Sorry to detract from the Pendra love for this race currently going on but I have taken a harder look at this race and can no longer see the value in Pendra despite his breathing op.
I will however, suggest a completely under the radar alternative that I think could run a huge race at a big price...
The Henry de Bromhead trained Grand Jesture @ 33/1. A maiden over hurdles despite a few near misses he was always going to be a better chaser and subsequently delivered on his first chase start. Still a relative novice to chasing having had only 5 chase starts, he ran some good races in defeat when stepped up to 3m, going down by 8 1/4 lengths to My Murphy and 2 lengths to Chartreux in only his 2nd and 3rd chase starts respectively. He improved to win on his 4th start beating Sadler'sflaure and the highly regarded Foxrock over 2m6f and was quietly fancied in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Xmas, only for conditions to come up very testing and he subsequently ran no sort of race when failing to get through the ground and can be forgiven that run considering it's his only bad run over fences to date.
He is not overly well-treated by the British handicapper, has no Cheltenham form and De Bromhead admits he's very talented by headstrong..."He's a horse with a lot of ability, but he has his own way of doing things and it's a case of trying to get him to produce it. We had to reverse him into the ring today to get him in. He's a real character."
However, he's a horse crying out for better ground, is still unexposed over fences and looks sure to improve. He stays the trip very well, has a very good claimer doing the steering in Johnny Burke who will take off a handy 3lbs, has been deliberately kept fresh and laid out for this race and matches a lot of the trends of previous winners.
In a race that has thrown up winners at 50/1, 33/1 and 28/1 since 2007, he seems an ideal sort to land another big price shock.
Nothing in life is a guarantee other than you will die one day.
