2015/16 NH trainers title - could Willie win it ?

[mayo]

A notable increase in the Mullins runners at Sandown today.

Nicholls not firing etc.

Anyone offering odds on this ?

 

[Istabraq]

A notable increase in the Mullins runners at Sandown today.

Nicholls not firing etc.

Anyone offering odds on this ?

Bet 365 8/1
Billy Hills 7/1

Could it happen ?
I guess it could but he'd need to win the National and pick up a few other decent pots pre and post Cheltenham.

I've often wondered why Mullins doesn't have a duel presence on both sides of the Irish sea, there are logistical issues in splitting your army but with a fleet his size I'm sure there's a benefit....

 

[Morning Glory]

He will have to get over 2 million to even have a shout. Wont win it Unless as istabraq says ge lands the national. Strike rate in uk on the rise. There was chat about uk sattellite yard a while back.

Mullins

WINS RUNS % 2NDS 3RDS 4THS WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE £1 STAKE
2015-16 5 27 19% 4 2 4 £154,658 £274,459 -18.80
2014-15 16 91 18% 8 13 8 £889,987 £1,385,931 -12.58
2013-14 11 68 16% 8 8 8 £452,543 £855,396 -29.09
2012-13 6 51 12% 4 5 3 £444,746 £688,531 -5.90
2011-12 5 52 10% 3 4 4 £149,967 £327,673 -15.4

Nicholls
WINS RUNS % 2NDS 3RDS 4THS WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE £1 STAKE
2015-16 58 275 21% 52 39 22 £653,156 £1,080,416 -71.17
2014-15 124 518 24% 89 80 46 £2,383,883 £3,246,894 +58.40
2013-14 118 587 20% 107 70 59 £1,383,758 £2,469,893 -134.22
2012-13 131 565 23% 107 72 53 £1,553,145 £2,375,585 -102.6

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

How much are the 4 championship races at the fez worth, if the yard won all 4, which must be a possibility, it would set them on the way, then throw in the Arkle, Ryanair and the novice hurdles. If close enough it could prompt them to target more races at Aintree and Sandown etc for the big Spring races, does Don Poli have a National entry

 

[Old Vic]

The 4 championshios races worth about 1,2m

He should be at keast 8/1 to win those.

 

[mayo]

Bet 365 8/1
Billy Hills 7/1

Could it happen ?
I guess it could but he'd need to win the National and pick up a few other decent pots pre and post Cheltenham.

I've often wondered why Mullins doesn't have a duel presence on both sides of the Irish sea, there are logistical issues in splitting your army but with a fleet his size I'm sure there's a benefit....

Thanks Ista. I was hoping for a bit more.

 

[Morning Glory]

Billys 7/2 Coral 4/1


WILLIE MULLINS, who set a Cheltenham Festival record with eight winners last year, on Tuesday said another successful raid on jump racing's showpiece meeting in March could put him in the picture for a first British trainers' championship.

Mullins has sent out five winners and several placed horses in Britain for prize-money of £274,459 this season, which leaves him almost £806,000 behind championship leader Paul Nicholls, but with more than £3.9 million on offer at Cheltenham the race is far from over.

Ireland's champion trainer said: "I have thought about the British trainers' championship and it would be nice to win it one day but it certainly isn't something we've ever set out to do.

"I think you need to be up and running early in the season to be a serious contender for the title and that's not the way we operate. It's usually into November before our horses begin to come to themselves."

Cheltenham Festival the priority

However, he added: "If we had another successful festival then it might put us in touch and give us a shot at the championship. We'll just have to wait to see what happens and concentrate on getting our horses to Cheltenham in the best possible form. That's the priority.

"We can only hope we'll have a successful festival like we've had in the past. And even if we did then whoever trains the Crabbie's Grand National winner could also have a big say in who wins the title.

"You have to think positively and it would be a good year to win the National for the second time, wouldn't it?"

Mullins has enjoyed two Grade 1 victories in Britain this season with Faugheen's win in the williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle at Kempton being followed by Yorkhill's success in the Tolworth Novices' Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday.

However, the biggest contributor to the trainer's prize-money haul in Britain has been Vautour, whose win in the Stella Artois 1965 Chase at Ascot and narrow defeat by Cue Card in the King George VI Chase earned a total of £83,610.

'A serious contender'

Mullins said: "The trainers' championship isn't the reason we've made regular trips to Britain with horses this season. Far from it. We've a big team of horses and we try as much as possible to split up the better ones and divide our forces by finding suitable races for them at home and across the Irish Sea."

William Hill are shortest about Mullins winning the British trainers' title at 7-2 and spokesman Jon Ivan-Duke said: "The sheer ammunition Willie Mullins has to fire at the Cheltenham Festival means he is a serious contender for the trainers' title.

"It is entirely possible he could win half the races at the Cheltenham Festival and if that is the case then he could overhaul Nicholls."
Simon Clare of Coral, who are 4-1, added: "We wouldn't so much fear losing a fortune on Mullins in the trainers' championship, but if he does win it he's likely to have plenty of winners, and cost us plenty of money, along the way. We so nearly saw on the first day of the festival last year what damage the Mullins multiples can do."

