I am going to try and go through all the handicaps today.
Trends
- Paul Nicholls has targeted this is recent seasons winning with Sanctuaire in 2010 and saddling the runner up for the last two seasons
- The Pipe runners should also be respected. David Pipe has 1 winner and 4 places from 11 runners
- Gordon Elliott, Gary Moore and Alan King trained runners should also be respected
- Willie Mullins 9 runners have all finished unplaced
- Fillies have won 3 of the last 6 renewals
- Fillies have won 4/10 of all renewals from an overall representation of about 10%
- 9 /10 winners were rated between 124 and 133
- 7/10 winners ran on the flat
- The top rated flat horse has won the race on 3 occasions and been runner up once
- Irish Bred horses have won 5 renewals and filled 6 places from 83 runners.
- French Breds are 4-13-70 and British Bred: 1-7-60
- 9/10 winners had a prep race less than 32 days beforehand
- 5/10 winners won last time out
- 8/10 were making their handicap debut
- Horses getting into the race by carrying a penalty have won on 2 occasions (50% strike rate)
http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham...nter-Juvenile-Handicap-Hurdle-Trends-2015-117
The Filly Trend
The filly trend is easy Alan Kings
Nyanza is the only one that might get in. King hasnt won this but has filled 5 places from 17 runners. He is also 2 wins and 4 places from 12 in the Triumph over the decade giving him a combined stats for four year olds of 2 wins, 9 places from 29 runners.
Went off to France to run in the flat last week but will be on the shortlist if running. 25/1 NRNB with
Betfair Sportsbook
The Flat Rating Trend
There are a few for the shortlist based on their flat rating. The David Pipe trained Unanimite was rated 94 on the flat and looks best in when comparing hurdle and flat rating of the runners. 20/1 is available with the NRNB books.
Pipe has a good record so that is a couple of trends boxes ticked,
The Dermot Weld trained Zafayan may struggle to make the cut but looks well in if flat form transferred to hurdles 129 versus 89.
I have added flat ratings for all runners to the first post on the thread.
The Official Rating Trend
With the cut off projected at 130 the 124-133 trend is likely to actally mean 130-133. Which gives us this sample. We have added bold to those horses where trainers have a good record and Starchitect because of earlier positive comments from Jason Maguire and Mccain.
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| 121336 | BAIE DES ILES (FR) | 4 | 134 | - | 11-02 | Ross O'Sullivan IRE | Mrs Z Wentworth |
| 14P | JEANPASCAL (FR) | 4 | 133 | - | 11-01 | Venetia Williams | Dr Moira Hamlin |
1122
| STARCHITECT (IRE) | 4 | 133 | 84 | 11-01 | Donald McCain | Paul & Clare Rooney |
392134
| BOUVREUIL (FR) | 4 | 133 | - | 11-01 | Paul Nicholls | Potensis Bloodstock Ltd & Chris Giles |
| 512 | SOURIYAN (FR) | 4 | 133 | - | 11-01 | Jamie Snowden | The GD Partnership |
| 131 | ZARIB (IRE) | 4 | 133 | 82 | 11-01 | Dan Skelton | Notalotterry |
1214
| NYANZA (GER) | 4 | 132 | 77 | 11-00 | Alan King | Hunscote Stud |
| 115 | MR GALLIVANTER (IRE) | 4 | 131 | 79 | 10-13 | John Quinn | Ross Harmon |
B3-421
| QUALANDO (FR) | 4 | 131 | - | 10-13 | Paul Nicholls | Kathy Stuart |
| 33336F | VERAWAL (IRE) | 4 | 131 | 66 | 10-13 | Willie Mullins IRE | Supreme Horse Racing Club |
221
| HOSTILE FIRE (IRE) | 4 | 131 | 79 | 10-13 | Gordon Elliott IRE | Mrs Pat Sloan |
2134
| BARON ALCO (FR) | 4 | 131 | - | 10-13 | Gary Moore | John Stone |
21-64
| IBIS DU RHEU (FR) | 4 | 131 | - | 10-13 | Paul Nicholls | John Hales |
| 63611 | BEATABOUT THE BUSH (IRE) | 4 | 130 | 45 | 10-12 | Henry Oliver | Ms S Howell |
| 6232 | MICK JAZZ (FR) | 4 | 130 | - | 10-12 | Harry Fry | Potensis Bloodstock Limited |
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There are a few fancied horses in here including Gordon Elliotts Hostile Fire.
The same connections landed a touch with Flaxen Flare in this race. Nyanza turns up here again and ticks another box, Paul Nicholls ( should we include those of his former pupils ?) and Gary Moore runners are also worth a second look. Mullins has never had a horse placed in this.
Betting Stats
The odds of winners are all over the shop Favourites have won 2 of 10 renewals, and been placed in another 4 giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.
Gault noted that in -
2014 Katgary in 2nd only one in the first 11 home under 16/1. Shortest priced animal in the first 14 home
2013 was 14/1.
2012 Two horses priced 10s and under finished in the first 6 in 2012.
2 in 2011, 3 in 2010.
That brings the total to 12 in 109 runnings. That's 12 out of the first 60 home.
What to do with that info ?
I think you have to look for an outsider and hope for the best !
Ill have another look closer to the race but here is my initial and personal ( i.e not the FJ) shortlist
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Thoughts corrections and further suggestions welcome
