he Ryanair Chase was introduced to the Festival in 2005 as a grade 2 chase over 2M 5F for horses whose best trip fell between the Champion Chase and Gold Cup distances. It became a grade 1 chase in 2008 and has grown stronger each year. It makes up part of the supporting card to the World Hurdle on the Thursday and in recent years the King George at Kempton have provided the key clues for this.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-5
7yo: 1-3-10
8yo: 2-6-27
9yo: 2-4-26
10yo: 3-2-16
11yo+: 0-1-11
No very strong trends on the age of the winner in this race though all three 10yo winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a Ryanair or RSA Chase at a previous Festival.
6 of 7 horses aged 6 or 7 to make the frame were French Bred.
Bred
Irish bred: 5-8-52
French bred: 2-10-28
British bred: 2-0-10
Other: 0-0-4
No strong trends here.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 9 winners finished in the first 3 last time (2 exceptions unplaced in King George)
7 of 9 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start
8 of 9 winners had won at Cheltenham (5 over the trip)
6 of 9 winners had won a graded chase at Cheltenham (1 exception had finished 2nd in previous year's Arkle)
9 of 9 winners had 1 to 4 runs that season
9 of 9 winners had won a graded race
Since race became a grade 1, 5 of 6 winners had won a grade 1 chase & other had won Paddy Power Gold Cup
9 of 9 winners were officially rated 152+
8 of 9 winners (last 8) had won over 2M 5F or further
Other race
Defending Ryanair winner (Cue Card): P124 (1-1-4)
Highest placed finisher to return: 161P5124 (3-1-8)
Record of placed runners from previous year: 191U56495P (2-0-10)
Ascot Chase winner: 94211 (2-1-5)
Previous year's November Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 1 (1-0-1)
Amlin 1965 Chase winner (Al Ferof): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous year's Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 15 (1-0-2)
Red Mills Chase winner: 3335 (0-3-4)
Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 32 (0-2-2)
Previous season's Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 33 (0-2-2)
Hilly Way Chase winner (Twinlight): 3 (0-1-1)
Silver Trophy winner (Champion Court): P2 (0-1-2)
Peterborough Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): 5356647P (0-1-8)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 88 (0-0-2)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Twinlgiht): 9P (0-0-2)
Future Champion Novice Chase winner (Rajdhani Express): 44 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): P4 (0-0-2)
John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 655 (0-0-3)
Colin Parker Memorial Chase winner (Cloudy): 474 (0-0-3)
Highest placed finisher from Paddy Power Gold Cup: 19171948 (3-0-8)
Highest placed finisher from December Gold Cup: 1F21243 (2-3-7)
Highest placed finisher from King George: 535127145 (2-2-9)
5 of 9 winners ran in the King George, finishing 266P5
4 of 9 winners ran in Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 24F1 (none of last 4 have though)
4 of 9 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 3211
3 of 9 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 221
3 of 9 winners ran in that season's December Gold Cup, finishing 3B2
2 of 9 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl, finishing 33
2 of 9 winners ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 1F
In the first 3 years of this race the Paddy Power and December Gold Cups had been the key races though since this became a grade 1 in 2008, 5 of 6 winners had run in that season’s King George (exception was 2nd in previous season’s King George).
Since this became a grade 1, record of horses that ran in the King George: 61P21741174541 (5-1-14)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-2-12) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from 12 runners in this race.
Nicky Henderson (2-1-10) has also saddled the winner of this twice since 2005.
David Pipe (1-1-3) and Colin Tizzard (1-0-3) have both won this once.
Alan King (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the frame.
Irish trained runners (0-6-24) are still waiting for their first win in this race.
Mouse Morris (0-1-1), Robert Hennessy (0-1-2), Dessie Hughes (0-1-2) & Willie Mullins (0-1-5) have each saddled a placed finisher in past 5 years.
Price
8 of 9 winners were priced 6/1 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting.
Albertas Run in 2010 at 14/1 has been the only double-figure priced winner of this.
Favourites (2-4-10) don’t have a great record, having gained just 2 wins (one of which was a joint favourite), showing level stakes loss of 2.33.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 to 10 (or a French bred 6 or 7yo)
- Finished in first 3 last time (or ran in the King George)
- Achieved RPR of 154+ on last chase run
- Won over 2M 5F+
- Previously won a graded chase at Cheltenham
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Had 1 to 4 runs since October
- Officially rated 152+
- Ran in the King George this season or last season
- Finished in first 3 in last year’s Ryanair
- Finished in first 3 in Ascot Chase last time out
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or David Pipe
- From first 3 in the betting (6/1 or below)
Offline
- See more at:
http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1391095305#sthash.F2nREQcE.dpuf
) was that he has what looks like a fairly straight forward opportunity to win a third and join a list of legends. Talking through my pocket Id rather he stayed away. If it turns up soft he could still run here though
