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2016 Champion Hurdle

..... Unless you fancy one at a big price
 
Trying to figure this out - I doubt if a decision is made on AP yet and probably depends on a few private races at Willies.

Annie is about 4s for both Tuesday races on Betfair and now c16s for the Stayers.

She had been about 4/5 for the mares and 5s for World Hurdle.

I think old odds implied there was a 75% chance she would run in Mares and 25% chance in stayers.

Now they seem to say it is 20% chance she runs in Mares and 70% chance in Champion Hurdle and 10% in Stayers.

The 10% in Stayers is the probably about the chance that something happens Thistlecrack but call between other two races is a closer call than that ?
 
MG, I approach this like:

What race should she run in ?
What price should she be for that race ?
What would be the best alternative ?

Answer - Mares
Answer - 2/5
Answer - World Hurdle

The fact they are now talking about the Champion hurdle demonstrates how difficult it is second guessing, Ricci/Mullins horses above all others, their engagements.

I can see the interest in trying to work it out and nick some value but I have no idea how they reach their decisions and backing up your view with an outlay of your hard earned cash is dangerous, I would suggest you have more chance of backing a NR than a winner.

I don't know whether you train a 2m 4f horse any differently if switching them to 2m or 3m, or how long it takes to get a horse 2m or 3m perfect.
Does a 400m runner change his/her training regime if suddenly switching to the 200m or 800m, I'd suggest there has to be some change.

I just don't buy this champion hurdle bid.
Someone said the other day that she is becoming the worst placed horse in training, they could well be proved right.....
 
VVM is the problem. If they think they can win the Mares anyway then they might decide to take their chance. Also Ricci doesnt seem the shy retiring type so probably loving all the attention.
 
in other news MTOY misses the Kingwell - straight to Cheltenham without a prep :confused:
 
Yeehaa said:
in other news MTOY misses the Kingwell - straight to Cheltenham without a prep :confused:
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I have him in a few accas but wsant impressed with the Kempton run. The old MTOY would have been pulling out Geraghtys arms.
 
Anthony Bromley, racing manager for Top Notch's owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, said: "It was so pleasing to see him get his head in front after some tough races in defeat this season.

"All roads lead to Cheltenham now. All being well, he'll run in the Champion Hurdle and we'll see if he can sneak a place."

Bromley said it is still "up in the air" whether last season's Triumph hero Peace And Co would join Top Notch in the two-mile showpiece on the opening day of next month's Festival on March 15.

He has been bitterly disappointing in two starts so far this term, but underwent a minor respiratory procedure following his latest short-priced defeat at Sandown
 
I don't know whether Old Guard will win it but it is a lot more open now Faugheen is out of the race," said Nicholls, speaking at a Cheltenham preview after racing at Ascot on Saturday.

"Old Guard loves Cheltenham and he loves better ground. Although he was beaten on Boxing Day I was glad I ran him as I've now given him a month off so he will go there a fresh horse.

"Annie Power was talked about for the Mares' Hurdle and World Hurdle and now she is being talked about winning the Champion Hurdle but I can't see her winning it.

"It is a very open race. My Tent Or Yours has not been seen for two years so I can't see him winning while Peace And Co has had his problems.

"Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire are good horses but only ran ordinary races the other day. The one I like is Identity Thief."
 
mayo said:
I don't know whether Old Guard will win it but it is a lot more open now Faugheen is out of the race," said Nicholls, speaking at a Cheltenham preview after racing at Ascot on Saturday.

"Old Guard loves Cheltenham and he loves better ground. Although he was beaten on Boxing Day I was glad I ran him as I've now given him a month off so he will go there a fresh horse.

"Annie Power was talked about for the Mares' Hurdle and World Hurdle and now she is being talked about winning the Champion Hurdle but I can't see her winning it.

"It is a very open race. My Tent Or Yours has not been seen for two years so I can't see him winning while Peace And Co has had his problems.

"Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire are good horses but only ran ordinary races the other day. The one I like is Identity Thief."
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This is why I would bring SM into the e/w mix. He was ran a blinder 1L behind a race fit Old Guard in December.
 
I wrote a preview for another website and the more I look at the race, the more I'm siding with Identity Thief.

Of course, a cheeky £10 has been placed on the new version of the Ricci Tuesday 4-timer.
 
Richard Forristal :)

While it's understandable that Annie Power is being talked of as being supplemented for the Champion, it is worth remembering that, when it comes to it, Mullins likes to stick to the old adage of a trainer keeping himself in the best of company and his horses in the worst. It might not be a done deal.
 
