2015 Grand National

[Old Vic]

Brian O'connell rides Lord Windermere.

 

[mayo]

Owega star getting a few nibbles



GAMBLE BREWING ON LIEUTENANT



The expected early money for Shutthefrontdoor has materialised with Betfred, Aintree's official betting partner, in the Crabbie's Grand National (4.15pm) but it is First Lieutenant that could end up being the springer, according to the Warrington-based firm.



The Mouse Morris-trained 10-year-old will be ridden by Nina Carberry, who is aiming to become the first female jockey to win the Aintree showpiece.



Shutthefrontdoor is now a 15/2 shot (from 8/1) with Betfred but First Lieutenant has been the biggest mover so far and is now a 16/1 shot (from 25/1).



"The early skirmishes have revolved around two horses - Shutthefrontdoor and First Lieutenant," said Betfred spokesman Andrew Griffiths.



"Our 8/1 about the favourite was swallowed up in no time. He's incredibly popular and there's no doubt he will shorten further as the day progresses.



"There looks to be a gamble brewing on First Lieutenant. We flagged him up as a potential steamer last night and he's a significant mover into 16/1 from 25s."



Rocky Creek has also been popular with Betfred and has been nibbled into 9/1 (from 10/1) while the most interesting each-way pick has been the Peter Fahey-trained Owega Star, who is now a 66/1 chance (from 100/1).



Betfred - Crabbie's Grand National Market Moves



15/2 (from 8/1) - Shutthefrontdoor

9/1 (from 10/1) - Rocky Creek

16/1 (from 25/1) - First Lieutenant

66 (from 100/1) - Owega Star

 

[Yeehaa]

I'll throw in a good word for Owega Star. I spoke to Peter (Fahey) last night and he "has never had the horse so well. his counts are the best they have ever been and he travelled over really well" He seems very excited and was in great form even when expressing his bemusement at the 100/1 price being quoted by some bookies - he was in rare form and on somewhat of a rant and I noticed my own language got worse the more I empathized with him. He has a point though: he is a crazy price, will love the ground, is a great jumper and just needs the requisite luck in running. Good chance of a top 6 finish and who knows?

Market move continues :encouragement:

 

[Yeehaa]

They couldnt have been plotting Ballycasey could they ?

 

[mayo]

Rocky Creek favourite on Betfair

 

[Old Vic]

winner apart weight telling ?

Pos Dist Horse Trainer Age Weight Jockey SP
1st 2 Many Clouds (IRE) O Sherwood 8 11-9 L P Aspell 25/1
2nd 1¾ 24 Saint Are (FR) T R George 9 10-6 pt P J Brennan 25/1
3rd 6 21 Monbeg Dude (IRE) M Scudamore 10 10-7 L Treadwell 40/1
4th 3½ 37 Alvarado (IRE) F O'Brien 10 10-3 Paul Moloney 20/1
5th 1½ 7 Shutthefrontdoor (IRE) Jonjo O'Neill 8 11-2 pt A P McCoy 6/1f
6th 2¼ 40 Royale Knight Dr R D P Newland 9 10-2 Brendan Powell 25/1
7th 10 26 Tranquil Sea (IRE) W Greatrex 13 10-5 t G Sheehan 33/1
8th 2¼ 18 Cause Of Causes (USA) G Elliott 7 10-9 pt P Carberry 14/1
9th 14 38 Soll D Pipe 10 10-2 bt T Scudamore 9/1
10th 10 32 Chance Du Roy (FR) P J Hobbs 11 10-4 p T J O'Brien 40/1
11th 5 13 Mon Parrain (FR) P F Nicholls 9 10-11 bt Sean Bowen 33/1
12th 1½ 8 Pineau De Re (FR) Dr R D P Newland 12 11-0 D A Jacob 25/1
13th 6 34 Owega Star (IRE) Peter Fahey 8 10-3 t R M Power 50/1
14th 25 10 Spring Heeled (IRE) J H Culloty 8 10-12 p Nick Scholfield 25/1
15th 2½ 27 Oscar Time (IRE) R Waley-Cohen 14 10-5 Mr S Waley-Cohen 20/1
16th 3¾ 5 First Lieutenant (IRE) M F Morris 10 11-3 pt Ms N Carberry 14/1
17th 5 4 Rocky Creek (IRE) P F Nicholls 9 11-3 Sam Twiston-Davies 8/1
18th 2½ 15 Night In Milan (IRE) K G Reveley 9 10-9 b J Reveley 20/1
19th 3¼ 12 Dolatulo (FR) W Greatrex 8 10-11 pt D C Costello 66/1

 

[mayo]

8 of the first 10 from bottom half of the handicap so weight will still be high on my list.

I have a rubbish record in this race and need to reel in the bets. Devilishly tricky.

