It is certainly possible and even if he is just equally effective over 3 miles he'll take some beating ..... I just think the race is a bit tough for novices and when you've got a horse with plenty of speed for the Neptune, I'd stick to that. i thought the same for Barters hill last year, sometimes it's best to stick to the shorter distance and have the stamina be an asset than up the distance and have the horses stamina be really stretched.
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2017 Albert Bartlett Novices
- Thread starter Liam301287
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Faugheen_Machine
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Another impressive performance by Death Duty and it looks like he'll improve for a step up in distance. 3/1 looks a slight over reaction to me though.
Would the trainer comments about him being an Albert Bartlett horse not put you off? I'm only on DD "in any race" so doesn't matter so much but for any future multiples etc... I'd lean towards the AB, following the odds aand trainer comments?
Yes even though its not what i would do, seems very likely that AB is the target. Still think he will have a really good chance of winning so not a crazy decision by the owners/trainer, and they could have blow by blow for the neptune as well so there is that too. Wherever DD goes, ill be keeping him on side.
JackieMoon33
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Although the Neptune distance of 2m 5f is closer to 3m than 2m, it is invariably won by speedy types who subsequently go on to compete over 2m in the future. Looking at the recent winners: Yorkhill, Windsor Park, Faugheen, The New One, and Simonsig, they were mainly speedier types rather than stayers. On good ground at Cheltenham I could see something being a bit too quick for Death Duty personally even though it might be a weaker renewal this year.
Faugheen_Machine
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Agree with all of that. Death Duty likely to be RSA and Gold Cup horse in future so the AB does look the obvious race. As Jackie says, good ground will against him over the shorter trip - just because it will suit speedier horses far more.
jono
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Is it wrong that i'm already lining up in my head how much and often i'll be backing Death Duty for the RSA 2018? 
Is it wrong that i'm already lining up in my head how much and often i'll be backing Death Duty for the RSA 2018?
I went to Exeter with a mate one year and we saw Denman win his fencing debut, he was straight on the machine checking prices not for that seasons RSA (which he won) but the follwoing years Gold Cup.
I think he snapped up some 33s.
I stood next to the same mate at Cheltenham the day he won his RSA and he was back on the machine taking 8/1 for the Gold Cup.
He did OK out of Denman that mate !
So no Jono, it's not wrong in any way to dream....
How many horses have come and gone that weren't Denman though 
... 33/1 for a horse on fencing debut to win the year afters gold cup is a terrible bet, despite it coming in ... there is easily less than a 1 in 33 chance a horse would line up; let alone win haha.
I know this is all in jest of course and I love the hype, but let's sort this year out first shall we haha
Now, you two will probably know this ... are the Irish usually better than the English in this race,because I can't help feeling wholestone is under rated, especially after west approach's effort behind UNWIMH
... 33/1 for a horse on fencing debut to win the year afters gold cup is a terrible bet, despite it coming in ... there is easily less than a 1 in 33 chance a horse would line up; let alone win haha. I know this is all in jest of course and I love the hype, but let's sort this year out first shall we haha
Now, you two will probably know this ... are the Irish usually better than the English in this race,because I can't help feeling wholestone is under rated, especially after west approach's effort behind UNWIMH
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I'm bitter because that was Barters Hill for me :highly_amused: ... another example of it not working out though.
Are we convinced DD is a good thing in this then? I can get on board with that
I think he's the best we've seen, always looked a stayer in the making last year and as long as the potato race is where he ends up he's a good pick
I still think Wholestone is under rated at 16's. Beat West Approach 3 times in a row, before West Approach was running well before unseating at the last behind UNWIMH and he's now shorter in the betting?
I would imagine Messie Des Obeaux in the same ownership goes for the Neptune so target looks fairly obvious too.
There is a chance the UK novices are better than the Irish, certainly were in this race last year? I think he's being over looked still.
I might have an each way double on the two mentioned actually.
I would imagine Messie Des Obeaux in the same ownership goes for the Neptune so target looks fairly obvious too.
There is a chance the UK novices are better than the Irish, certainly were in this race last year? I think he's being over looked still.
I might have an each way double on the two mentioned actually.
JackieMoon33
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If you like the Wholestone form then surely the most under rated horse in the market is Peregrine Run. He beat Wholestone and West Approach over 2m 5f at Cheltenham early in the season and has become the forgotten horse in the race as he was put away for the winter afterwards. The trainer has stated his preference for the Albert Bartlett and somehow he is still available at 25/1. It's a classic example of early season form being forgotten and also the small trainer being underestimated.
I agree 100%. That is an excellent few points and I have backed accordingly! I love the angle of a forgotten horse. Recency bias is one of the most interesting things in horse racing I feel!
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Great to hear mayo. I had given up on him seeing him this season before this. Let's hope he may be the star to light up the Supreme/Neptune (though he could even go AB over 3 miles, esp if Death Duty ended up in the Neptune)
A worry that he won't be out so close to the festival though? Would be approx 8th Feb so around a month before the festival. I imagine you'd struggle to get another run inbetween that and the festival so likely he'd be going into any of the novice races with just 1 run over hurdles.
A worry that he won't be out so close to the festival though? Would be approx 8th Feb so around a month before the festival. I imagine you'd struggle to get another run inbetween that and the festival so likely he'd be going into any of the novice races with just 1 run over hurdles.