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2014 World Hurdle
- Thread starter Old Vic
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mayo
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AP in telegraph
Finally, a word about Big Buck’s. I thought he ran a blinder at Cheltenham last Saturday. Paul Nicholls knows what he is doing, and if he is pleased, that is good enough for me. The old staying champion can never be underestimated. My horse, At Fishers Cross, felt more like his old self, and is another who will be more comfortable on better ground. I am going to have a tough time deciding between him and More Of That in the World Hurdle.
Will they run both ?
Finally, a word about Big Buck’s. I thought he ran a blinder at Cheltenham last Saturday. Paul Nicholls knows what he is doing, and if he is pleased, that is good enough for me. The old staying champion can never be underestimated. My horse, At Fishers Cross, felt more like his old self, and is another who will be more comfortable on better ground. I am going to have a tough time deciding between him and More Of That in the World Hurdle.
Will they run both ?
Walsh's view on the World Hurdle was that Big Buck's could go one of two ways after his Cleeve comeback: improve for the run or recoil from a hard race. He acknowledged that his former partner would need to be back to his absolute best to beat Annie Power, if she stays.
Although asserting that he'd be comfortable riding her in any Cheltenham race, Walsh seemed to favour the World Hurdle, emphasising "how strong she was from the back of the last to the line" when beating Zarkandar there on New Year's Day.
"I almost knocked over [Channel 4 Racing's] Alice Plunkett, galloping right up into the corner," he said. He admitted the horse had been "more on her toes" than previously at Doncaster last time and that therefore Cheltenham's pre-race parade would be a mental test to be passed, whichever Grade One she contests.
"Does she have the experience over two miles for a Champion Hurdle?" he asked, rhetorically. "Or do you want to expose her to taking on Big Buck's and At Fishers Cross over three miles and maybe emptying her out? Thankfully, I don't have to make that decision."
Walsh would clearly like to simplify his Cheltenham choices by keeping his key mounts apart but Rich Ricci, husband of Annie Power's owner Susannah, stressed on At The Races that he had full trust in Mullins's team picking the right race for his horses.
Perhaps significantly, Walsh stressed how impressed he'd been by At Fishers Cross as a novice last season and argued that his best round of jumping had coincided with the best ground he'd encountered, at Aintree.
Although asserting that he'd be comfortable riding her in any Cheltenham race, Walsh seemed to favour the World Hurdle, emphasising "how strong she was from the back of the last to the line" when beating Zarkandar there on New Year's Day.
"I almost knocked over [Channel 4 Racing's] Alice Plunkett, galloping right up into the corner," he said. He admitted the horse had been "more on her toes" than previously at Doncaster last time and that therefore Cheltenham's pre-race parade would be a mental test to be passed, whichever Grade One she contests.
"Does she have the experience over two miles for a Champion Hurdle?" he asked, rhetorically. "Or do you want to expose her to taking on Big Buck's and At Fishers Cross over three miles and maybe emptying her out? Thankfully, I don't have to make that decision."
Walsh would clearly like to simplify his Cheltenham choices by keeping his key mounts apart but Rich Ricci, husband of Annie Power's owner Susannah, stressed on At The Races that he had full trust in Mullins's team picking the right race for his horses.
Perhaps significantly, Walsh stressed how impressed he'd been by At Fishers Cross as a novice last season and argued that his best round of jumping had coincided with the best ground he'd encountered, at Aintree.
As OV mentioned it seems Annie Power will run here.Some bookies have shortened her to jt jolly with bb for this while pushing her out for the champion.The price seems to take for granted that she will stay , But will she? hmm
I'm hoping AFC wins it and we know he'll stay, but he does make me hold my breath and think nice thoughts every time i see him approaching a hurdle.
I'm hoping AFC wins it and we know he'll stay, but he does make me hold my breath and think nice thoughts every time i see him approaching a hurdle.
It is very hard to have a strong view on this race.
Big Bucks has age and the bounce factor to overcome.
Annie Power has the shorter option and as Donka has said not proved to stay.8/10 had run at festival before.
AFC has festival form but wants cut which he will probably get but AP is not certain to ride and his jumping is just weird.
Zarkandar is the new Oscar Whisky IMO but what do I know might be the new Solwhit
More of That and Salubrious and even Monksland unexposed
Celestial Halo and Reve De Sivola capable of mixing with all of these and graded winners this season
And I may not even have mentioned the winner
Big Bucks has age and the bounce factor to overcome.
Annie Power has the shorter option and as Donka has said not proved to stay.8/10 had run at festival before.
AFC has festival form but wants cut which he will probably get but AP is not certain to ride and his jumping is just weird.
