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2014 Ryanair Chase

Old Vic

Old Vic

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RYANAIR CHASE CONDITIONS

THIRD DAY - Thursday, 13th March
TO CLOSE ON JANUARY 7th
THE RYANAIR STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 1) (Registered as The
Festival Trophy Steeple Chase) (Grade 1)
Total prize fund £275000
Distributed in accordance with Schedule (F)9.4.4
(Includes a sixth prize)
£156612 to the winning horse
The second to receive £58767, the third £29425, the fourth £14657,
the fifth £7370 and the sixth £3685
for five yrs old and upwards which are allotted a rating of 130 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to
and including March 6th. Horses which are not qualified for a rating in Great Britain, Ireland or France may also be entered. Such horses may be eligible providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and including March 6th would merit a minimum rating of 130.
The decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final.

TWO MILES ABOUT FIVE FURLONGS
Enter by noon, January 7th and pay £340 stake
Scratch by noon on February 11th or pay £680
Confirm by noon on March 7th and pay £340
Supplementary Entry by noon, March 7th and pay £13750 stake
Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 11th

Weights:
5-y-o...............11st 9lb;
6-y-o and up ... 11st 10lb
Mares allowed .. 7lb

PREVIOUS WINNERS

2013 CUE CARD 7-11-10 JOE TIZZARD COLIN TIZZARD 7-2 8
2012 RIVERSIDE THEATRE 8-11-10 BARRY GERAGHTY NICKY HENDERSON 7-2 12
2011 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 10-11-10 A. P. MCCOY JONJO O'NEILL 6-1 11
2010 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9-11-10 A. P. MCCOY JONJO O'NEILL 14-1 13
2009 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-10 P. J. BRENNAN N. A. TWISTON-DAVIES 6-1 10

MAIN TRENDS

No Irish trained winner in 9 renewals
8/9 from first 3 in the betting
Last two winners won Ascot Chase in final prep
7/9 had been previous Course Chase winners ( last two were the exceptions)
5 of the last 6 winners competed in the King George finishing 266P5
All win and placed at least rated 156.


RYANAIR CHASE BETTING

Cue Card is favourite but also has the Gold Cup as a possible target.

Ryanair Chase 2014 Odds

as at 03/01/2014

BetVictor Odds are NRFB
5480378.jpg
5087633.jpg
Cue Card
5/2
5/2
5/2
3/1
Al Ferof
7/1
7/1
7/1
8/1
Benefficient
7/1
7/1
7/1
7/1
First Lieutenant
6/1
8/1
8/1
7/1
Dynaste
10/1
10/1
10/1
12/1
Captain Conan
12/1
14/1
14/1
12/1

Paddy Power are a standout 20/1 about Marito and also best price at 16/1 on Arvika Ligeonniere

Boylesports are a best price of 8/1 about Al Ferof and also best at 10/1 about First Lieutenant


Looking at Video form the previous years race seems a good place to start.

2013 Ryanair Result

14:40 Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) (Grade 1) (Class 1, 2m 5f)
1. Cue Card - J Tizzard - C L Tizzard 7/2
2. First Lieutenant - B Cooper - M F Morris 2/1 Fav
3. For Non Stop - N Fehily - N Williams 12/1
4. Riverside Theatre - BJ Geraghty - NJ Henderson 7/1
8 Ran

Cue Card would be a worthy favourite and probably unopposable if he showed up here but both he and First Lieutenant are looking more likely to head towards the Gold Cup.

RYANAIR VIDEO FORM

2013 Race Video

 
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The 2012 renewal was a cracker with Riverside Theatre just denying Albertas Run a Hat trick in the race.

14:40 Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) (Grade 1) (Class 1, 2m 5f)
1. Riverside Theatre (B J Geraghty) 7/2Fav
2. Albertas Run (A P McCoy) 10/1
3. Medermit (R Thornton) 8/1
12 Ran

2012 Race Video

 
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The King George has also been a key guide with 6 of the last 7 winners running in it. Al Ferof has won the Paddy Power over the course and if Cue Card goes to Gold Cup he may be the most likely winner to come out of the King George.

 
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The other trial worth a second look is the previous years Jewson run over the same course and distance.

13:30 Jewson Novices' Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1, 2m 4f)
1. Benefficient - B J Cooper - A J Martin 20/1
2. Dynaste - T Scudamore - D Pipe 11/8 Fav
3. Changing Times - S Twiston-Davies - N Twiston-Davies 100/1
4. Capatin Conan - BJ Geraghty - NJ Henderson

13 Ran

Marito was faller two out and is another worth looking at.
 
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Maarito looked very good the last time out at Tramore. Also him running The Fly close over hurdles must bode well too. Obviously that run has to be taken in context but it was a decent showing regardless. Do you think that Pipe still feels that Dynaste can do a job in the Gold Cup (surely he wouldn't stay the extended 3m 2f??) and drop him in here??
 
FWIW I think Dynaste will run in this. Lot of men wonder why Marito blew his mark ...
 
43 entries for Ryanair Chase


Cue Card features among 43 entries for the £275,000 Ryanair Chase, the chasing highlight over two miles and five furlongs on day three of The Festival, St Patrick's Thursday, March 13.


The eight-year-old sauntered to the widest-margin success seen in the history of the race when beating First Lieutenant by nine lengths in last year's renewal, but trainer Colin Tizzard is now harbouring Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup ambitions following a decisive four and a half-length success in the Betfair Chase and a close second in the King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day.

Also engaged are Menorah and Al Ferof, winners of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 2010 and 2011 respectively, as well as 2012 Ryanair Chase hero Riverside Theatre.

A record 20 Irish-trained entries include the Tony Martin-trained Benefficient, who belied his odds of 20/1 to win last season's JLT Novices' Chase over two and a half miles by three and a half lengths from Dynaste. The eight-year-old disappointed in the three mile, one furlong Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in November, but bounced back to his best when getting the better of Hidden Cyclone and Arvika Ligeonniere in the Dial-A-Bet Chase over two miles and a furlong at Leopardstown just after Christmas.

Martin reported: "We have entered Benefficient in both the Ryanair Chase and BetVictor Champion Chase. We will just see how he is and what the ground is looking like nearer the time before making a decision.

"Everything seems OK after Leopardstown and it was a good performance. It looked a strong race beforehand, but he always seems to run well around Leopardstown and I thought he was in really good form going there.

"He had probably done a bit too much before he ran at Wetherby and, in hindsight, it was a mistake to send him there.

"We will see how Benefficient is later in the month before deciding whether or not he will run before The Festival."

Timeform Ratings for the Ryanair Chase (weight-adjusted)

191 CUE CARD

182 DYNASTE

181 FIRST LIEUTENANT

180 MENORAH

178 AL FEROF

176 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE

176? MEDERMIT

173 CHAMPION COURT

173 RIVERSIDE THEATRE
 
1833 said:
How on earth did Menorah get a 180 rating ?
Click to expand...

BHA is lower but still looks high enough :) Picked it up for 2nd to First Lieutenant at Aintree last year in the Bowl...

vq08eh.jpg
 
Must be value lurking somewhere in this market. Of the six horses listed by Vic in his betting table Id say Benefficient is the only one whole will end up running here. Hidden Cyclone at 35s on Betfair ? Looks an improved horse this year and put in a fine weight carrying performance in November. Might go pot hunting in the Champion Chase but s or so for that so could cover.
 
Fair point Mayo. Marito is one I am looking at but Hidden Cyclone a good call. Must be some chance Benefficient ends up in Champion Chase. Might be a re run of last years Jewson ?
 
If Sprinter Sacre doesnt run then The Snake Tony Martin will target Benefficent for the champion for sure. If he is fit I can see Tony taking a chance in the Ryanair. Bet365 are non runner no bet in this race so could be worth a squeak on him as I dont think Cue Card will run in the Rynair so he could be a 7/2 or 3/1 shot if he landed in the Ryanair come March?
 
Heard that Benefficient mob were sorry they didnt go for the Arkle after Baily Green got so close to Simonsig so Champion Chase definitely a possibility. It might leave the way open for Sizing Europe to win his third different festival race.
 
Surprised someone hasnt started a book on what race these Ryanair horses will run in. Sounds to me like Henderson is thinking Champion Chase for Captain Conan ?
 
Interesting race that at Thurles.

Nice comeback from Last Installment. Texas Jack and Baily Green will take plenty of encouragement from it too.

Fenton eyeing up Irish Hennessy next for Last Instalment. Meade looking at Ryanair for Texas Jack though he did disappoint in the Jewson.
 
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CheltFestNews ‏@CheltFestNews 2m

Quick u-turn from Meade. Texas Jack very likely to miss Ryanair. Probably realised he didn't enter him.:D

 
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Had been discussing Baily Green with skippy on Champion Chase thread. Yesterday was much better than the 30L's to Benefficient at Christmas. Been keeping an eye out on this blokes tips ( CVB from Betfair Forum) and like his logic on this. Hadnt noticed BEt365 were NRNB either.

Baily Green, ran a superb race to be 2nd to Simonsig in the Arkle last year. Lost a shoe early on his next start at Aintree so forgiven that subsequent run. He would have hated the deep ground at Punchestown on his final start last term and it was the end of a very long season for him.


He’s by Kings Theatre so is a horse who really appreciates good ground and not lacking stamina. He ran a very good race first time out this season behind Sizing Europe before meeting a setback and reported to be badly needing the run when he tackled 2 miles on soft ground in the Dial A Bet at Christmas. Mouse had warned prior to the Kinloch Brae chase that he still wasn’t fully fit and would prefer better ground so it was very encouraging to see him narrowly beaten by Texas Jack, especially as he met the last wrong.


We know how good Mouse is at getting his string ready for Cheltenham, he likes to send them there fresh off a break and rarely has them run in February. We know how well Baily Green ran in the Arkle off a break and I’d expect the same again. We know he likes the track and he’ll certainly enjoy the trip of the Ryanair.


All in all he looks a solid bet in the race given Cue Card is 85% certain to run in the Gold Cup. Al Ferof looked for all the world as if he needed further after the King George and I’d expect him to be Gold cup bound. Last Instalment could be Gold Cup bound if he runs well in Hennessy as Giggenstown have the massively underrated and over looked Toner Doudaires who has form on the New Course from the 2012 festival. Benefficient is clearly a big player but there isn’t much juice in 7/1 now.


Dynaste has had muscle problems and could run in Gold Cup, but would still appeal non runner no bet at 10/1, Arvika needs it soft and right handed. Marito is unconfirmed runner and fell at the course last year. Sizing Europe is a 12yo. Captain Conan & Module can lay down their claims if they can between now at March but with lackluster runs on their most recent starts they can't be backed at this stage.


So it’s very possible this race could see a massive shake up in the betting market when we get to the 5 day declaration stage. So in that case it’s best to side with a consistent horse with festival form that has juice in the price and non runner no bet concession. It's Baily Green.


1.5pts e/w Baily Green 25/1 – nrnb B365
http://www.jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html
Click to expand...
 
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