• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2015 Grand National

The Crabbie's Grand National moves closer with 87 still on target for Aintree on April 11.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 - All the main protagonists remain engaged in the Crabbie's Grand National as 87 horses go forward for the £1-million spectacular at Aintree on Saturday, April 11.

Shutthefrontdoor (Jonjo O'Neill) heads the betting market as the 8/1 clear favourite with Betfred, official betting partner of the Crabbie's Grand National Festival (Thursday, April 9 to Saturday, April 11). The eight-year-old, who is owned by J P McManus, landed the Irish Grand National in 2014 and looks likely to be the final Crabbie's Grand National ride for record-breaking 19-time champion jockey A P (Tony) McCoy.

His trainer Jonjo O'Neill, successful in the Aintree race over 30 fences with the McCoy-ridden Don't Push It for McManus in 2010, could also be represented by Merry King (25/1), who was fourth in last season's Scottish Grand National, and third to Many Clouds (Oliver Sherwood, 33/1) in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November.

Rocky Creek (Paul Nicholls) is 12/1 second favourite with Betfred following his decisive victory in the BetBright Handicap Chase at Kempton Park on February 21. The current champion trainer, who saddled Neptune Collonges to success in 2012, also has Unioniste (20/1), Sam Winner (25/1), Rolling Aces (40/1), Mon Parrain (40/1) and Benvolio (40/1) going forward.

Since the Scottish Grand National was transferred to Ayr in 1966, three horses have won at both Ayr and Aintree. Red Rum famously captured both contests in the same year (1974) while Little Polveir scored at Ayr in 1987 and at Aintree two years later. The last horse to win both races was Earth Summit, who landed the Scottish Grand National in 1994, four years prior to winning at Aintree.

Al Co (Peter Bowen, 33/1) was successful in the Ayr contest last season, scoring by a length and a half from Godsmejudge (Alan King, 25/1). The 10-year-old disappointed on his first two outings this season, finishing down the field in a handicap hurdle at Haydock in November and pulling up at Aintree in the Betfred Becher Chase over the Grand National fences at Aintree in December. Last time out on February 28, he hinted at a return to form when staying on to take third in a handicap hurdle over an extended three miles at Doncaster.

Bowen, who trains at Haverfordwest in Pembrokeshire, reported today: "It is definitely the plan to go for the Crabbie's Grand National with Al Co.

"I was delighted with his run at Doncaster on Saturday, especially as he still wasn't really quite ready. We may look at giving him one more run before Aintree, which will most likely be over hurdles at Bangor in around a fortnight which will be three weeks before the National.

"He has won a Scottish National so we know he stays four miles and stamina should not be an issue. The ground was too soft for him earlier in the year and we ran him in the Becher just to give him a spin over the fences

"The horse is in good form and I am just hoping for good ground at Aintree next month."

Bowen went close to landing the Crabbie's Grand National when Mckelvey was the three-quarter length runner-up to Silver Birch in 2008 and if successful, Al Co would be only the second Crabbie's Grand National winner to be trained in Wales following Kirkland in 1905.

Last year's Crabbie's Grand National Pineau De Re (Dr Richard Newland, 25/1) remains engaged and, if successful, would be the first horse to win back-to-back renewals of the world's greatest chase since Red Rum in 1973/1974. The 2014 runner-up Balthazar King (Philip Hobbs, 20/1) is also on target along with fourth-placed Alvarado (Fergal O'Brien), fifth Rocky Creek, sixth home Chance Du Roy (Philip Hobbs, 40/1) and the seventh Monbeg Dude (Michael Scudamore, 33/1).

The weights for the Crabbie's Grand National are still headed jointly on 11st 10lb by last month's Irish Hennessy Gold Cup victor Carlingford Lough (John Kiely IRE, 33/1) and the 2014 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Lord Windermere (Jim Culloty, IRE). Both horses are due to run in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday, March 13. Jim Culloty, who rode the 2002 Grand National winner Bindaree, has also left in last year's Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase winner Spring Heeled (20/1).

