• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

I like that view in terms of thinking theres not much to take him on with. Even his last time at Cheltenham there wasnt a lot testing him and he didnt jump them too well
 
He's definitely 'heart in the mouth' when it comes to his jumping and maybe I'm underestimating Native River who I have never latched onto, but I think he's special and now he's back to odds against it's times to go back in.
 
I'd be in no rush to back Thistlecrack again as I don't think he had many excuses for yesterday's defeat. He jumped fine in the main, one or two slight errors but nothing that concerned me. He settled well but just didn't get home in my opinion. The extra distance of the Gold Cup is also a big negative.

I'm on at an average of 9/1 but will definitely be laying off in the next couple of weeks
 
Ryanair a possibility?

I think that's an overreaction by PK - he still deserves to take his chance
 
I'd be inclined to wait.. If all the market leaders turn up you'll probably get bigger on the day.. Books love to take a fav on..
 
I've just layed my stake off at 3.1 on the exchanges, fully expect him to be bigger on the morning of race.
 
As I mentioned before I backed Djakadam at 9/1 without thistlecrack, in that same market with betfair you can back outlander at 8/1, I think they are two cracking bets to have in my book, from what could have been one of the best gold cups this year it has now really depleted and will not be a strong renewal, I think if thistlecrack turns up on the day he could nab it, so for that reason it is why I'm playing in the betting without thistlecrack market for now as I'm not so sure as I was about thistlecrack after yesterday
 
Djakadam looks about the right price now. The 16s, 14s and 12s that he has been was silly.

My book on this race is there for all to see. BDM and Native River the only two "losers" in my book at the moment but plenty of time to consider my options.


Thistlecrack has 0% chance of going to the Ryanair. Absolutely 0%. PK is surely just joking... he might have a better chance of winning it but that doesn't mean he would run in it.
 
I'm still pretty optimistic of Thistlecrack's chances actually. Obviously his chances took a knock and it certainly opened up a few doors however a few points to take out the race for me:

Overall I think his jumping was good. A few mistakes in there but still happy overall. He did seem to be a lot less extravagant compared to his other races though - whether that was Tom Scu wanted to slightly more cautious with the horse this time or not? The commentary picked up several times it was economical jumping at most of them. He was never making lengths with his jumping, the first time so far this season against 2 exceptional jumpers in Smad Place and Many Clouds. So he had to use his engine to close the gap which wasn't ideal. The mistake just before 3 out (i think?) was also at the most crucial point in the race for Thistlecrack. It's at this point in his races that he usually kicks on and really pours it on. The mistake cost him vital ground at the point of the race where TC usually kicks on. Instead he had to get back on par with the 2 leaders and was always playing catch up. The flip side obviously to this and his Gold Cup chances are whats to say he won't make the same mistakes again!

I think the form of this race is good. Smad Place ran his race and I think Many Clouds put in a phenomenal performance. He got outstayed at a trip very close to the Gold Cup (with the changes in place it was about 250 yards i think) on very testing ground by probably one of the best and most stour stayers around. Who now sadly is no longer with us. If the race highlighted any stamina worries then it's not that much of a worry for me. It wasn't like he faded under pressure either. I'm also nor sure any other horses in the GC picture would have beaten MC yesterday either

My 2 major concerns right now, which would put me off going back in on the horse antepost:

- I would have big concerns if the ground was to come up soft on the day.

- Whether yesterday may leave a mark on the horse. He takes to his racing well but i'm sure they wouldn't have wanted the race to pan out like it did - obviously not the result they wanted but more so just how much of a battle he faced

Also 2 questions to throw out there:

1. If TC had missed the King George, either by running in the novice race or bypassing it altogether and this was his first outing into novice company, would that make a difference on how the result is viewed? The King George win however you view the form accelerated the horses chances but if yesterdays race was his first test in open company I'm pretty sure we'd be saying that was a great run, now onto the Gold Cup.

2. If TC had of just got back to beat MC on the line. Would we then be saying he proved his stamina by getting back on the line and will to fight?
 
I second you Jono, in the heat of the moment I thought that was a poor run. Looking at it now the dust has settled I think it was a good performance. The link Kev put up earlier from the Times made some good points about the times of the race. I take a positive from the race that he made a couple of crunching errors, both on the same fence aswell (3 out as you say - he just cant seem to jump that fence). Yet he still managed to battle up that hill in unfavourable ground and got pipped to finish a head down to such a strong stayer. I don't think theres too may negatives to draw - mainly the jumping still needs to be cleaned up at the 3rd last and the hard race as you say!
 
