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2016 Arkle Trophy Novices Chase

Istabraq said:
Remember Khyber Kim ?
Wasn't he runner up in a champion hurdle.
She rode him to a PTP win a couple of weeks ago, I thought the horse was about 15 now
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Mrs Moulds horse.
 
mayo said:
Geraghty said on get on last Friday that he thought both Lami Serge and vaniteux would be better chasers than hurdlers and could give Douvan something to think about.
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Apart from last years's Supreme L'Ami Serge is unbeaten in England and has beaten some half-decent horses pointless. He had no luck in the Supreme and you can certainly see how he could get much closer to Douvan even on that form; factor in him potentially being a better chaser and, perhaps, softer ground then he has a real chance of really giving Douvan a race. I may be crazy - but he's my bet of the Festival (well.....after John's Spirit off 145 in the 2 1/2 miler:) )
 
Bayoffreedom said:
Apart from last years's Supreme L'Ami Serge is unbeaten in England and has beaten some half-decent horses pointless. He had no luck in the Supreme and you can certainly see how he could get much closer to Douvan even on that form; factor in him potentially being a better chaser and, perhaps, softer ground then he has a real chance of really giving Douvan a race. I may be crazy - but he's my bet of the Festival (well.....after John's Spirit off 145 in the 2 1/2 miler:) )
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I think both the Henderson horses can give Douvan a race but for me I've always heard that within the yard they think Vaniteux is the better - Nico de Boinville in his blog went as far as saying " Vaniteux is definitely better than Lami Serge ..... and there will be more to come on better ground." all of which has me with Vaniteux in my ante post picks !
 
I think there's a real possibility of there being less than 8 runners in the Arkle come the day so if your taking on Douvan with something e/w probably a good idea to do it ante post to guarantee yourself 3 places.
 
Cashew King said:
I think there's a real possibility of there being less than 8 runners in the Arkle come the day so if your taking on Douvan with something e/w probably a good idea to do it ante post to guarantee yourself 3 places.
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Deffo. Vaniteux without Douvan at 7/2 Boyles and 3 generally is still an ew punt in my book.
 
Cashew King said:
I think both the Henderson horses can give Douvan a race but for me I've always heard that within the yard they think Vaniteux is the better - Nico de Boinville in his blog went as far as saying " Vaniteux is definitely better than Lami Serge ..... and there will be more to come on better ground." all of which has me with Vaniteux in my ante post picks !
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Nico was right based on that.
 
Anthony Bromley, racing manager for L’Ami Serge’s owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, said: “That was disappointing. It’s safe to say he won’t be running in the Arkle."

Seriously - how many runners will there be in this - got to be value e/w or without douvan ante post to 3 places.
 
I've already stated on here that Vaniteux is my e/w hope but can't help but have some of the 33/1 on Ttebob with bet365 market without Douvan - don't know if that's a mistake given its 33/1 also in the with Douvan market and most have it around 10s in the without market but the bets on so hey ho. It obviously wasn't right against Douvan at Xmas but was only 3/1 to win that day, is favourite to win the flying bolt and only has the Arkle entry for Cheltenham.
 
Cashew King said:
I've already stated on here that Vaniteux is my e/w hope but can't help but have some of the 33/1 on Ttebob with bet365 market without Douvan - don't know if that's a mistake given its 33/1 also in the with Douvan market and most have it around 10s in the without market but the bets on so hey ho. It obviously wasn't right against Douvan at Xmas but was only 3/1 to win that day, is favourite to win the flying bolt and only has the Arkle entry for Cheltenham.
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I also know they have said there's a race in Ireland at Easter but just think with so few seemingly going to be in the Arkle, the potential place prize money on offer & fact it's there only Cheltenham entry they might reconsider so worth a small speculative punt - 3 milers have done well before ( My Way De Solzen, Captain Chris, Kicking King etc)
 
Violet Dancer 20/1 with Paddy Power for the Arkle after yesterday's win but still 33/1 to win the Arkle with Paddy Power in the without Douvan market !?!
:confused:
 
I never know how to assess these 3 runner races, invariably your opinion is based around how one of the beaten horses performs and in this case L'Ami Serge who everyone assumed was a shoo in for yesterdays race.
Perhaps we're under estimating Violet Dancer who has been beating up on small fields all Winter and could have been unfairly ignored ?
In what is looking a weaker renewal by the day the 50s (Betbright) could be a decent each way play.

That 33s without Douvan price is clearly an error from PP, if you're lucky enough to get on you can expect an e-mail in the next few days confirming they've cancelled the bet, maybe the 14s available still represents value though ?
 
lami serge

He is 100 per cent this morning. He was perfectly all right when we scoped him at the races yesterday," said Henderson.

"He's sound as a pound this morning and we will have to try to find out what went wrong, because it did.

"He was never comfortable at any stage. Obviously it was pretty horrendous ground but he has run on soft ground before, he has run in heavy ground, and it's not been a worry.

"He schooled on Thursday and he was electric. His work has been brilliant and he just didn't turn up on Saturday. I do not know why. We will check him out tomorrow.

"The only thing I would emphasise is that we are not ruling the Arkle out, we are not ruling anything out. I certainly wouldn't rule out the Arkle but if there was a forfeit for the JLT tomorrow we would leave him in that as well.

"We scoped him at the races and he was 100 per cent clean. He's sound and very perky this morning. You wouldn't know he'd been anywhere and this horse all week has been in fantastic form.

"Daryl (Jacob) schooled him on Thursday and you will never see a horse jump better, but that horse didn't jump yesterday. Whether it was ground or what, I don't know.

"We've got to sort it out, we've got to see where we are."
 
I am looking for horses that will actually run...Velvet Maker 40/1 in the without market

After race at Naas Sun, 1st Nov, 2015 (1st) He travels down to a fence and he'd give you the feel of a real good one which we think he is. So hopefully he can go on from this. Hugely impressive. He's quite a keen goer. The lads at home have done a fabulous job with him. His schooling was spot on coming here today. We couldn't really pick any holes in him and he did himself justice. He was able to dictate away there. On his first run today he was just a big gassy. The better the race the more he'll settle. Possibly next year he might get further. I'd say for this season when he is so enthusiastic two miles is enough for him. We're very happy with him. Adrian said he had loads of horse at the finish and he was very happy. He jumped a little high but he'll come down no problem. We think he's a proper two mile horse as he has loads and loads of pace. If his jumping gets a little slicker he'll be a right horse. He looks like he does things easily but he actually puts a lot into it so we'll let him tell us when he's ready to go again. There are a few options for him ahead of Christmas. Alan Fleming
 
mayo said:
I am looking for horses that will actually run...Velvet Maker 40/1 in the without market
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Ill probably wait for NRNB but Sizing John might end up here if it thins out any further ?
 
Lucky I didn't try and get greedy with the 33's...

Violet Dancer injured
Kingmaker Novices' Chase winner Violet Dancer suffered a condylar fracture and is out for the season, his trainer Gary Moore told At The Races. He was a 33-1 shot for the Racing Post Arkle.
 
one in one out

Gary Moore said: "Job done. I was very pleased with him and Josh was very happy. He just had a nice piece of work really. He's very professional and has beaten all the best in this country - it's just that Irish horse left to go now."

Moore was referring to Douvan, who has won on all seven starts since joining Willie Mullins and dominates the market for the Arkle, trading at 2-5.

Moore also revealed that Violet Dancer, a top price of 33-1 for the Arkle having beaten L'Ami Serge in the Kingmaker Novices' Chase at Warwick on Saturday, is out for the season after suffering a condylar fracture.
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Hayley Moore just text Matt Chapman live on ATR, and told him that Ar Mad was found lame after the race today, but hasn't been assessed by the vet.
 
Now official - Gary Moore has confirmed Ar Mad is out for the rest of the season
 
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