Other leading contenders for the 2015 Crabbie's Grand National include Soll (David Pipe, 25/1), who put himself in the Crabbie's Grand National picture when successful in veterans' handicap chases at Exeter and Newbury in February, plus Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis, 25/1), who was third in the 2013 Aintree feature.

The next scratchings deadline for the Crabbie's Grand National is on Tuesday, March 24 and they will be released on that day. A maximum field of 40 can line up on at 4.15pm on Saturday, April 11.
 
Carlingford Lough still entered, will McCoy stick to Shutthefrontdoor if CL wins the Gold cup then goes to Aintree
 
The one i like the look of at this stage is Al Co at 40/1 ran a few good races over last couple of seasons in big field type races.
 
Liam301287 said:
The one i like the look of at this stage is Al Co at 40/1 ran a few good races over last couple of seasons in big field type races.
Click to expand...

Bowen has a great record at the meeting. Not sure how many he has had in the race before.
 
Wonder if all those were in prep for the national in mind? Be interesting to see if his still in this after next qualifying period has passed for this race.
 
My shortlist for the big'un:

Rocky Creek: Obvious contender after his comfortable success in the BetBright chase which puts him 9lbs well-in here, as mentioned earlier the wind op clearly seems to have unleashed some more of his ability. Has been targeted for the national since his run last year. Good jumper with form over the fences whose likely to have STD on board. Has been given a manageable weight of 11st 3lbs initially and goes on most ground so is a short price but very solid candidate. However, I would leave backing him until who's going to be top weight is confirmed as he may end up lugging quite a weight if those expected at the top of the weights drop out.

Balthazar King: If ever there was a horse built for mammoth distances and peculiar fences its him. Normally very sound jumper who ran a cracker last year when I though I'd picked the winner only to finish second. Bypassed the festival cross country race this year to be kept fresh for this. Races prominently so avoids a large proportion trouble in running but up 3lbs from last year and wants the ground as quick as possible he will need a career best to win.

Godsmejudge: Fancied for this race last year before being withdrawn due to injury. Has had a quiet season this year being pulled up on his first start and a remote 5th in the BetBright Chase won by Rocky Creek. However, it appears nowadays he needs an extreme stamina test on better ground to be seen at his best with form figures at 4m+ 312. Given a nice initial weight of 10st 8lbs there is no obvious reason why he won't take to the national fences and I think he's a big player if Alan King has him ready.

Alvarado: Had him last year when a very good 4th in this race if unspectacular in running, he is a safe jumper who kept on from 9th place before the last to be 4th at the line. The handicapper has been lenient on him by only raising him a pound from last year. Has run once so far this season in a veterans chase at Doncaster where he was readily outpaced over 3m showing he is all about stamina. Would need to be more prominent towards the end of the race if he is to improve and get on the podium but could be outpaced at the business end before staying on again. As such he is vulnerable for win purposes but a very good e/w shout as he will no doubt be picking off tired horses from the 2nd last on the run to the line again.

Night in Milan: Possibly my favourite pick for the race this year at the odds available. He isn't the classiest, the fastest, the best treated or the most fashionable but is perhaps one of the most genuine and consistent horses I've seen. I fancied him for the race last year hoping he'd get in on a feather weight but it wasn't to be. This year he has achieved a guaranteed place with a mark of 146 having placed in all 3 of his contests. A lover of good ground and lovely jumper, he's run well at Aintree before albeit not over national fences. Still has to prove he gets this sort of trip but nothing so far to suggest he won't as he's normally lugging around 11st 10lbs+ over an extended 3m and I feel this race could be made for him.