I think the main worry for me if I was on Thistlecrack is the mistakes happened when pressure was applied. They were minor mistakes in reality, but they came at a time when there was pressure put on his jumping by the pace increasing.
Unfortunately, we won't see Many Clouds contest the gold cup again, but could we see him winning it in all honesty? I'm not so sure on that, he would run a great race but probably come up short of winning it and we know the extra distance would favour Many Clouds.
I wouldn't want to get involved laying Thistlecrack, but at the same time, there was enough cracks appeared for me to not want to back him at 7/4 either.
The Gold Cup will be harder and quicker than this . Just wish I had taken the 12s on Outlander before this race, but I didn't think the odds would change too much from now until then in the GC !
 
Kevloaf said:
Djakadam looks about the right price now. The 16s, 14s and 12s that he has been was silly.

My book on this race is there for all to see. BDM and Native River the only two "losers" in my book at the moment but plenty of time to consider my options.


Thistlecrack has 0% chance of going to the Ryanair. Absolutely 0%. PK is surely just joking... he might have a better chance of winning it but that doesn't mean he would run in it.
Click to expand...

I quite agree Kev, loved the fact I could get between 12/1-16/1 plus 9/1 in the 'Without Thistlecrack' Market, for a horse that has finished 2nd in 2 Gold Cups to date at ages that suggest (in the races history) he was always fighting a uphill battle. The more I look at the field this year the more I think this could be Djakadams year.

The race has pretty much fallen apart, Vautour passing away, Don Cossack retired, Coneygree injured, Valseur Lido injured, Many Clouds passing away. Then we've got the Tizzard trio, Thistlecrack (a very good novice) prone to a mistake or 2, neither run at Cheltenham has filled me with a lot of confidence (due to his jumping) for his current short odds, those with bigger prices fair enough, but not now. Native River is a top handicapper (albeit I'm not sure how strong them races he won really were), but stepping into Grade 1 company is another thing altogether. Finally, Cue Card, beaten by Thistlecrack at Kempton, in what looked a well below par run by him, if he runs anywhere near his best he makes the frame for me. Best of the rest, Outlander, beaten by Djakadam in the John Durkan before reversing the form in the Lexus, a race that personally I'm not reading too much into as I was surprised Djakadam even went for it, giving him not much rest from a hard fought victory in the John Durkan which was over an inadequate trip for him. I have no idea why Bristol De Mai is as short as he is, his Haydock form is what makes him them odds I guess, one run at Cheltenham, finishing 2nd behind Black Hercules, that horse hasn't exactly boosted BDM's chances this season, the Peter Marsh Chase which BDM won fell apart, 5-6 of them were running from out of the handicap thanks to Alary's inclusion in the race which left BDM with a very nice weight indeed, all he had to hope for was that Alary wasn't quite as useful as connections had hoped, and indeed had his own excuses anyway, and scoped dirty after the race, the rest he beat were handicappers, not Grade 1 winning horses.
 
I'm still very positive on Thistlecrack too. Initially I was a little disappointed after the race on Saturday but looking back, not so anymore.

On the whole he jumped OK, but a few mistakes at crucial times ultimately cost him the race in my view. Although I don't think he was unsuited by the ground, good ground will certainly help and actually coming off the bridle properly for the first time in a good while can surely only be a good thing for the GC.

I wouldn't go so far as to say ~6/4 is brilliant, if he jumps OK, which I think he will on better ground, I can't see anything beating it so maybe it is :p
 
- Whether yesterday may leave a mark on the horse. He takes to his racing well but i'm sure they wouldn't have wanted the race to pan out like it did - obviously not the result they wanted but more so just how much of a battle he faced
Click to expand...

I have been wondering about thought that too. He will have learnt from it but it is not so long since the King George.
 
actually coming off the bridle properly for the first time in a good while can surely only be a good thing for the GC.
Click to expand...

Fully agree - it's been a long long time since the horse has been in a real battle (April 2015?) so I think in isolation it can only be a good thing. I'd much prefer to see that leading up to the Gold Cup than him going into the race not having that experience in him to call upon.

BUT

He will have learnt from it but it is not so long since the King George.
Click to expand...

That's the worry. If say this battle had of been at Christmas time It would have been much better and I actually think if that was the case then they would have then held off running him again and gone straight to the Gold Cup (not that i'm in anyway saying they shouldn't have run him at the weekend)
 
I'm of the opinion the bookies will be offering some decent boosts this year on Thistlecrack. Certainly be able to get 2/1 the week of the race! I won't be going in again but anyone who isn't on yet might as well wait now... money might come on the day, but if it did rain, would you want him onside? Probably not even at 2/1?
 
...and what have I missed regarding Minella Rocco.... best priced 20/1 now? Sea of Blue?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom