I think that's been ridden 'tenderly' in past races, but the ground looks to have gone against him now.
 
I like the look of DNEM Brital, he's in the fj hurdlers to follow section, I mentioned at the time of his last run that Coleman couldn't have done more to keep him out of the race, had plot written all over it
 
I was on him that day MMG and totally agree. But his 3 wins have come on soft, soft to yielding and soft to heavy.
 
Morning Glory said:
Winter Escape will attempt to his career back on track in the Randox Health County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival....
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He's one i'm starting to like the look of having gone through the race last night. Got it down to

Winter Escape
Wait For Me
Hargam

If North Hill Harvey went out to double figures i'd certainly be having a bet on him and he has massive claims looking back on his Supreme and Aintree novice form, a previous course winner and that second in the Greatwood. May still back him on the day but at the prices tempted to look elsewhere...

Hargam - 140 - 25/1

Hargam has been talked up a bit in here. Sounds like he may be Coral Cup bound instead and although I thought he was an out and 2 miler Kev made a good point that the step up could see him in better light and could be what is needed. The Triumph also tends to favour staying types. Of interest if he turns up though.

Wait For Me - 135 - 20/1 (25's in a place)

Am I mad to suggest this one? Hobbs hasn't sounded overly bullish this year but has said this race will be the aim. Has finished a lacklustre 6th, 5th and 10th this year so doesn't come into the race in the best of form. But...

Last year he was 7/1 joint fav in this race and finished 4th off 139. Watching the race back I don't think there were any excuses to suggest on another day he would have won however his form this year has dropped him down to 135. This was Richard Johnson's view on him in the race last year:

The better ground will definitely be a big bonus for Wait For Me. A fast-run race on better ground is just what he wants and I think he’s well-handicapped - probably the best handicapped in the yard.
He just needs to get it right on the track. If he gets it right with his jumping, he’ll have a massive chance.
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I still think he's got a big handicap in him and if he was well handicapped a year ago off 139 - you'd have to at least take a look this year on a lower mark if he gets the luck in running.

Very likely he'll get the good ground again this year which is what he wants, unlike the ground this winter. Placed twice at the festival - 3rd in the bumper and 4th in this last year. Philip Hobbs has yet to win the County but has done well with placed horses 6 of his 16 runners since 2007 placed (WFM and Sternrubin last year). May well go to a more unexposed horse but he's still only a second season hurdler so there still could be improvement there despite plenty of disappointments. Despite lacklustre runs this season he's been backed at 9/2 joint fav, 7/2 fav and 8/1 (5th fav in the betfair hurdle) so he's clearly had market support expecting him to deliver.

Winter Escape - 140 - 14/1

Another who has had a bit of a disappointing season this year, albeit only the 1 run. Hasn't been seen since the Greatwood hurdle. Was backed that day as if defeat was out of the question at 3/1 fav. Ran too bad to be true in 11th, 42 lengths back to the current fav for this North Hill Harvey.

The soft ground would not have been to his liking though and being such an unexposed horse you'd have to give him another chance. The money has started to come in the last week or so from what was very appealing at 33's to 14's (Richard Hoiles has been very keen on his chances at the preview nights) . You could also ask the question whether the track may have been part of the reason for such a bad run lto having shown his previous form on flat speedy tracks.

The sort of horse where i'm happy to give him another shot but his price might just start to be too short. Is 14's tempting anyone?
If he had of put in even a decent run to be involved in the finish in the Greatwood I think he would be much more fancied for this and 140 could still be a very lenient mark for him...
 
Jono,
Wait For Me is my cliff horse. He was my bumper horse in Cheltenham 2 years ago. My County fancy last year and this year. Like you I really think there is a big race in him too....and if he gets in here he's got a feather weight. Ive been backing him every couple of weeks for a while now. Ive had a few cuts already at 25-1. Hes the horse that has most of my kitty this year.
 
Zipiter said:
Jono,
Wait For Me is my cliff horse. He was my bumper horse in Cheltenham 2 years ago. My County fancy last year and this year. Like you I really think there is a big race in him too....and if he gets in here he's got a feather weight. Ive been backing him every couple of weeks for a while now. Ive had a few cuts already at 25-1. Hes the horse that has most of my kitty this year.
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I hope so Zipiter. Has become a frustrating horse to follow and I'm sure your not the only one who he's a cliff horse for. Just think it's significant he has been continually well backed race after race even when showing poor form all season.
 
This is also a race where Mullins has a very strong recent record in. Looking through his entries today:

Arctic Fire - despite top weight he could still be far too good for this lot. 50/50 to run. If Willie does run him here you'd have to take notice and expect a bold run from him. I've said it elsewhere with VVM but I don't think Willie will run any horse for the sake of it this festival with such a tough fight for the Irish Championship so surely he'd save him for Punchestown if he's not firing at home.

Renneti - mentioned in the coral cup. I think he'd appreciate the step up to 2m4 but a chance. Kept to 2 miles I think he might be too high in the weights though

Blue Et Rouge - personally never been a fan of the horse and I don't think his jumping is good enough

Bravissimo - ran in the Deloitte hurdle recently along with 5 other WPM runners and seemingly 6th choice that day finishing a well beaten 7th. Lack of handicap experience a big concern. That leads me nicely into the Mullins runner that interests:

Allblak Des Places - 140 - 33/1

Well regarded by the yard when he arrived. Following his debut win he was pitched into the hot looking Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown along with Ivanovich Gorbatov, Let's Dance and Footpad. Came a good second that day beating both LD and (a below par) IG. Tried at 2m4 on seasonal debut the year but then back to 2 miles in the Coral.ie hurdle - a race that has often been a good sighter for this race.
Ruby's pick out of Willies 4 runners that day. He was up with the pace until weakening hugely 2 out dropping right back down the field. Nothing has come out since to suggest an injury or setback since though which was my main concern watching back so that suggests everything is ok with the horse.

Willie Mullins has a great record in this With his runners finishing as below:

2016 - 8 - 24
2015 - 1 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 22
2014 - 2 - 4 - 22
2013 - 2 - 18 - PU
2012 - no runner
2011 - 1 - 7
2010 - 1 - 11 - 24

Hoping this one might follow suit and run a big race and live up to some of that early promise
 
How well in must this Mick Jazz be if they've got Tombstone stepping up to 2m5f to accomodate it? I'm very surprised it hasn't moved a whole more than it has since they won the supreme today. Elliott could have both county and coral cup handicaps cornered with this pair so well in?
 
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