The Lambourn trainer switched his attention to the opening day: "All five of mine in the Stan James Champion Hurdle can run and it is perfectly possible that all would go for the race, though that is not certain.

"Sign Of A Victory has to have very good ground - he is in good form but must have the right going. Where else do we go with him? He is too high in the handicap to run in the County Hurdle. The ground can change quite quickly at Cheltenham.

"Top Notch and Hargam look in good shape and have done lots of work. Top Notch was great at Kelso, the perfect preparation and everything is cool with him. I have also said that with him and Hargam if you have good ground, then Hargam might come out better, though with very soft ground it would be the other way around. Hargam had a gallop with My Tent Or Yours the other day at Kempton (February 12) and they will be going somewhere to work together this weekend.

"There are a lot of horses (at least a dozen) going to work at Kempton on the All-Weather a week today (February 29) like we always do.

"Peace And Co, who has had a cauterised palate operation, is over that and cantering away. He has only just had a run. It is not the ideal preparation but we can get him there. He definitely made a noise at Sandown which we had not experienced before. Forget his first run of the season at Cheltenham - he ran like a headless chicken for a mile - and so Sandown was like his first run in a year. His back was sore - we have been trying to iron out a lot of things in one go. He can get there.

"We thought of running My Tent Or Yours in the Kingwell (Wincanton) but the ground would have been detrimental. We talked about the bounce factor but we have eliminated that by not running him beforehand!

"It is a hell of a shock coming into a race after any lay-off but two years without a run into the Stan James Champion Hurdle is massive - we are realists and we would buy three weeks if we could but we are going to have a go if all is well. We are having to condense things but he is tough and hardy. His gallop at Kempton was ideal and went very well. Can I retire if he wins the Champion Hurdle?

"Peace And Co and My Tent Or Yours are the best two horses of mine in the Champion Hurdle, while Hargam and Top Notch are both very good and not just there to make up numbers.

"Anything can happen in the next three weeks before The Festival. If any horse is not able to run at Cheltenham, then that is shattering for an owner who has dreamed of getting there."

Henderson would be happy with one winner at The Festival but is hopeful of having more.
 
Mullins on Annie Power:

"I know it's not an ideal prep, only one run before it, but I think probably plenty of horses have done that in the past when you actually think about it," Mullins told At The Races.

"If she was to go for a Champion Hurdle, this is probably the year she should have a crack at it.

"She should probably be going to Aintree for the Aintree Hurdle, I think that is more her race, leaving the others to Cheltenham.

"I don't think she's suitable for the World Hurdle so it's just a straight call between the Champion and the Mares', with Vroum Vroum Mag a possible for that in the same ownership. If we want to give Annie Power a shot at it, this looks the year to do it.

"We'll decide about a hood nearer the day. I thought she settled well, but obviously she was giving Ruby (Walsh) a huge feel which is a good thing. She wears it at home when she's fresh and well.

"I'm hoping to get plenty of work into her before Cheltenham, so she might not need it. I don't think she will in a race like the Champion Hurdle."
 
DeeBee said:
Mullins on Annie Power:

"I know it's not an ideal prep, only one run before it, but I think probably plenty of horses have done that in the past when you actually think about it," Mullins told At The Races.

"If she was to go for a Champion Hurdle, this is probably the year she should have a crack at it.

"She should probably be going to Aintree for the Aintree Hurdle, I think that is more her race, leaving the others to Cheltenham.

"I don't think she's suitable for the World Hurdle so it's just a straight call between the Champion and the Mares', with Vroum Vroum Mag a possible for that in the same ownership. If we want to give Annie Power a shot at it, this looks the year to do it.

"We'll decide about a hood nearer the day. I thought she settled well, but obviously she was giving Ruby (Walsh) a huge feel which is a good thing. She wears it at home when she's fresh and well.

"I'm hoping to get plenty of work into her before Cheltenham, so she might not need it. I don't think she will in a race like the Champion Hurdle."
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Back Door if the others are flying ...
 
Yep, not looking good for the camp.

I like to say it one last time... "don't rule out SM at 33's for this race!"
 
This is set to be the worst champion hurdle for a long time. Annie Power is surely nailed on be supplemented now.
 
Mullins said: "Arctic Fire worked this morning, after which we found out he had a chip on a sesamoid bone.

"We don't yet know whether it will have to be removed or not but I suspect it will. It's likely to leave him out of action for about 12 weeks, which means he'll miss the rest of the season.

"Obviously it's very frustrating, but just as was the case with Faugheen, it is not a career-threatening injury, so we have to look on the bright side."
 
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