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2015 Arkle Trophy Chase

MrMcGoldrick said:
I still have hopes for Sgt Reckless to go well in this, he could be a real surprise package if he turns up, good ground will suit, he ran on well in last years supreme, just the lack of experience that's a worry, connections won't run him on ground that isn't decent.
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It is not unheard of for the winner to have had one chase start.;)
 
Not sure why people think this a race to play each-way? Unless something happens to the front two you most likely have a number of horses just battling it out for just one place.
 
kinloch brae said:
Not sure why people think this a race to play each-way? Unless something happens to the front two you most likely have a number of horses just battling it out for just one place.
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I backed Sgt Reckless ages ago, not quite sure which the front two are, UDS obviously is one, but I was under the impression the rest was debateable, I know there are those who fancy VV but there are also those who don't. UDS is a buzzy horse so it's not a foregone conclusion that he will be at his best with the biggest and loudest jumps arena there is, so if he is settled, and if he jumps round are still 2 if's. I intend laying him in running prior to the second last if he's been worked up and is trading at 1/10 on Betfair, will be a good bet whatever happens under those circumstances, so when I say I've backed SR each way, I still have hopes of a win, if he turns up, he does have Chelters form and UDS doesn't. Having said all that I expect this machine to cruise to victory so it's all a game beyond that, but he wouldn't be the first cert to blow up at this meeting, and he wouldn't be the only one this season either.
 
Has it been debated whether UDS will act on good dround, can't see that he has form on it, though his action suggests it shouldn't be a problem, just wondering what is in his ancestral line that may throw up clues
 
kinloch brae said:
Not sure why people think this a race to play each-way? Unless something happens to the front two you most likely have a number of horses just battling it out for just one place.
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This race will cut up to 6 or 7 runners imo.When you hav an odds on shortie its the right play to back something now ew against the fav.No horse will lay up with UDS so theres 2 places up for grabs.Josses isnt a good jumper, Clarcam dosent get the 5 yr old allowance this time, VV maybe wont be as good being far off the front runner leaves Smashing and Three Kingdoms,20/1 shots now to be backed ew, I dont think Sgt Reckless will run after just one run but thats just my opinion, thats the way I see this race.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
Has it been debated whether UDS will act on good dround, can't see that he has form on it, though his action suggests it shouldn't be a problem, just wondering what is in his ancestral line that may throw up clues
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I don't think there is much chance of quick ground on Tuesday. If there is it will be 'doctored'.

I appreciate others may see it differently but if I place and each-way bet I have to believe that there is a chance of landing the win element beyond just a hope that the favourite might just blunder his chance away. I like Smashing but would much rather have taken a shorter price in a Grand Annual.
 
kinloch brae said:
I don't think there is much chance of quick ground on Tuesday. If there is it will be 'doctored'.

I appreciate others may see it differently but if I place and each-way bet I have to believe that there is a chance of landing the win element beyond just a hope that the favourite might just blunder his chance away. I like Smashing but would much rather have taken a shorter price in a Grand Annual.
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Is it a no bet race for you then KB ?

Donn McClean said in Leeds last night that if you are taking the odds on on UDS might be wise to see him get to post.

I think the hope for the rest is:

1. How will he handle prelims - the parade ring and shoot will be different than anything he has experienced before
2. How will he handle the track - not such a concern but they dont all take to the particular challenge

I am not that concerned about his jumping in general which is reliable enough.
 
kinloch brae said:
I don't think there is much chance of quick ground on Tuesday. If there is it will be 'doctored'.

I appreciate others may see it differently but if I place and each-way bet I have to believe that there is a chance of landing the win element beyond just a hope that the favourite might just blunder his chance away. I like Smashing but would much rather have taken a shorter price in a Grand Annual.
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Interesting point about backing each-way. For me it is price dependant, anything under/around the 10/1 mark I will only back each-way if I bellieve there is a chance of landing the win and the place part looks pretty solid. Anything around 20/1 or bigger I will back each-way even if I don't see it winning. A good example would be the Arkle where some of the contenders will be out to beat UDC which might effect their overall performance leaving the door open for one ridden more conservatively to get in the places.
 
Old Vic said:
Is it a no bet race for you then KB ?

Donn McClean said in Leeds last night that if you are taking the odds on on UDS might be wise to see him get to post.

I think the hope for the rest is:

1. How will he handle prelims - the parade ring and shoot will be different than anything he has experienced before
2. How will he handle the track - not such a concern but they dont all take to the particular challenge

I am not that concerned about his jumping in general which is reliable enough.
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Yes, I did give a brief thought to Vibrato Valtat or Smashing but couldn't see a reason why either would beat the favourite. Unfortunately, I had earlier backed Vautour who I don't see winning the JLT either.

In general I would always try and avoid relatively short priced favourites at the Festival so happy on this occasion just to enjoy the thrill and chalk this down as a small losing race. Is that statistic about Walsh not riding a chase winner for several years still doing the rounds?

I think I had 14/1 (many no doubt had bigger) about Un De Sceaux for last year's Champion Hurdle and still see that as a massive opportunity wasted. How easily things could have been different and we could have been looking forward to Un De Sceaux v Faugheen.
 
kinloch brae said:
I don't think there is much chance of quick ground on Tuesday. If there is it will be 'doctored'.

I appreciate others may see it differently but if I place and each-way bet I have to believe that there is a chance of landing the win element beyond just a hope that the favourite might just blunder his chance away. I like Smashing but would much rather have taken a shorter price in a Grand Annual.
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One more quick point on the betting angle, this is the Cheltenham festival, I have a bet in every race, including those that elsewhere I wouldn't touch with a barge pole. It's just not the same as any other time, if you don't get immersed then you're not making the most of it, this time next week it will be over for another year and a week tomorrow I'll be pricing up one or two for 2016.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
One more quick point on the betting angle, this is the Cheltenham festival, I have a bet in every race, including those that elsewhere I wouldn't touch with a barge pole. It's just not the same as any other time, if you don't get immersed then you're not making the most of it, this time next week it will be over for another year and a week tomorrow I'll be pricing up one or two for 2016.
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:encouragement: There are always forecasts and tricasts.
 
Ferguson said: "Three Kingdoms won his first two novice chases before finishing second to Vibrato Valtat at Kempton. He has won a Grade Two race since then and is entitled to take his chance in the Arkle.

"Although he has won on soft, the quicker the ground the more effective he will be and hopefully he can give a good account of himself."
 
Yeehaa said:
:encouragement: There are always forecasts and tricasts.
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Absolutely right Yeehaa, I will use those where they offer reasonable chances, as I said I will be having some kind of financial interest in every race, as always, though it doesn't affect my enjoyment of each race it's a nice bonus when they come in.
 
Timeform

Un de Sceaux is an even shorter price for the Arkle Chase, but time analysis suggests that is more justified. His win in a three-runner race at Leopardstown last time was in an amazingly good time– some 78 lb quicker than the success of a 108-rated handicapper on the same card– and sectional analysis confirms that both races were well-run. Un de Sceaux is short of experience over larger obstacles, but emphatically not of raw ability.
 
If it doesn't rain heavily Court Minstrel could be a place play. Totally ground dependant but was spectacular earlier in the season. Second highest rated of these over hurdles.
 
I see Clarcam is still in the Gand Annual, do we reckon that's just in case of an early fall tomoz?
 
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