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2017 County Hurdle

Kevloaf said:
Jackie - how do you approach the handicaps. Do you back a few? Strict set of rules? Follow trends? Ones from the tracker? Market vibes? Unlucky horses? Laid out horses? Certain connections?

You have posted much more in the handicap thread in particular so I'm assuming the handicaps are your cup of tea? ..I'd be interested to know how you approach them if that is the case... I am sure I'm not alone :encouragement:
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I certainly enjoy the challenge of the handicaps and I've had some modest success over the years. I would not say that I'm an out and out trends man and this can be my downfall at times. I like to find certain handicap races during the season where I believe the form to be very strong. I don't always focus on the winners but sometimes the placed horses who have proven that they can run well in big handicaps and escaped a harsh penalty. I also focus on routines as well. Some trainers follow similar routes to the festival with their horses and they are merely trying to get the horse to Cheltenham on a good mark and are not interested in winning throughout the season. I'm also a bit of a sucker for Novices in handicaps as I believe they can often be underestimated and hard to get an accurate mark by the handicapper (see Betfair Hurdle). I also look at horses with form over hurdles now running over fences off similar or lower marks. Some trainers are particularly good at using the new discipline to get a horse well handicapped over fences. The obvious course form is also something I like although not necessarily winning course form but running well at the course too.

None of the above is particularly ground breaking, finding the right races, trainers and ultimately horses is where it gets tricky. I always roll up to the festival with a shortlist way before the entries and this is why I am guilty of ignoring trends if these shortlisted horses don't fit. It's part stubbornness and part trusting my instincts as there is nothing worse than having an unbacked winner that you ignored at the last minute. This year I have the following on my radar before the weights:

Romain De Senam - Close Brothes Novice Handicap - chase rating versus Hurdle rating, course form, trainer routine. Nicholls has now come out at messed his price up by sending out a positive report in his stable tour.

Presenting Percy - Pertemps Handicap Hurdle - same connections as last years winner, similar campaign, a Novice with good bumper form in defeat that has probably been underestimated.

Starchitect - Grand Annual - trainer knows how to win handicaps, ran well in the County last year, running off a similar mark over fences.

Tudor City - County Hurdle - ran second in the Coral Hurdle in Ireland which is usually one of the best trials, visually looked good that day and enjoys the large fields, good turn of foot and will have no issues with the hill to my eyes.

There are plenty more I've either already backed or waiting on the weights.
 
Winners 2007-2016

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Thanks JM. I'm sure I am not the only one who found that useful :encouragement: Really looking forward to the weights coming
 
Kevloaf said:
Thanks JM. I'm sure I am not the only one who found that useful :encouragement: Really looking forward to the weights coming
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Me too, cracking post Jackie. To go along with the daily yankees I propose a JM Handicaps Yankee. :encouragement:
 
Brital said:
Me too, cracking post Jackie. To go along with the daily yankees I propose a JM Handicaps Yankee. :encouragement:
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I second that concensus. and JM im a big fan of Presenting Percy too. Not getting much love from the preview nights though :sorrow:
 
Ivanovich Gorbatov still available at 20/1 Nrnb - I couldn't resist!
 
loveracing said:
Same here F_M. I managed to get 25's, but something is telling me he will end up in the Coral after the weights get released. Same as Renneti :(
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Yes i would imagine with his mark he will be near top weight. 10/1 (NRNB) for County might be worth taking as well. one will be refunded.
 
Jonnymac05 said:
Yes i would imagine with his mark he will be near top weight. 10/1 (NRNB) for County might be worth taking as well. one will be refunded.
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I am on 25/1 nrnb JM :)

Did you mean for Coral? 365 are still 20/1 nrnb for County ;)
 
The 2 most talked about horses on this on twitter are IG & Hargam from just various tweets that i have seen
 
They are the two I have backed in this so far JMac. Both nrnb.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
They are the two I have backed in this so far JMac. Both nrnb.
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Have already backed Hargam just based on the positive vibes from this forum, but think i will have to go in on IG even if i feel he will go to the Coral. stake back at worst or i get a run for my money on a Triumph winner
 
I managed to get 28's still on sky bet on Hargam last night thought id join in the fun on this one.
 
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Liam301287 said:
I managed to get 28's still on sky bet on Hargam last thought id join in the fun on this one.
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He could sneak in at the bottom of the weights also way way below last winning mark and to my untrained eye MAY have been raced this year to get the mark down for this.
 
Jonnymac05 said:
He could sneak in at the bottom of the weights also way way below last winning mark and to my untrained eye MAY have been raced this year to get the mark down for this.
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I think this is exactly what they have been doing this season.
 
Jonnymac05 said:
He could sneak in at the bottom of the weights also way way below last winning mark and to my untrained eye MAY have been raced this year to get the mark down for this.
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I think this is exactly what they have been doing this season.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think this is exactly what they have been doing this season.
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Just watched his last 3 races back and he was given such an easy ride all hands and heels and that was hardly vigourous, whip never drawn once.

Either this horse has declined rapidly or its the biggest plot job you will see

15lbs below last winning mark and even 1lb below its 2nd career win(1st win had no mark given)
 
JP winners over/under 12.5 lol....
 
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