Theatrical Star: My outsider for this years race. Up against it to get in off a mark of 139, but if he does scrape into the race underestimate him at your peril. Has on the whole run really well this year culminating in two very good seconds, latterly to Hawkes Point in the Betfred Classic Chase giving weight and the progressive La Reve in the Betfred Masters Chase at Sandown. Thoroughly unexposed over extreme distances this 9yo could make a mockery of the 10st 2lbs initially awarded if he gets in. An adequate enough jumper he appears to be fine on all ground and I fully expect him to be much shorter than his current 66/1 NRNB if he gets a run!
 
Good write up Lessey. I would be really pleased if Balthazar King could break Richard Johnsons duck in the race. It would be a nice alternative story to an AP win.
 
Chance Du Roy seems good e/w value at 40/1 nrnb bog with Bet365.
Held up in rear last year to be hampered twice and still finished 6th. In very good form atm and in with a good weight. He carries 10-4, 11 yrs old, OR141 and has experience over Aintree, so should give a good run for your money.
 
loveracing said:
Chance Du Roy seems good e/w value at 40/1 nrnb bog with Bet365.
Held up in rear last year to be hampered twice and still finished 6th. In very good form atm and in with a good weight. He carries 10-4, 11 yrs old, OR141 and has experience over Aintree, so should give a good run for your money.
Click to expand...

:encouragement:

Like the age and weight profile.
 
Balthazar King and Dickie Johnson are such fan favourites it would be great to see them win this, I don't think anyone would begrudge them.

Agree LR, Chance Du Roy is another good e/w shot who will complete and probably snare a place but don't think he's strong enough at the finish to win but at 40/1 you're gonna get 10/1 for a place with him which is good going!
 
Lessey said:
Balthazar King and Dickie Johnson are such fan favourites it would be great to see them win this, I don't think anyone would begrudge them.

Agree LR, Chance Du Roy is another good e/w shot who will complete and probably snare a place but don't think he's strong enough at the finish to win but at 40/1 you're gonna get 10/1 for a place with him which is good going!
Click to expand...

Thats right Lessy, I don't think he will win but good place chance. In this race you have to back the horses you fancy e/w and its a bonus if they end up winning.

Rocky Creek is short enough but looks interesting after his wind op.

PDB if it pisses down with rain.
 
Anyone got any feelings about Roi du Mee?

The horse has definitely had something of a rejuvenation lately and is running well out the front. He's going to be lumbered with a fair old weight but is used to carry big weight round extended 3m events and watching his jumping the last twice he's pretty tidy. As well as showing no signs of stopping at the line!

66/1 obviously demonstrates the risk involved with him as he can be enigmatic but I have this suicidal soft spot for horses like that and if Elliott confirms him as going I can see him being no bigger than 33s anywhere!
 
Old Vic said:
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National:

180 The Druids Nephew

177+ Many Clouds

176 Shotgun Paddy, Spring Heeled

176? Double Ross

175p Shutthefrontdoor

175+ Back In Focus

175 Burton Port, Broadway Buffalo, Cause of Causes, Godsmejudge, Monbeg Dude, Theatrical Star

175? Ballycasey, Mountainous, Super Duty

174 Chance du Roy, Renard, Rocky Creek, Vintage Star



Selected others:

173 Balthazar King, Carlingford Lough

172 Lord Windermere, Merry King, Pineau de Re, Sam Winner, Teaforthree, Unioniste

171 Alvarado, Oscar Time
Click to expand...

Has this been updated - presume The Druids Nephew even more well in now ? Rocky Creek must gave taken a jump up too?
 