Zarkandar is the new Oscar Whisky IMO but what do I know might be the new Solwhit
More of That and Salubrious and even Monksland unexposed
Celestial Halo and Reve De Sivola capable of mixing with all of these and graded winners this season
And I may not even have mentioned the winner
If she is going to World Hurdle does this mean UDS definitely goes to Champion. No pacemaker needed for TNO
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Morning MG
my sleep always gets disrupted in month before Cheltenham. Dreaming about horses and Jonjo plots.
I am coming around to Big Bucks but think they will take him on that morning so leaving it until then. If Annie doesnt go here will Ruby even have a ride in it ?
my sleep always gets disrupted in month before Cheltenham. Dreaming about horses and Jonjo plots.I am coming around to Big Bucks but think they will take him on that morning so leaving it until then. If Annie doesnt go here will Ruby even have a ride in it ?
ok thanks keep us posted on here then mate last season holywell popped up at 25/1 in the pertemps! i did fancy it as an RSA horse this year but he just lacks the class to compete i think
AP
Looking back to the end of last month and I thought Big Buck’s ran very well on very testing ground on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham in the galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle. He maybe did not run up to the form he showed on his last run but he had been off for 15 months and can only improve for the outing. You have to believe what Paul Nicholls says in that he will be a better horse in March. Paul has brought back the likes of Denman and Kauto Star and countless others and when he says they are going to improve then they usually do – Silviniaco Conti was a prime example at Haydock. Paul said he would be a much better horse in the King George than the Betfair Chase, and he was.
Big Buck’s is still the horse they have to beat in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle. He will need to perform better than he did on his comeback and Paul says that he will. At Fishers Cross finished in front of Big Buck’s in the Cleeve and he certainly jumped and travelled better than he had been doing earlier in the season. He felt much more like his old self and I think that if the ground starts to dry up then that will suit him too. I know everyone thinks he likes soft ground but I think he likes a bit of better ground and he is definitely a contender. JP McManus also has More Of That in the race and I am not sure if he will have another run before or not, I’ll leave that to Jonjo O’Neill and the team.
Looking back to the end of last month and I thought Big Buck’s ran very well on very testing ground on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham in the galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle. He maybe did not run up to the form he showed on his last run but he had been off for 15 months and can only improve for the outing. You have to believe what Paul Nicholls says in that he will be a better horse in March. Paul has brought back the likes of Denman and Kauto Star and countless others and when he says they are going to improve then they usually do – Silviniaco Conti was a prime example at Haydock. Paul said he would be a much better horse in the King George than the Betfair Chase, and he was.
Big Buck’s is still the horse they have to beat in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle. He will need to perform better than he did on his comeback and Paul says that he will. At Fishers Cross finished in front of Big Buck’s in the Cleeve and he certainly jumped and travelled better than he had been doing earlier in the season. He felt much more like his old self and I think that if the ground starts to dry up then that will suit him too. I know everyone thinks he likes soft ground but I think he likes a bit of better ground and he is definitely a contender. JP McManus also has More Of That in the race and I am not sure if he will have another run before or not, I’ll leave that to Jonjo O’Neill and the team.
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Celestial Halo
Everyone knows Halo, he's 10 years old now and won a Triumph, was second in last year's World Hurdle the first time we tried him over three and won over that distance first time out this season when beating At Fishers Cross and Reve De Sivola at Newbury. He was going to run in the Long Walk but got an infection in his front foot, but he's well over that now. I just think he needs a run before the World Hurdle and he'll run at Haydock over three this weekend. Whatever he does on Saturday he'll improve for the run. He needs a tough race on Saturday to get him back to his very best for the World Hurdle.
Everyone knows Halo, he's 10 years old now and won a Triumph, was second in last year's World Hurdle the first time we tried him over three and won over that distance first time out this season when beating At Fishers Cross and Reve De Sivola at Newbury. He was going to run in the Long Walk but got an infection in his front foot, but he's well over that now. I just think he needs a run before the World Hurdle and he'll run at Haydock over three this weekend. Whatever he does on Saturday he'll improve for the run. He needs a tough race on Saturday to get him back to his very best for the World Hurdle.
The Ladbrokes World Hurdle (formerly the Stayers’ Hurdle) is the highlight of the third day of the Cheltenham Festival. Won by some absolutely fantastic horses since 2000, including Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s, who unfortunately missed his chance at fifth straight success last year due to injury. Last year’s winner, Solwhit, will miss the Festival this year.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-8
6yo: 3-7-30
7yo: 2-3-34
8yo: 2-1-30
9yo: 3-4-22
10yo: 0-2-8
11yo+: 0-0-6
10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9
No horse aged 5 has ever won it, though 3 of last 8 have made the places.
Prior to Solwhit’s win last year (aged 9), the previous four horses aged 9+ to have won it were all previous winners.
Breeding
French Bred: 6-11-50
British Bred: 4-1-23
Irish Bred: 0-8-57
Other: 0-0-8
French & British bred horses have won last 10 and only represented 53.2% of total runners.
Irish-bred horses have a very poor record in this, failing to win any of the last 10 despite having represented 41.3% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of at least 164+ last time (2 exceptions posted RPR's of 150+)
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days (2 exceptions had won the previous year's race)
10 of 10 winners had run at least 8 times over hurdles
7 of 10 winners had won over course and distance (1 other was having first course start)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions, Inglis Drever & Solwhit, had won a grade 1 or 2 over 2M 4F and were having first try at 3M+)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (other 2 had finished 2nd in a grade 1)
9 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle that season (exception had only 1 run, in a handicap hurdle, that season & had won a grade 1 on penultimate start)
6 of 10 winners had previously finished in the first 2 at the Festival
Other Races
Defending World Hurdle winner: 21111 (4-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from previous year to return: 2252141113 (4-4-10)
Long Distance Hurdle winner (Celestial Halo): 2211111 (5-2-7)
Long Walk Hurdle winner (Reve De Sivola): 2212021114 (4-4-9)
Cleeve Hurdle winner: 343117214 (3-3-9)
Rendlesham Hurdle winner: 16P8244 (1-1-7)
Limestone Lad Hurdle winner (Rule The World: 5P1 (1-0-3)
Sefton Novice Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): 1F70 (1-0-4)
Rewards4Racing Handicap Hurdle winner (Return Spring): 5010 (1-0-4)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): P332 (0-3-4)
Boyne Hurdle winner: 2P230 (0-3-5)
Relkeel Hurdle winner (More Of That): 33F5P (0-2-5)
Lismullen Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 2 (0-1-1)
Galmoy Hurdle winner (): P6035 (0-1-5)
Punchestown World Hurdle winner (Quevega): 58 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Classic Novice Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): 99 (0-0-2)
Aintree Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 5P (0-0-2)
Follow Punchestown on Facebook Hurdle winner (Boston Bob): P5 (0-0-2)
Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 4P5 (0-0-3)
Albert Bartlett Nov Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): F96 (0-0-3)
Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle winner (Return Spring): 0994 (0-0-4)
Ascot Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 005P (0-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in previous World Hurdle, finishing 21111
5 of 10 winners ran in the Long Distance Hurdle, finishing 11111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Long Walk Hurdle, finishing 1111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 2111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 3111
2 of 10 winners ran in Mersey Novice Hurdle, finishing 42
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-1-9) has won 4 renewals between 2009 & 2012 with Big Buck’s and saddled Celestial Halo to finish runner-up last year.
Alan King (1-4-11) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-11) are the only other 2 trainers with an entry to have won the race since 2004.
Henry Daly (0-2-3) saddled Mighty Man to get placed twice.
Willie Mullins (0-2-15) has just 2 places from 15 runners in last 10 renewals.
Irish trained runners (1-7-38) won the race last year for first time since 1995. Before Solwhit won this in 2013, the previous 4 Irish based winners had their prep run in the Boyne Hurdle but in recent years the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, the Hatton’s Grace and the Galmoy Hurdle have produced Ireland’s main prospects for this.
Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner of this race since 2000 has been 17/2.
Favourite (4-3-10) has only won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.05.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8 (or a previous winner of the World Hurdle)
- French or British bred
- Previously run at least 8 times over hurdles
- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler (or a previous winner)
- Run 1 to 4 times this season, finishing in first 2 on all runs
- Achieved RPR of 164+ on last start
- Won over 3M+
- Course and distance winner
- Won a graded hurdle this season
- Previously finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle (ideally won)
- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race
- Finished in first 2 in Cleeve, Long Distance and/or Long Walk Hurdle
- Finished in first 4 in Liverpool or Mersey Novice Hurdle at 2013 Aintree Festival
- Trained in Britain (ideally by Paul Nicholls)
- From first 4 in the betting
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1390181820#sthash.idauuCTH.dpuf
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-8
6yo: 3-7-30
7yo: 2-3-34
8yo: 2-1-30
9yo: 3-4-22
10yo: 0-2-8
11yo+: 0-0-6
10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9
No horse aged 5 has ever won it, though 3 of last 8 have made the places.
Prior to Solwhit’s win last year (aged 9), the previous four horses aged 9+ to have won it were all previous winners.
Breeding
French Bred: 6-11-50
British Bred: 4-1-23
Irish Bred: 0-8-57
Other: 0-0-8
French & British bred horses have won last 10 and only represented 53.2% of total runners.
Irish-bred horses have a very poor record in this, failing to win any of the last 10 despite having represented 41.3% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of at least 164+ last time (2 exceptions posted RPR's of 150+)
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days (2 exceptions had won the previous year's race)
10 of 10 winners had run at least 8 times over hurdles
7 of 10 winners had won over course and distance (1 other was having first course start)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions, Inglis Drever & Solwhit, had won a grade 1 or 2 over 2M 4F and were having first try at 3M+)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (other 2 had finished 2nd in a grade 1)
9 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle that season (exception had only 1 run, in a handicap hurdle, that season & had won a grade 1 on penultimate start)
6 of 10 winners had previously finished in the first 2 at the Festival
Other Races
Defending World Hurdle winner: 21111 (4-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from previous year to return: 2252141113 (4-4-10)
Long Distance Hurdle winner (Celestial Halo): 2211111 (5-2-7)
Long Walk Hurdle winner (Reve De Sivola): 2212021114 (4-4-9)
Cleeve Hurdle winner: 343117214 (3-3-9)
Rendlesham Hurdle winner: 16P8244 (1-1-7)
Limestone Lad Hurdle winner (Rule The World: 5P1 (1-0-3)
Sefton Novice Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): 1F70 (1-0-4)
Rewards4Racing Handicap Hurdle winner (Return Spring): 5010 (1-0-4)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): P332 (0-3-4)
Boyne Hurdle winner: 2P230 (0-3-5)
Relkeel Hurdle winner (More Of That): 33F5P (0-2-5)
Lismullen Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 2 (0-1-1)
Galmoy Hurdle winner (): P6035 (0-1-5)
Punchestown World Hurdle winner (Quevega): 58 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Classic Novice Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): 99 (0-0-2)
Aintree Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 5P (0-0-2)
Follow Punchestown on Facebook Hurdle winner (Boston Bob): P5 (0-0-2)
Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 4P5 (0-0-3)
Albert Bartlett Nov Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): F96 (0-0-3)
Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle winner (Return Spring): 0994 (0-0-4)
Ascot Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 005P (0-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in previous World Hurdle, finishing 21111
5 of 10 winners ran in the Long Distance Hurdle, finishing 11111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Long Walk Hurdle, finishing 1111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 2111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 3111
2 of 10 winners ran in Mersey Novice Hurdle, finishing 42
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-1-9) has won 4 renewals between 2009 & 2012 with Big Buck’s and saddled Celestial Halo to finish runner-up last year.
Alan King (1-4-11) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-11) are the only other 2 trainers with an entry to have won the race since 2004.
Henry Daly (0-2-3) saddled Mighty Man to get placed twice.
Willie Mullins (0-2-15) has just 2 places from 15 runners in last 10 renewals.
Irish trained runners (1-7-38) won the race last year for first time since 1995. Before Solwhit won this in 2013, the previous 4 Irish based winners had their prep run in the Boyne Hurdle but in recent years the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, the Hatton’s Grace and the Galmoy Hurdle have produced Ireland’s main prospects for this.
Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner of this race since 2000 has been 17/2.
Favourite (4-3-10) has only won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.05.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8 (or a previous winner of the World Hurdle)
- French or British bred
- Previously run at least 8 times over hurdles
- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler (or a previous winner)
- Run 1 to 4 times this season, finishing in first 2 on all runs
- Achieved RPR of 164+ on last start
- Won over 3M+
- Course and distance winner
- Won a graded hurdle this season
- Previously finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle (ideally won)
- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race
- Finished in first 2 in Cleeve, Long Distance and/or Long Walk Hurdle
- Finished in first 4 in Liverpool or Mersey Novice Hurdle at 2013 Aintree Festival
- Trained in Britain (ideally by Paul Nicholls)
- From first 4 in the betting
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1390181820#sthash.idauuCTH.dpuf
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That wobble appears to have abated.
Wouldn't put anyone of More of that though. Solid form and possibly paciest horse in the race.
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Owner Barry Connell has confirmed Mount Benbulben will be supplemented for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival.”
Alan King states Medinas will go for World Hurdle and not Coral Cup
Alan King states Medinas will go for World Hurdle and not Coral Cup
Last edited:
skippymac6
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Interesting that Mount Benbulban goes over there. He was well beaten in the Albert Bartlett a couple of years ago.
Still holding out some hope that Monksland might make it but not so sure
Still holding out some hope that Monksland might make it but not so sure