The overround on SP was 165% - something needs to be done about that - blatant overcharging.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

I think apart from the winner, which was a fantastic performance, there were only 3 other horses carrying over 11 st that even finished, had the going been soft I wouldn't think even that many would have done so, Many Clouds would also have struggled I would think with his weight. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does next year, he's unlikely to relent very much even if Many Clouds has a poor run up to the race so he could be giving lots of weight to some good improvers, maybe on soft ground too, so what is already a very tricky race may get trickier.
I'm like you though mayo, I have an awful record in this race, plus there are at least 20 races at the Cheltenham festival that I prefer to watch, there are about 10 that I prefer to watch at this Aintree festival for that matter.

 

[Morning Glory]

I think apart from the winner, which was a fantastic performance, there were only 3 other horses carrying over 11 st that even finished, had the going been soft I wouldn't think even that many would have done so, Many Clouds would also have struggled I would think with his weight. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does next year, he's unlikely to relent very much even if Many Clouds has a poor run up to the race so he could be giving lots of weight to some good improvers, maybe on soft ground too, so what is already a very tricky race may get trickier.
I'm like you though mayo, I have an awful record in this race, plus there are at least 20 races at the Cheltenham festival that I prefer to watch, there are about 10 that I prefer to watch at this Aintree festival for that matter.

:encouragement:

I think most "real"'racing fans feel the same. The national is like Blue Nun wine was in my youth. A good introduction but sh*t when you get to know the subject.

I still know nothing abot wine or horses FWIW.

 

[Yeehaa]

:encouragement:

I think most "real"'racing fans feel the same. The national is like Blue Nun wine was in my youth. A good introduction but sh*t when you get to know the subject.

I still know nothing abot wine or horses FWIW.

Its funny how your view of the National can change when you finally back a winner.

I think one of the things that bothers the hardcore racing fan about the race is that when they get asked by their non racing mates who will win they cant answer the question with much confidence.

What did you all make of TV coverage.

Wot a wardrobe Mrs McCoy has

I actually found Gok alright but thought Frankie added fook all.

He got compared to a bidet in ours - nice to have but not sure what to do with.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I think apart from the winner, which was a fantastic performance, there were only 3 other horses carrying over 11 st that even finished, had the going been soft I wouldn't think even that many would have done so, Many Clouds would also have struggled I would think with his weight. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does next year, he's unlikely to relent very much even if Many Clouds has a poor run up to the race so he could be giving lots of weight to some good improvers, maybe on soft ground too, so what is already a very tricky race may get trickier.
I'm like you though mayo, I have an awful record in this race, plus there are at least 20 races at the Cheltenham festival that I prefer to watch, there are about 10 that I prefer to watch at this Aintree festival for that matter.

I'm sure I read that the handicapper rated the performance at 170 making it the best GN performance in 25 years (I didn't see who the last 170+ perfomance) which is probably fair.

I think the interesting stat would be to see how many of those carrying over 11st (over a few recent Nationals) fell/unseated compared to pulled up. If the majority of those horses were pulled up then without doubt carrying weight stops horses in extreme tests of stamina, if the majority fall/unseat then it's a little less clear IMO.
Interestingly Saturdays renewal saw just one 11st+ horse pulled up (Lord Windermere), two fell (Baltazar King and Unioniste) with four horses completing (Many Clouds, Shutthefrontdoor, First Leiutenant and Rocky Creek).


We know the fences are much easier, the problem with making fences easier is that horses approach them at a quicker pace, are they taking more chances or is it the lack of respect for the obstacles that's leading to mistakes ?
Alo Co, Unioniste and Rubi Light had never fallen in their careers combining 90 odd races before Saturday and all 3 came down, does this mean anything ?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Its funny how your view of the National can change when you finally back a winner.

I actually found Gok alright but thought Frankie added fook all.

Congratulations on finding the winner.
As for Gok, I hate the fact the BBC and now C4 place such a high focus on fashion, I can even remember BBC spending so much time talking to WAGS about their hat and shoe collection they missed the start of a Royal Ascot race.

Racing is for racing fans, no place for Gok or any other excessively feminine wardrobe obsessed bloke IMO....

 

[Old Vic]

I'm sure I read that the handicapper rated the performance at 170 making it the best GN performance in 25 years (I didn't see who the last 170+ perfomance) which is probably fair.

I think the interesting stat would be to see how many of those carrying over 11st (over a few recent Nationals) fell/unseated compared to pulled up. If the majority of those horses were pulled up then without doubt carrying weight stops horses in extreme tests of stamina, if the majority fall/unseat then it's a little less clear IMO.
Interestingly Saturdays renewal saw just one 11st+ horse pulled up (Lord Windermere), two fell (Baltazar King and Unioniste) with four horses completing (Many Clouds, Shutthefrontdoor, First Leiutenant and Rocky Creek).


We know the fences are much easier, the problem with making fences easier is that horses approach them at a quicker pace, are they taking more chances or is it the lack of respect for the obstacles that's leading to mistakes ?
Alo Co, Unioniste and Rubi Light had never fallen in their careers combining 90 odd races before Saturday and all 3 came down, does this mean anything ?

That's a fascinating observation on al co Unioniste and rubi. I think sometimes they over jump but still hard to explain. The Druids Nephew fall was fairly odd too. He jumped ok maybe too well but just crumbled on landing.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

That's a fascinating observation on al co Unioniste and rubi. I think sometimes they over jump but still hard to explain. The Druids Nephew fall was fairly odd too. He jumped ok maybe too well but just crumbled on landing.