the first thing I always do when looking for something to back in the National is draw a line above anything carrying 11st 3lb, and then start my search below that. Even horses that are justifiably higher rated and used to carrying big weights have not done so over four and a half miles jumping the biggest fences in steeplechasing, those tested at three or three and a half miles are given weights that are based on that, to then carry that weight over an extra mile or a mile and a half is usually too much to ask, very occasionally we see an outstanding weight carrying performance, in those years I'm happy to not be involved, but there has been one in about the last 20 years, Neptune Collonges, the weight almost always takes it's toll.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
the first thing I always do when looking for something to back in the National is draw a line above anything carrying 11st 3lb, and then start my search below that. Even horses that are justifiably higher rated and used to carrying big weights have not done so over four and a half miles jumping the biggest fences in steeplechasing, those tested at three or three and a half miles are given weights that are based on that, to then carry that weight over an extra mile or a mile and a half is usually too much to ask, very occasionally we see an outstanding weight carrying performance, in those years I'm happy to not be involved, but there has been one in about the last 20 years, Neptune Collonges, the weight almost always takes it's toll.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. Neptune Collonges and Dont Push it only winners in last 20 years to defy that weight. i think T43 only horse carrying more than 11st to in finish in first ten since new fences and more watering introduced 3 years ago.
 
The donns verdict?

Shutthefrontdoor is a legitimate favourite on the Sportsbook (remember, it's now Non-Runner-No-Bet and five places on offer for each-way punters), a high-class staying novice chaser last season, last year's Irish National winner and probably AP McCoy's ride in his last ever Grand National. However, 8/1 about a horse we haven't seen since last November, and who missed a couple of intended engagements in the interim, is very short.

Rocky Creek and Soll offer better value at bigger odds. Rocky Creek is only an 11/1 shot on Betfair's Sportsbook, but it is easy enough to argue that even that is too big.

Paul Nicholls' horse has an awful lot in his favour for this year's National. He ran a cracker to finish fifth in the race last year as an eight-year-old, he jumped the big fences well and he was always prominent until he weakened from the second last fence.

Eight-year-olds generally struggle in the Grand National. Bindaree in 2002 is the last eight-year-old to win it, and he was just the third since Red Rum won his first in 1973. It is an older horse's race.

Hedgehunter was an eight-year-old in 2004 when he raced in the front rank for much of the race before he fell at the final fence, a tired horse. Then Willie Mullins' horse went back the following year as a nine-year-old and, racing off a 3lb higher mark, won it doing handsprings. In so doing, he became the first horse to carry more than 11st to victory since Corbiere in 1983.

Rocky Creek will actually get to race off a 2lb lower mark than last year's, and that gives him a massive chance. He is a better-handicapped horse this year despite the fact that he should be better-equipped for the race now as a nine-year-old.

As well as that, he has been trained specifically for the race this year since he disappointed in the Hennessy in November, and he put up a really impressive performance to win the BetBright Chase at Kempton on his most recent run. He travelled really well through that race, he jumped superbly and he appeared to win with plenty of energy still in reserve, despite the fact that he beat the talented Le Reve by six lengths in a good time.

The handicapper raised him 11lb for that run but, because the National is a (very) early-closing race, he gets to race off his old mark of 154. He is one of the best-handicapped horses in the race, and he should probably be favourite.

Soll is also a well-handicapped horse. The handicapper raised him 7lb for his latest win in a veterans' handicap chase at Newbury but, because that race - like Rocky Creek's BetBright Chase win - was run after the National weights had been published and set in stone, he will be 7lb well-in. Such is the uniqueness of the National that he doesn't even have to carry a winner's penalty.

A point-to-point winner and a progressive staying novice chaser in 2011/12, Soll raced in the National as an eight-year-old two years ago, and he did well to finish seventh after losing a good prominent position when badly hampered by a loose horse at the Chair.

He lost his form a little towards the end of last season, and he didn't make the cut for the National. He diverted to the Topham, but the two-mile-five-and-a-half-furlong trip was never going to be far enough to bring his undoubted stamina into play.

That stamina did come into play in a three-mile chase at Exeter in February. Making his debut for David Pipe that day, he was under pressure from early, but he kept responding and he stayed on gallantly to beat the useful Rebel Rebellion with Grove Pride, a winner since, back in third.

