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2015 Champion Hurdle

I think that guy from above clip has read my thoughts on this race:p
 
iainmcf said:
I think that guy from above clip has read my thoughts on this race:p
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Seems like decent analysis apart from watching a different race at Haydock to me, according to this guy TNO went on from three out whereas I seem to remember him struggling to get in front on the run in.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
Seems like decent analysis apart from watching a different race at Haydock to me, according to this guy TNO went on from three out whereas I seem to remember him struggling to get in front on the run in.
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Think Neil meant Bertimont kicked on 3 out, and it was a tough race for The New One, who struggled to get on terms.


I had Faugheen in a double with Vautour for the Arkle, which has gone south...

Even though I have no real financial interest in the race, I can't wait to see these 3 battle it out.
 
TimRiggins said:
Think Neil meant Bertimont kicked on 3 out, and it was a tough race for The New One, who struggled to get on terms.


I had Faugheen in a double with Vautour for the Arkle, which has gone south...



Even though I have no real financial interest in the race, I can't wait to see these 3 battle it out.
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I feel your pain there Tim, I had that same double, I'm fully loaded on Faugheen on his own though, should be laying him off now really.
 
Faugheen will not win.

He might have but has had a crazy prep.

Hurricane Fly is Willies favourite.
 
Hoof said:
Faugheen will not win.

He might have but has had a crazy prep.

Hurricane Fly is Willies favourite.
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I think Faugheen is that good he does not need a prep run 3 month prior to the race. Connections are saying "he won't lose".

If he doesn't win you won't see me on this forum until end of 2015. ;)
 
Kitten Rock

...some talk of a Grade 2 at fairyhouse

 
I think Kitten Rock will only run as a pacemaker for Jezki, he's been the beneficiary of mistakes in his last two runs, yesterday Abyssial cruised alongside approaching two out then fell when, to my eyes, he looked all over the winner. In his previous start Glens Melody fluffed his lines at the last when challenging, that could have gone either way, against far superior opposition in the champion I can't see him being involved in the shake-up.
What about the Kingwell, thinking about Blue Heron winning yesterday and looking back to what Faugheen did to him makes you wonder just what Mullins has with that horse.
 
Quoted on his website, Nicholls said: "It was disappointing to see Irving put in his place by Blue Heron in the Kingwell Hurdle. It looked as if he got a bit tired in the ground and strictly on that performance it would make no sense to take him to Cheltenham for the Champion Hurdle. First though, I will be talking to his owners before making a decision."
 
WPM

Faugheen: He’s doing everything right. I looked at him, I looked at Vautour. To have a potential Champion Hurdler is huge for the yard. We thought Vautour was a horse who could win the Arkle and possibly be a Gold Cup horse one day but we weren’t as sure about that for Faugheen. I can’t find a reason why he won’t run well [in the Champion Hurdle]. I asked Ruby if he needed another race after Kempton and he said ‘No’ and I was guided by that.

Hurricane Fly: It can be done at 11. People say he doesn’t run well at Cheltenham but I’m not so sure – he’s run there four times, won twice and I think I had two good excuses for the other times. I felt on his last two runs last season that he wasn’t sparking the way the way he can spark. He wasn’t sparking not enough not to run him, but he wasn’t quite there. So far this year he hasn’t shown any of those signs – and he will tell you all right. He’s very clear in what he’s telling us and so far it’s very good. He was quite tired after the Irish Champion for a week, when it’s usually only a day or two. He went back in himself, but since then he has been as good as ever. If he can do it, it would be my dream result of the Festival

Arctic Fire: He's the one (in the Champion) who is improving all the time. I'm not discounting him. I still haven't got the best out of him yet. I think he's one that even if he doesn't win the Champion, he's going to win a really big race over hurdles.
 
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More on the other thread :)

Faugheen: "He is doing everything right. Nigel Twiston-Davies has questioned what Faugheen has beaten and I am going to side with him on that for the time being! I thought Faugheen might go chasing this season but, when we analysed everything and looked at the fact that he hadn't been beaten, everyone was keener for him to go back hurdling and Vautour to go chasing. To have a potential champion hurdler in the yard is huge, rather than a horse going for the Arkle. We thought Vautour could possibly win an Arkle and possibly be a Gold Cup horse one day and we weren't as sure about Faugheen doing that. I did not want to travel to England again for a prep run and I didn't want to take on Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion. We prepared Faugheen for the Red Mills Trial but, after a good discussion with Ruby, we felt he didn't need any more experience. We looked up the stats and have seen plenty of horses that have gone straight from Kempton to Cheltenham without a run. I think people look too much into stats, especially ones only going back 10 years or so. I prefer to look back 25 or 30 years."
 
Not sure about that Willie. The key bit in all that was that he didn't want to run against the fly.
 
mayo said:
More on the other thread :)

Faugheen: "He is doing everything right. Nigel Twiston-Davies has questioned what Faugheen has beaten and I am going to side with him on that for the time being! I thought Faugheen might go chasing this season but, when we analysed everything and looked at the fact that he hadn't been beaten, everyone was keener for him to go back hurdling and Vautour to go chasing. To have a potential champion hurdler in the yard is huge, rather than a horse going for the Arkle. We thought Vautour could possibly win an Arkle and possibly be a Gold Cup horse one day and we weren't as sure about Faugheen doing that. I did not want to travel to England again for a prep run and I didn't want to take on Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion. We prepared Faugheen for the Red Mills Trial but, after a good discussion with Ruby, we felt he didn't need any more experience. We looked up the stats and have seen plenty of horses that have gone straight from Kempton to Cheltenham without a run. I think people look too much into stats, especially ones only going back 10 years or so. I prefer to look back 25 or 30 years."
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I spoke to someone today who reckons spoke to connections of NTD and they say beating Faugheen is a tough ask but will give it a shot.
 
mayo said:
More on the other thread :)

Faugheen: "He is doing everything right. Nigel Twiston-Davies has questioned what Faugheen has beaten and I am going to side with him on that for the time being! I thought Faugheen might go chasing this season but, when we analysed everything and looked at the fact that he hadn't been beaten, everyone was keener for him to go back hurdling and Vautour to go chasing. To have a potential champion hurdler in the yard is huge, rather than a horse going for the Arkle. We thought Vautour could possibly win an Arkle and possibly be a Gold Cup horse one day and we weren't as sure about Faugheen doing that. I did not want to travel to England again for a prep run and I didn't want to take on Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion. We prepared Faugheen for the Red Mills Trial but, after a good discussion with Ruby, we felt he didn't need any more experience. We looked up the stats and have seen plenty of horses that have gone straight from Kempton to Cheltenham without a run. I think people look too much into stats, especially ones only going back 10 years or so. I prefer to look back 25 or 30 years."
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stats Like these :)



Only Kribensis ’90 of the last 23 Kempton Xmas Hurdle winners was able to complete the Champion double.

All bar Rock On Ruby of the last 18 winners seen out since the Saturday before AIG Irish Champion Hurdle (26th January- 44 days).

All bar Rock On of the last 20 and 28 from last 32 winners all ran since Jan 1.

Rock On Ruby first since Granville Again to come straight from the Christmas Hurdle.

Even last year N Henderson brought out My Tent Or Yours to win a February jumpers bumper at Kempton
 
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Paddy Power haven't taken a cent on Ruby riding the Fly.

If Faugheen loses Mullins is going to have those numbers shoved in his face. I suppose advantage of being fresh is that they can take in Aintree and Punchestiwn now.
 
Old Vic said:
stats Like these :)



Only Kribensis ’90 of the last 23 Kempton Xmas Hurdle winners was able to complete the Champion double.

All bar Rock On Ruby of the last 18 winners seen out since the Saturday before AIG Irish Champion Hurdle (26th January- 44 days).

All bar Rock On of the last 20 and 28 from last 32 winners all ran since Jan 1.

Rock On Ruby first since Granville Again to come straight from the Christmas Hurdle.

Even last year N Henderson brought out My Tent Or Yours to win a February jumpers bumper at Kempton
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It's also true that he is one of only 2 Neptune winners out of the last 20 not to run in that calendar year and the only one to have his previous run over 3 miles so if he had beaten with these similar stats last year and easy six length winner of the Neptune would have been missed.
 
Mytentoryours said:
It's also true that he is one of only 2 Neptune winners out of the last 20 not to run in that calendar year and the only one to have his previous run over 3 miles so if he had beaten with these similar stats last year and easy six length winner of the Neptune would have been missed.
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:) good comeback MTOY

Was last years Neptune any good ? Being devil advocate tbh but Cole Garden and Lieutenant C only other horses to take out of it ?
 
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