 

[Istabraq]

Having chocked on my tea but now recovered I've just heard on ATR that Hills are calling Mullins 13/8 for this, Nichols 4/7, Hendo 10s.
If I still had a Hills account I'b phoning them and asking if they're offering the reverse price, if they were to quote 1/2 Mullins doesn't win this it would be one of the best bets of all time.
The key to this is the National, if Mullins wins that he could well win the championship but is he a 13/8 shot to win the National ?
If he doesn't win the National he surely has little chance ?

 

[mayo]

Is the Nicholls 4/7 not more or less the reverse price ?

Although reading his plans today hard to get excited about his stable.

 

[Istabraq]

To a degree Mayo yes, but the National has such a big say in this with its' £600k (ish) winners pot that it could still go to Hendo, think I'd rather take 2s on and have a few running for me that 4/7 on one yard...

 

[Old Vic]

It has been a strange season and Hendo and Nicholls have plenty to do to turn it into a good one for their yards.

Nicholls top horses last year were

HORSE OWNER RPR WINS RUNS WINNINGS EARNINGS £1 STAKE
Dodging Bullets Martin Broughton & Friends 173 3 4 £355,088 £362,578 +16.00
Silviniaco Conti Chris Giles & Potensis Bloodstock Ltd 175 3 5 £311,343 £314,023 +4.96
Saphir Du Rheu The Stewart Family 168 3 6 £97,475 £161,585 +2.42
Caid Du Berlais Donlon, Doyle, MacDonald & C Barber 153 1 5 £91,120 £96,470 +6.00
Just A Par Paul K Barber & C G Roach 149 1 7 £85,425 £92,798 +8.00
Vibrato Valtat Axom XLIII 164 4 10 £73,323 £122,051 +5.45
Virak Hills Of Ledbury (Aga) 156 4 6 £64,818 £77,913 +4.60
Mr Mole John P McManus 168 3 5 £61,090 £74,465 +5.00
All Yours Potensis Bloodstock Limited 139 2 5 £59,844 £68,265 +14.10
Rocky Creek The Johnson & Stewart Families 168 1 4 £56,950 £56,950 +5.00
Rebel Rebellion Woodhouse, Sutton & Dobson 160 2 9 £56,452 £66,402 +12.00
Irving Axom XLIX 157 1 5 £56,270 £69,092 -2.50
Sam Winner Mrs Angela Yeoman 166 2 4 £54,902 £54,902 +8.50
Sound Investment Owners Group 001 160 2 5 £53,499 £70,019 +8.00
Silsol Michelle And Dan MacDonald 158 2 4 £50,774 £62,372 +20.00


The top two are putting a £600K hole in his winnings right now ..this year the only horses winning more than 20K so far are

HORSE OWNER RPR WINS RUNS WINNINGS EARNINGS £1 STAKE
Old Guard The Brooks, Kyle & Stewart Families 160 3 4 £137,241 £142,571 +26.00
Irving Axom XLIX 161 2 3 £96,070 £97,573 +4.41
Vibrato Valtat Axom XLIII 164 1 3 £35,594 £60,204 +0.50
Sound Investment Owners Group 001 166 1 4 £33,762 £53,562 +4.00
Adrien Du Pont Mrs Johnny de la Hey 136 2 3 £32,374 £36,185 +0.82
Le Mercurey Colm Donlon & Chris Giles 153 2 3 £25,458 £28,882 +1.80
Vicente Ian Fogg & John Hales 158 3 5 £22,911 £25,875 +14.42
Silsol Michelle And Dan MacDonald 154 2 4 £22,743 £27,209 +2.25
Art Mauresque Mrs Johnny de la Hey 154 2 5 £19,126 £24,111 +3.10
Dormello Mo The Kyle & Stewart Families 150 3 8 £16,895 £26,254 -1.83
Mon Successeur Mr And Mrs J D Cotton 142 1 6 £16,245 £24,898 +1.00
Saphir Du Rheu The Stewart Family 164 1 3 £15,661 £23,701 -1.80

 

[Morning Glory]

Evens now


WILLIE MULLINS is now contesting favouritism with Paul Nicholls, and is no bigger than even-money, for the British trainers' championship after a near £100,000 haul at Ascot saw him advance his claims and strengthen his already vice-like grip on the Cheltenham Festival.

Can Mullins become champion trainer in Britain?

Mullins is odds-on with three firms, who go 10-11 each the two, while Betfred, Sky Bet and Coral keep Nicholls at that price but offer even-money about Ireland's perennial champion trainer also landing the British equivalent this season.

Wins for Vroum Vroum Mag and Un De Sceaux netted Mullins £99,662.50 and took him up to 17th in the championship table, which is measured on prize-money, with a total of £411,030, which has been amassed from nine winners and 32 runners so far this season.

Nicholls, whose only winner on Saturday came courtesy of Mr Mix in a novice hurdle at Taunton - for which he pocketed £4,548.60, still tops the table on £1,164,36, some £753,330 ahead of Mullins.

Dominant position

A repeat of last year's record eight winners at the Cheltenham Festival would put Mullins in an incredibly strong position going into the final weeks of the season and, with the Closutton handler stabling the favourite for 11 of the 28 races at the Cheltenham Festival, that is a distinct possibility.

William Hill go 11-8 about him having seven to nine winners inclusive at the four-day meeting, while ten or more is a 7-4 shot and six or fewer is 2-1.

In what looks a two-horse race for the title Nicky Henderson comes next at 18-1, while Philip Hobbs, who broke through the £1m barrier on Saturday, is a top-priced 33-1 chance for the title.

Cheltenham Festival favourites
Willie Mullins must be rubbing his hands together with glee at the prospect of the Cheltenham Festival. As the bold runners show, he has an enviable stable of favourites. Trainers' title leader Paul Nicholls (italics) has considerably fewer fancied runners.

RACE	FAVOURITE	BEST PRICE
Supreme	Min	13-8
Arkle	Douvan	4-6
Ultima Handicap Chase	Minella Foru	14-1
Champion Hurdle	Faugheen	8-13
Mares' Hurdle	Annie Power	4-5
National Hunt Chase	Black Hercules	4-1
Novice Handicap Chase	Doctor Harper	16-1
Neptune	Bellshill	7-2
RSA Chase	No More Heroes	3-1
Coral Cup	Politologue	14-1
Champion Chase	Un De Sceaux	Evens
Cross Country	Josies Orders	3-1
Fred Winter	Connetable	20-1
Champion Bumper	Aspen Colorado	12-1
JLT	Killultagh Vic	7-2
Pertemps	Missed Approach	12-1
Ryanair	Vautour	2-1
World Hurdle	Thistlecrack	11-4
Brown Advisory Plate	Village Vic	14-1
Kim Muir	Ballykan	16-1
Mares' Novice Hurdle	Limini	3-1
Triumph Hurdle	Ivanovich Gorbatov	3-1
County Hurdle	Blue Hell	12-1
Albert Bartlett	Barters Hill	5-1
Gold Cup	Djakadam	4-1
Foxhunter	On The Fringe	9-2
Martin Pipe	Diamond King	10-1
Grand Annual	Minella Present	14-1

<tbody>
</tbody>

Willie Mullins-trained favourites in bold
Paul Nicholls-trained favourites in italics

 

[mayo]

Champion Hurdle has a 400K prize fund so that is half of deficit gone.

 

[Old Vic]

Mullins has 23 festival contenders trading at single-figure prices in the ante-post markets for the 28 races, Nicholls, in a comparison that will raise plenty of eyebrows, has none

Mullins’ five festival shortest

Faugheen 2-5
Douvan 4-7
Annie Power 4-5
Un De Sceaux 4-5
Min 13-8

Nicholls’ five festival shortest

Dodging Bullets 10-1
Sire Collonges 10-1
Politologue 14-1
Vicente 16-1
Modus 16-1

 

[Old Vic]

Bet 365 8/1
Billy Hills 7/1

Could it happen ?
I guess it could but he'd need to win the National and pick up a few other decent pots pre and post Cheltenham.

I've often wondered why Mullins doesn't have a duel presence on both sides of the Irish sea, there are logistical issues in splitting your army but with a fleet his size I'm sure there's a benefit....

I thought those prices were skinny at the time but now 4/11. Vautour will put him in front today but Nicholls will keep picking up prizemoney. Not a done deal yet imo.

AS THINGS STAND

Nicholls: £2,000,040 (best odds: 11-4)

Mullins: £1,975,574 (best odds: 4-11)

 

[Old Vic]

AS THINGS STAND

Mullins: £2,061,283 (best odds: 1-2)

Nicholls: £2,007,519 (best odds: 6-4)

but

But the shock fall of 1-5 favourite Vautour, in the JLT Melling Chase, meant he failed to pick up the £112,260 that seemed assured and Paddy Power reacted by pushing him out to 1-2 and cutting the reigning champion into 6-4.

 

[Grade1]

No winner for Nicholls over the 3 days at Aintree.

 

[Istabraq]

No winner for Nicholls over the 3 days at Aintree.

And only a few big pots left.
Swinton hurdle, Scottish National, couple of decent Cheltenham prices at their April meeting, one or two nice prizes at Perth and Whitbread day at Sandown, Nicholls probably has to win half of those....

 

[mayo]

And only a few big pots left.
Swinton hurdle, Scottish National, couple of decent Cheltenham prices at their April meeting, one or two nice prizes at Perth and Whitbread day at Sandown, Nicholls probably has to win half of those....

Yep. Swinton is too late ?

 

[Istabraq]

Yep. Swinton is too late ?

You're right, Whitbread Day is the final meet of the season