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2017 County Hurdle

Liam301287 said:
After William H Bonney won at Cheltenham at trials day I said I would back him at whatever race he would end up in at the Festival. I think last race he was after a mark to get in this. I reckon his got a great shout if he runs.
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134 now - 138 lowest last year
 
Wait For Me in this.

He's a bit of a cliff horse for me but I know there is a big handicap in him.
 
Jonnymac05 said:
quite intrigued with CDT along with Hargam has a good chance. But if your into Stats might be a year too young, last 11 winners were 5 or 6
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Consul De Thaix is a 5 year old
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Consul De Thaix is a 5 year old
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Didn't have time to check last night but I thought he was too, a positive stat then after all that :)

Edit: Also, I can't recall exactly where or when, or even if it was legitimate, but I definitely read something last year about CDT still growing into his frame and this season would see him in better light.
 
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Scrap all that, not been confirmed today for this race, so glad I hadn't managed to get on him yet, but still entered for the Coral Cup, so back to the drawing board for this race now!
 
Arctic Fire an interesting entry in this
 
Jonnymac05 said:
A very interesting entry. i suspect he will carry a lot of weight though with the high OR
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Wait for him to be pulled on the morning of the race and watch a stablemate with 10st 8lb gag up....
 
Guys when does the qualifying mark come out. 138 last year, think it might go up to maybe 140. on quick look through the entries there are a lot of horses ranging from 140-163.
 
Yeah I can't see Arctic Fire running. At the 2015 festival he was rated 154, he's gone up since then, so I'd imagine he'd be giving the field a hell of a lot of weight, trends/stats give him no chance, the last 11 winners have all been rated between 130-140. Though same connections did win it in 2015 with Wicklow Brave.

Willie has 7 entries in total for the race, so will be interesting to see who we are left with in a couple of weeks time.

Him and Paul Nicholls seem to have a very good record in the race since the turn of the century, winning 7 of the last 16 (43.75%) renewals.

Edit: Renneti interests me, but currently looks to have a too high a rating based purely on the trends/stats for it.
 
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Some other interesting entries include, Joey Sasa, no rating in the Post, and also High bridge and Ivanovic gorbachov.

I'm in on North Hill Harvey who has a rating of 149, so will be carrying :(
 
Its a big trend that nothing over 139 wins.
 
doctorwu said:
Its a big trend that nothing over 139 wins.
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Indeed, it's a trend I'm inclined to keep on the right side of too, which is why, despite currently liking Renneti, he may well not be the answer to this race for me come race day.
 
Will need to wait for the Irish horses to be given marks before making any decisions on this, but as some have mentioned the last 11 winners have been rated in the 130s so that should help rule some out for now for win purposes. I know a few fancied North Hill Harvey but he'd be a massive trends buster to win off 149 and there's a few of the Irish who are likely to be around that mark based on their Irish marks - Ivanovich Gorbatov and Renetti. I'm not saying it's impossible for anything in the 140s to win, but it'd be a massive jump for something in the high 140s to do so.
 
#13
Jonnymac05
Senior Member
Join Date
Feb 2015
Posts
115

Based on the stats of the last 17/18 runners on ratings that would leave a shortlist of:

Mick Jazz
Consul De Thaix
William H Bonney
Thats A Wrap
Max Dynamite
Tommy Silver
De Name Escapes Me
Presenting Percy
Fergall
Wait For Me
Hint of Mint
Pique Sous
Air Horse One
Apasionado
Instant Karma
Sternrubin
Winter Escapes
Vosne Romanee
Tigris River
Wakea
Hargam
Princley Conn & Chesterfield

From that list I have managed to get it down to 11 with all the Non Runners

Mick Jazz
William H Bonney
De Name Escapes Me
Wait For Me
Air Horse One
Apasianada
Winter Escape
Vosne Romanee
Wakea
Hargam
Chesterfield
 
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