OV - I'm convinced it's not the fences that are catching them out, the base of the fences is about 2 foot tall these days with the rest just spruce, similar to what they do with the Cheltenham cross country obstacles on the racecourse proper.
I'm just trying to look at any/all angles to make some sense of things.

TDN fall was indeed an interesting one, again, maybe they're jumping the obstacles quicker and that's what's unbalancing horses ?

 

[mayo]

There was no horse fell for a complete circuit which you would imagine is unprecedented.

There was an older jockey stat from last year First 7 over 35 - think it might have held up well this year too.

Found it 2014


Quote Originally Posted by Ron View Post
I think most of us were rubbish this year Shrews. My worst GN ever. Keith Melrose of Timeform had the winner but I ignored it. If interested the article is still on the Timeform site here. At least all the horses went home safely, which is always good news.
Same as that Ron...maybe we should just back the senior jockeys.

1st 29 Pineau De Re (FR) Dr R D P Newland 11 10-6 L P Aspell 25/1
Mid-division, blundered 13th, in touch 12th, mistake 17th, went 2nd 3 out, soon challenged, led next, ridden clear approaching elbow, stayed on well

Leighton = 37

2nd 5 9 Balthazar King (IRE) P J Hobbs 10 10-13 R Johnson 14/1
Hampered 1st, soon in touch, hampered 9th (valentines), driven 3 out, chased winner last, ridden and hard pressed for 2nd approaching elbow, kept on, no impression opened 16/1

Dickie = 36

3rd 1¼ 14 Double Seven (IRE) M Brassil 8 10-11 pt A P McCoy 10/1j
In touch, blundered 5th, mistake 10th, switched towards outside 17th, ridden to chase leaders after 3 out, stayed on to press for 2nd approaching elbow, no impression with winner £4900-£350 £4800-£400

AP = 39

4th 10 37 Alvarado (IRE) F M O'Brien 9 10-2 Paul Moloney 33/1
Held up behind, headway into mid-division 18th, driven after 3 out, 9th approaching last, ridden and stayed on under pressure flat, went 4th towards finish, never reached leaders

Paul = 35


5th 2½ 5 Rocky Creek (IRE) P F Nicholls 8 11-5 N Fehily 16/1
Tracked leaders, led 18th to 24th (2nd canal turn), with leader, led again 3 out, headed next, ridden and no impression in 4th after last, one pace flat, lost 4th towards finish

Noel = 39 ?


6th s.h 26 Chance du Roy (FR) P J Hobbs 10 10-6 p T J O'Brien 33/1
Towards rear, hampered 9th (valentines), headway into mid-division 23rd (2nd foinavon), chased leaders 26th, one pace in 5th last, no impression

( only a kid born 1986


7th 3 19 Monbeg Dude (IRE) M Scudamore 9 10-9 P Carberry 16/1


Paul = 40

 

[mayo]

This year jockeys fairly senior again

Pos Dist Horse Trainer Age Weight Jockey SP
1st 2 Many Clouds (IRE) O Sherwood 8 11-9 L P Aspell 25/1 age 38
2nd 1¾ 24 Saint Are (FR) T R George 9 10-6 pt P J Brennan 25/1 age 34
3rd 6 21 Monbeg Dude (IRE) M Scudamore 10 10-7 L Treadwell 40/1 age 28
4th 3½ 37 Alvarado (IRE) F O'Brien 10 10-3 Paul Moloney 20/1 age 36
5th 1½ 7 Shutthefrontdoor (IRE) Jonjo O'Neill 8 11-2 pt A P McCoy 6/1f age 40

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

I think part of the reason horses fall that haven't before is that they have never been asked to race over this distance before nor have they jumped fences with the challenge presented by the national ones. As to the weight carried I mentioned the other day that horses carrying higher weights in handicaps can't automatically be dismissed when the ground is riding good, this is purely because they are handicapped as the best horse, or in MC's case second best, but LW has proved this season that last season was a fluke achieved against lesser lights, whereas MC winning the Hennessey was in itself a top class performance, to do it again ove an extra 1m 2f was a supreme effort and must rate up there with the best national winners. I would still say it could have been a completely different story on soft ground, that's when the weight saps the stamina as they try to come up out of the mud.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I think part of the reason horses fall that haven't before is that they have never been asked to race over this distance before nor have they jumped fences with the challenge presented by the national ones.

Mr M - do you consider these fences to carry extreme challenge ?
It's only an opinion of course but I think they've modified them to such a degree they can be taken at greater speed and it's the pace of the race that creates mistakes.
I think the race is getting quicker, haven't checked times and of course the ground and changes to the race distance don't help with comparison but it definitely seems to me there's a far greater focus on stamina now because the pace of teh race is quicker.

 

[mayo]

This years race was second fastest ever but think they lost a half furlong at some stage.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

This years race was second fastest ever

Thanks Mayo, didn't know that but it doesn't surprise me, albeit slightly reduced in distance these days....