2014 Triumph Hurdle

[skippymac6]

Interesting to see if Ivan Grozny can confirm placings with Plinth this Sunday in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle (provided they both turn up). Mullins has a few other enteries like Abyssial and also Guitar Pete entered who won at Christmas after Anafilet pulled up.

 

[Old Vic]

Lydia tipped plinth on sporting life.

 

[Morning Glory]

I have backed Plinth.

 

[mayo]

Calipto

"I didn't really want to run him on this ground, but if we wanted to go to Cheltenham today was really the last chance for him as this gives me a month to fine-tune him," Nicholls told Racing UK.

"I think a faster-run race will help him, although he doesn't have the experience of some of the horses that I have sent there before as he is a real jumping-bred horse, rather than an ex-Flat horse.

"It will be hard for him in the Triumph, but it is the obvious race for him - he might go to Auteuil after that."

Sky Bet spokesman Michael Shinners commented: "Calipto did everything that could have been asked of him and looks a leading candidate for the Triumph Hurdle. If the ground comes up soft at the Festival, that clearly won't trouble him either."

 

[mayo]

I have backed Plinth.

Tipped up by Donn
The other Grade One event is the juvenile hurdle and in his current, or should that be usual form, Willie Mullins looks pretty hard to oppose again. He runs Ivan Grozny who was placed in Group company on the Flat in France before joining his present trainer.

To date, he has run twice over hurdles. On his debut over timber he was beaten by another of Sunday's rivals, Plinth, but he stepped up on his second run to win impressively at Naas last time.

Plinth is an interesting one. Memories of the great Istabraq are conjured up when talking about this horse. Like him, he is trained by Aidan O'Brien and owned by JP McManus and he will be the master of Ballydoyle's first runner in Grade One company over hurdles since his three time Champion Hurdle winner pulled up at the 2002 Festival (it should have been four Champion Hurdles, but he was denied the opportunity when foot and mouth claimed the meeting in 2001). Enough reminiscing!

Sky Bet have Ivan Grozny at 8s for the Triumph at the moment and O'Brien's horse is 12/1 and that gap could be narrowed if Plinth wins this.

So, enjoy what promises to be a superb weekend of racing and if I were to advise you to get involved in any of the antepost markets, it would be to back Plinth for the Triumph as he won't be 12/1 if he wins on Sunday.

 

[mayo]

Guitar Pete burst two bubbles there. Royal Irish Hussar beat him well at Cheltenham but was pit in his place by Broughton and Fox Norton in Donny. Think English better than Irish and Le Rocher the one to beat.

 

[johnno]

Le Rocher is a great bet at 8/1. If he was in a different yard he'd be half that price.

 

[johnno]

Guitar Pete burst two bubbles there. Royal Irish Hussar beat him well at Cheltenham but was pit in his place by Broughton and Fox Norton in Donny. Think English better than Irish and Le Rocher the one to beat.

Wonder if there was anything a miss with Royal Irish Hussar last time - if you can forgive that run the rest of his form looks good.

 

[Old Vic]

Wonder if there was anything a miss with Royal Irish Hussar last time - if you can forgive that run the rest of his form looks good.

Timeform boys thinking the same way
When betting ante-post on the Triumph Hurdle there is always the fear of a smart horse lurking in the wings, ready to be unleashed in the Adonis Hurdle like Soldatino and Zarkandar were in recent years. There could, however, be some value in siding with Royal Irish Hussar who produced a useful level of form earlier in the season and appears to have been forgotten about to an extent following one poor effort. Royal Irish Hussar leapt to the head of the ante-post market after producing an authoritative display here - albeit on the Old Course - at the Open meeting, beating subsequent Grade 2 winner Guitar Pete by a comfortable three and three quarter lengths. Royal Irish Hussar was strongly challenged on the run to the last, but he found plenty for pressure, always looking in control. He produced a laboured effort at Doncaster, beaten a long way at odds on, but that was his third run in quick succession and he is worth forgiving bearing in mind the positive qualities that he had shown at Cheltenham. A strongly-run contest with the emphasis on stamina looks bound to suit Royal Irish Hussar and he should be backed at 34, particularly as any concerns on the jumping front (not always fluent) are allayed by the scarcity of obstacles in the final half-mile.

 

[Old Vic]

Guitar Pete winning G1 at Leopardstown

 

[Sefton]

Baz

GUITAR PETE ATR Tracker put himself right into the Triumph Hurdle picture with a grand round of jumping in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday.

It was his hurdling that won the day for him, so accurate, and he has scope, too. Although he was rated low on the flat Dessie Hughes does a great job with horses like him and gets them schooling plenty and focused on the job.

I think he’ll appreciate Cheltenham and he has already been there when he was second to myself and Royal Irish Hussar in November but I think it’s reasonable to assume that Dessie’s horse has improved a bit because he won well at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.

At the moment I think the one they’ve all got to beat is Le Rocher

 

[mayo]

At the moment ? ....wonder if Henderson has something stowed away for the Adonis.

 

[mayo]

Donn

Tiger Roll ran a cracker to chase Guitar Pete home in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, but Dessie Hughes' horse stamped himself as Ireland's best juvenile hurdler in beating Gordon Elliott's horse and Plinth and Ivan Grozny. Guitar Pete is probably going to have to improve again if he is to win a Triumph Hurdle, but he is a really likeable sort who jumps superbly and who has a really willing attitude.

Rated just 58 on the flat, he is a different horse when you put eight flights of hurdles in front of him. He has now won four of his six races over hurdles and finished second in the other two. He has gained valuable experience of Cheltenham, he improved with every one of his previous five races, and there is every reason to expect that he can improve again for his sixth.

Interestingly, Guitar Pete is a Dessie Hughes-trained horse who was sent off as third favourite for the Spring Juvenile Hurdle before winning it, and who is far better over hurdles than he was on the flat.

Ring a bell?

Guitar Pete must be good thing to win a flat handicap at some stage

 

[Morning Glory]

Handicapper rates Calipto the equal of Le Rocher. Think I'd be trusting Nicholls before snick Williams to get his horse there right.

On the juvenile front, the Cheltenham prospects are bubbling up nicely. Broughton confirmed the promise shown at Doncaster when taking the listed John Smith’s Scottish Triumph Trial at Musselburgh, Harristown looks a likely contender for the Fred Winter after taking Huntingdon’s 32Red Hurdle (formerly the Chatteris Fen) and last but certainly not least, Calipto backed up Paul Nicholls’ assertion that he’s the yard’s best juvenile by impressively defying a 10lb penalty and is now rated 149. He is the joint top-rated British juvenile, alongside Le Rocher.

 

[Old Vic]

Calipto

Calipto

A really nice juvenile who won at Newbury on Saturday. It was an all-age hurdle and he did well to carry a 10lb penalty against older horses. He travels well, jumped brilliantly and won nicely. He's got loads of speed and the handicapper after Saturday gave him a mark of 149 which is extremely high for a juvenile and he's joint-highest-rated with Nick Williams' Le Rocher. I minded him a little bit after his first run and Saturday was one of the last opportunities I had to run him before Cheltenham. The only downside with the Triumph is it can be won by horses who have run on the Flat and they do have that experience, but if the ground stays as it is now that will be a benefit to him. If it was 'good' it might be a disadvantage but we'll see what we get and he'll go straight to the Triumph now.

 

[racecaller13]

TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

The JCB Triumph Hurdle kicks off the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. The race has changed slightly in recent years as the size of the field has decreased with the introduction of the Fred Winter handicap hurdle for 4yos. Nowadays the race is usually won by a horse prominent in the market that comes from one of the big British yards, though Countrywide Flame’s 33/1 success in 2012 was a notable exception.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

Race for 4yos



Gender

Fillies (0-1-9) have gained 1 place from 9 runners in past 10 runnings but haven’t won this since 2000.



Breeding

Irish bred: 4-10-75

British bred: 2-4-49

French bred: 2-4-52

USA bred: 1-1-9

Japan bred: 1-0-2

German bred: 0-1-8

8 of 10 winners were by a group 1-winning sire (1 exception’s sire hadn’t run in a group 1 and other was a group 2 winner, beaten a short head in Queen Anne)

6 runners out of a Kahyasi mare (2-2-6) to run in this finished: 3rd-8th-4th-3rd-1st-1st, the only one to finish outside top 4 was sent off at 100/1.



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners ran the past 18 to 45 days

8 of 10 winners won last time out

10 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or higher

8 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 7+ lengths

9 of 10 winners (last 9) won at least half their hurdle starts

8 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 132+ in one or both of last 2 runs

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles (exception won grade 2 Adonis on one hurdles run)

9 of 10 winners had run on the flat

7 of 7 winners that ran on flat in Britain or Ireland were officially rated 80 or higher

8 of 9 British-trained winners (last 8) had won a hurdle at Newbury, Kempton or Market Rasen

The 10 winners had collectively run in 31 hurdles races prior to winning this, they finished in first 3 in 29 of those 31 starts.



Other Races

Adonis Hurdle winner: 01F4119 (3-0-7)

Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Le Rocher): 03122836 (1-4-8)

Prestbury Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Royal Irish Hussar): 04212742 (1-3-8)

Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Ballyglashen): 08519492 (1-2-8)

Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 680790221 (1-2-9)

Betfred TV Juvenile Hurdle winner (Dawalan): 21 (1-1-2)

Betfred Fun And Friendly Juvenile Hurdle winner (Baradari): 13 (1-1-2)

Blackmore Building Juvenile Hurdle winner (Dawalan): P1079 (1-0-5)

Finale Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Le Rocher): 5227 (0-2-4)

Festival Hospitality On Sale 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Adriana Des Mottes): 83020 (0-2-5)

Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 3020468 (0-2-7)

Win Big With The totejackpot Juvenile Hurdle winner (Royal Irish Hussar): 200 (0-1-3)

Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle winner (Royal Irish Hussar): 5083 (0-1-4)

Scottish Triumph Hurdle winner (Broughton): P043 (0-1-4)

Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle winner: 0903P (0-1-5)

William Hill - iPhone, iPad, iPad Mini Juvenile Hurdle winner (Vincenzo Mio): B64 (0-0-3)

Movember Spitfire Ale Juvenile Hurdle winner (Kentucky Hyden): 8P07 (0-0-4)

Q Associates Juvenile Hurdle winner (Calipto): B5600P (0-0-6)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Adonis Hurdle last time, finishing 111

3 of 10 winners gained their first win over hurdles in a 2M 1/2F juvenile hurdle at Newbury

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Spring Juvenile Hurdle last time, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners ran in Wendsleydale Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 22

All 3 Irish-trained winners in past 20 years had finished first past post in Spring Juvenile on previous start



Trainers

British-trained runners: 9-14-133

Irish-trained runners: 1-6-55

French-trained runners: 0-0-7

The bigger British yards have fairly dominated this race with Alan King (2-4-14), Philip Hobbs (2-2-5), Paul Nicholls (2-2-14) & Nicky Henderson (2-1-10) each supplying 2 of the last 10 winners.

Dessie Hughes (1-0-2) & John Quinn (1-0-4) have trained past 2 winners.

Willie Mullins (0-1-10) trained the winner in 2002 but has only seen one of his 10 runners in past 10 years make the frame.



Price

Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle to the Festival in 2005 this race has been won by one of the first 4 in the betting 8 of 9 years.

Favourites (1-4-10) have only won 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.


Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Sired by a group 1 winner (ideally out of a Kahyasi mare)

- Posted an RPR of 132+ last time out

- Won last time out in the past 18 to 45 days

- Run 2 to 6 times over hurdles

- Won at least half their hurdles starts and never finished outside first 3 when completing

- Won at class 3 or higher

- Won a graded hurdle (or having first run in a graded hurdle)

- Won a hurdles race by 7 or more lengths

- Has run on the flat & officially rated 80+

- Won the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle

- Finished in first 3 in Wendsleydale or Spring Juvenile Hurdle

- Won a Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury, Market Rasen or Kempton

- Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholl

- From first 4 in the betting


- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1392062776#sthash.OAlh9lxy.dpuf

 

[mayo]

Adonis entries tomorrow. Lets see what that brings

 

[mayo]

Donns Dark Horse



Tiger Roll (Trainer: Gordon Elliott)

It is understandable that all the attention after the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown on Hennsssy day centred around the winner Guitar Pete. Dessie Hughes' horse is a wholly likeable sort with a willing attitude who jumps hurdles well. However, the quality of the performance that Tiger Roll put up in chasing him home may have gone a little under the radar.

The Gigginstown House horse came under pressure on landing over the second last flight that day, but he found plenty for that pressure, getting to within two lengths of Guitar Pete at the line and drawing almost four lengths clear of Plinth and Ivan Grozny. And but for a mistake at the final flight, he would have got even closer to the winner.

That was just the Authorized gelding's second ever run, and it was his first for Gordon Elliott. Winner of a maiden hurdle at Market Rasen for Nigel Hawke on his racecourse debut in November, he improved from that run to Leopardstown, and it is reasonable to expect that he will improve again now with his latest run under his belt. He could run in a Grade 2 juveniles' contest at Fairyhouse this Saturday, and that would give him a little more experience, which would be no burden to carry to Cheltenham.

It is significant that his trainer maintained that he was a Triumph Hurdle horse after his Leopardstown run. There was no sign of thoughts of defection to the Fred Winter, despite the fact that Elliott trained last year's Fred Winter winner Flaxen Flare, who had finished fifth in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle on his final run before Cheltenham.

 

[Old Vic]

 

[Old Vic]

"It was a most difficult decision and, in the end, I was swayed by the fact that my horse (Adriana Des Mottes) will be in receipt of the 7Ibs allowance for mares," stated Ruby Walsh in his Irish Examiner column and his choice proved to be the wrong one in the Grade 2 Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle at Fairyhouse as fellow Willie Mullins runner Abbyssial (11/4) prevailed under Paul Townend.
An Irish-bred son of the late great Beneficial, of course Abbyssial actually began his racing life in France but he's now three from three since returned to his native land.

Again the big chestnut made all and he had 8/11 shot Adriana Des Mottes and the rest in big trouble from the second last.

He did swish his tail on the run-in to give odds on backers some hope, but even though Adriana Des Mottes did close Abbyssial down close home, she was never going to get there and half a length separated them at the line.

Mullins reflected afterwards: "It was a very good performance. I wasn't happy with the way he jumped over the first few hurdles but other than that he was impressive.

"When he needed the jumps he got them and he had no problem jumping under pressure.

"He looks to be improving all the time.

"We'll have to talk to the owners now to see whether he travels or we keep him at home.

"I would like a wet Cheltenham for him – he wouldn't want it dry. If it dried up he wouldn't go.

"He's one that'll go back to France for a race there.

"I was saying to the owner (Mrs Violet O'Leary) earlier that he might skip Cheltenham and go to France but that performance puts Cheltenham back in the picture."

Boylesports left Abbyssial at 20/1 for the Triumph Hurdle whilst Ladbrokes clipped him in from 25s into 16s.

The Stewards fined W.P. Mullins, trainer, €130 for lodging a passport in respect of All Pepper (GER), in which the vaccinations did not conform with the provisions of Rule 91. The Stewards allowed the horse to run on receipt of the trainer's written assurance that the vaccinations were in order.