It was no harm that the handicapper raised him 9lb for that. He had to go a fair bit higher than 130 if he was to give himself a realistic chance of getting into the National. You can be sure that that was the objective of running in that race before the weights were published, you can be certain that the National has been his primary goal since he joined the Pipe yard.

The Presenting gelding stepped forward again from that Exeter run when he won at Newbury last time off his new mark of 139. With first-time blinkers replacing his customary cheekpieces, he travelled really well through his race, a little too exuberantly if anything.

Conor O'Farrell allowed him stride on at the cross-fence, and he got the better of a good dual with Relax over the four fences up the home straight, ultimately getting home by three parts of a length in a really good time, with the pair of them 11 lengths clear of their closest pursuer.

Like Rocky Creek, he is a well-handicapped horse who jumps the big fences well and who should be better-equipped for the rigours of the race this year than he was when he last ran in it as an eight-year-old. He seems to be an improved horse this year for Pipe - his last run was a career-best by some way - and he is worth backing at 29.028/1 on the Exchange.

Soll is 20/1 on the Sportsbook with a run, but the percentage call is to back him on the Exchange at the much better price. By contrast, Rocky Creek is available to back at 12.5n/a on the Exchange, but he is 11/1 with a run on the Sportsbook, so best to go with the latter.


Recommended Bets
1 point Win Rocky Creek @ 11/1 (Betfair Sportsbook - Non-Runner-No-Bet)
1 point Win Soll @ 29.028/1 (Exchange)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I've backed four so far. All 33/1 or bigger, the are:
Unioniste 66/1
First Lieutenant 40/1
Godsmejudge 33/1
Al Co 33/1

Of the shorter priced runners, I like TDN but BJG missing the ride will stop me from backing him until I know who'll be on board.

I would love Broadway Buffalo to get a run but I might have to wait for Ayr or Sandown.
 
Broadway Buffalo on Donns list

Broadway Buffalo

Broadway Buffalo did well to finish second to Cause Of Causes in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham given how the race panned out.

Settled towards the rear of the field and on the inside through the early stages of the race by Katie Walsh, he jumped and travelled well. Still last as they started down the back straight final time, he made nice progress down the far side and travelled well to the final ditch. He was right beside Cause Of Causes at that point, but he got squeezed out of it a little at the ditch and he left his hind legs in it, losing valuable ground and momentum, with the net result that, by the time they turned at the top of the hill, he was four places and about six lengths behind the eventual winner. It was the wrong time in the race to make such a jolting mistake, just as the pace was starting to increase.

Katie got him back balanced, and gave him time to recover his equilibrium. Back on the bridle, he made another mistake at the second last (the usual third last) but he still travelled well around the home turn, on the inside. He moved up on the run to the last and jumped that obstacle no more than a length behind the leader. He picked up well on the run-in, around the omitted final fence, but so did Cause Of Causes, and Gordon Elliott’s horse had enjoyed a smooth run through the race under Jamie Codd. He was not for catching. Even so, Broadway Buffalo ran all the way to the line, and the front pair pulled five lengths clear of third-placed The Job Is Right.

This was a fine effort from David Pipe’s horse. On official ratings he had 9lb to find with Cause Of Causes, and he got close to him, despite the fact that he did not enjoy the run of the race. He handled this good ground well, but he also goes well on heavy ground, as he proved when he won the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in December. He does have to be ridden this way, dropped out the back and making his ground gradually, he does seem to enjoy passing horses, but he is good when things do drop his way. He proved at Cheltenham too that he can handle an undulating track as well as a flat track.

The handicapper raised him 4lb for this to a mark of 141, which is fair. He is in the Grand National, and he would be 4lb well-in in the race if he did get into it. He could be an interesting outsider in the National, but he is only seven and he would need things to drop his way. He still has scope for progression as a staying chaser, he is still a relatively young horse and he has only raced nine times over fences. He will be of interest wherever he goes next, but the three-mile handicap chase at Aintree might be a better option for him at this stage of his career than the National.

10th March 2015
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom