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2014 Queen Mother Champion Chase

I think Sprinter Sacre due to step up work this week with Game Spirit on Saturday week mentioned as a possible target.
 
Yep. Talking about going for a racecourse gallop rather than a race in RP this evening.
 
Arvika impressive

Ruby

"He travelled extremely well," said the rider, a Tied Cottage Chase winner on Nickname in 2007.

"He was brave at a few of his fences, but that's just him and two-milers for you. It was a really good performance and I don't see going left-handed being an issue anymore."

 
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mayo said:
Arvika impressive

Ruby

"He travelled extremely well," said the rider, a Tied Cottage Chase winner on Nickname in 2007.

"He was brave at a few of his fences, but that's just him and two-milers for you. It was a really good performance and I don't see going left-handed being an issue anymore."

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Not Cheltenham is it.
 
Sprinter gets a day out on Saturday

Henderson said: "We're very grateful to Newbury for allowing us to bring Sprinter Sacre on Saturday.

"The whole purpose of the exercise is to give him a racecourse outing which doesn't bring back bad memories of what happened at Kempton.

"He'll be wearing his heart monitor, which he wears constantly anyway, and he will parade around the paddock with Denman. They'll make a nice double act!

"Hopefully he'll come back with a bit of a spring in his step."

Clerk of the course Richard Osgood said: "Nicky asked us if we would mind Sprinter Sacre having a walk around the parade ring before racing and we were only too happy to help.

"We always try to assist trainers as much as we can and everyone in racing just wishes that Sprinter Sacre makes a speedy and full recovery.

"Denman will also be parading and it's going to be a wonderful opportunity for racegoers to see two of the finest racehorses of the modern era."
 
Wednesday, March 12, is Ladies Day and features the £350,000 BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase. Heading the 17 confirmations for the two-mile chase is the great Sprinter Sacre, who is bidding to bounce back to his best after being pulled up in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton Park in December, following which he was found to have an irregular heartbeat.

Timeform shows the Nicky Henderson-trained eight-year-old, the imperious 19-length winner in 2013, is clearly the one to beat at his best with a rating of 203p, 22lb clear of Sire De Grugy (181+).

Sire De Grugy, trained by Gary Moore, won the Desert Orchid Chase and has also recorded Grade One victories this season in the BetVictor Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown Park on December 7 and Clarence House Chase at Ascot on January 18.
 
The highlight of the second day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Bet Victor Queen Mother Champion Chase. Sprinter Sacre’s very impressive 19 length success last year gave Nicky Henderson a second straight winner in this race. It is still unclear whether Sprinter Sacre will be able to defend his title.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-0-1

6yo: 2-3-9

7yo: 2-1-10

8yo: 1-2-24

9yo: 3-3-23

10yo: 0-7-16

11yo+: 1-3-10

Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 5-4-20 (all 5 winners were French bred)

Horses aged 8+ have a combined record of 5-15-73 (all 5 winners were Irish-bred)

Moscow Flyer has been the only winner in the last 10 runnings to be aged over 9 (and the only winner aged over 10 in last 30 years)



Breeding

Irish bred: 5-10-40

French bred: 5-4-31

German bred: 0-3-6

British bred: 0-2-15

NZ Bred: 0-0-1

French & Irish bred horses have won the last 10, though they did represent just over 76% of the total runners.

Most Irish bred runners don’t run in this until they are at least 8 but the continental 2M chasers seem to peak much younger:

French & German bred horses aged 5 to 7: 5-4-17

French & German bred horses aged 8 or older: 0-4-20



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won a graded chase on their last completed start (2 exception finished 2nd & 3rd in graded chases)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 165+ on last completed chase start

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners had run in 7 to 13 chases (exception was Moscow Flyer when winning it for a second time)

9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exception was Moscow Flyer when winning it for a second time)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1F+

9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (exceptions was runner-up in only previous grade 1)

6 of 10 winners were course winners (2 exceptions hadn’t run at the track before, 1 fell on only previous course start & other was 2nd in previous season's Arkle)



Previous Cheltenham Festival Form

Defending Champion Chaser (Sprinter Sacre): U35421422 (1-4-9)

Previous season's Arkle winner: 121211 (4-2-6)

Highest placed Arkle Finisher to run in this: 12U1362111 (5-3-10)

Grand Annual Chase winner (Alderwood): 25 (0-1-2)

5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 11121

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Champion chase, finishing F1F

Master Minded in 2008 (who was having his first season racing in Great Britain) and Newmill in 2006 (who benefitted from Kauto Star’s fall) were the only two winners not to have run in the Arkle or Champion Chase at the previous Festival.



Other races

Tingle Creek winner (Sire De Grugy): U161P821 (3-1-8)

Tied Cottage Chase winner: 141422 (2-2-6)

Maghulls Novice Chase winner (Special Tiara): 26311 (2-2-5)

Desert Orchid Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 1214 (2-1-4)

Victor Chandler Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 271P81 (2-1-6)

Game Spirit Chase winner: 131463 (2-1-6)

Previous season's Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 16415 (2-0-5)

Punchestown Champion Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 214PF4432 (1-3-8)

Previous season's November Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 1F3 (1-1-3)

Previous season's Melling Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 15 (1-0-2)

Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet winner (Benefficient): U6PF6232 (0-3-8)

Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 22 (0-2-2)

Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 2 (0-1-1)

Poplar Square Chase winner (Twinlight): 63 (0-1-2)

Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): F3 (0-1-2)

Previous season's Halloween Trophy winner (Module): F3 (0-1-2)

Red Rum Handicap Chase winner (Oiseau De Nuit): 25 (0-1-2)

Haldon Gold Cup winner (Somersby): 37 (0-1-2)

Celebration Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): P3P74 (0-1-5)

Manifesto Novices' Chase winner (Captain Conan): 0F (0-0-2)

Shloer Chase winner (Kid Cassidy): 743 (0-0-3)

Previous season's Irish Arkle winner (Benefficient): 465 (0-0-3)

Hilly Way Chase winner (Twinlight): 564 (0-0-4)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 212141

2 of 10 winners ran in the Melling chase, finishing 12

3 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Tied Cottage Chase last time, finishing 113

2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 51

2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 13

4 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Victor Chandler Chase, finishing 2121

3 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Game Spirit Chase last time, finishing 1U1

2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Desert Orchid Chase, finishing 11



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-1-17) has won 3 of last 10 runnings, including 2 of last 6 with Master Minded.

Nicky Henderson (2-1-6) has trained the last 2 winners of the Queen Mother.

Henry De Bromhead (1-2-3) has saddled Sizing Europe to finish 1st, 2nd & 2nd in past 3 runnings.

Alan King (1-1-3) and Nicky Henderson (1-1-5) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 6 years.

Philip Hobbs (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 representatives make the frame.

Irish trained runners (4-7-27) have done well in this lately, winning 4 of the last 10 from less than 30% of the total runners. The first 2 home in 2010, the first 4 home in 2011 and the 2nd & 3rd in 2012 & 2nd in 2013 were all trained in Ireland.



Price

7 of 10 winners were priced 5/1 or below

The 3 winners priced higher than 5/1 were all trained in Ireland.

Favourites (3-2-10) have taken 3 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 4.89.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 8 or 9

- Won a graded chase on last completed outing

- Posted an RPR of 165+ last time out

- Run 2 to 4 times this season

- Run 7 to 13 times over fences (or a previous Champion Chase winner)

- 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or previous Champion Chase winner)

- Won over at least 2M 1F

- Previously won a grade 1

- Course winner (or having first course run)

- Won the Arkle or ran in Champion Chase at 2013 Festival

- Finished in the first 4 in the Tingle Creek

- Ran in Game Spirit, Victor Chandler or Tied Cottage Chase last time

- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1390172712#sthash.grJZkau1.dpuf
 
Previous Cheltenham Festival Form

Defending Champion Chaser (Sprinter Sacre): U35421422 (1-4-9)

Previous season's Arkle winner: 121211 (4-2-6)

Highest placed Arkle Finisher to run in this: 12U1362111 (5-3-10)
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:eek:so even if Sprinter wasnt under a cloud stats suggest he would be in trouble.

Hard to make a case for highest place finisher from previous Arkle - Could be Baily Green otherwise Arvika ( who didnt finish !) the only other one left in.


Other stat against Sprinter

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season

Hard to say he even ran once. Last time a horse won Champion Chase of one prep run anyone ?
 
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Hard to say he even ran once. Last time a horse won Champion Chase of one prep run anyone ?
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Good question RC - I'll fire it out on twitter.
 
Strange quote from Henderson in the post in the pricewise Ryanair piece


Captain Conan is more likely to go two miles but it depends on Sprinter Sacre as to whether he runs in the Champion instead.


Sounds like Sprinter in doubt ?
 
mayo said:
Strange quote from Henderson in the post in the pricewise Ryanair piece


Captain Conan is more likely to go two miles but it depends on Sprinter Sacre as to whether he runs in the Champion instead.


Sounds like Sprinter in doubt ?
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He was on bet racing nation this evening. Sprinter worked well but sounds like Captain Conan and kid Cassidy will go there too.
 
"He either runs in the Champion Chase or we put him away for next season," Henderson told BetRacingNation TV.

"He worked on Wednesday and I was pleased with him. He wears a heart monitor in all his work and he's wired up to Newmarket. I have the results back within an hour, it's all perfectly OK.

"We've got work to do and I would think it will be another 10 days before we finally make the decision.

"He could go to Kempton on Friday week or even Newbury (next) weekend as I wouldn't mind him jumping some fences on a racecourse.

"Captain Conan is in good order and I think he will finish up running in the Champion Chase whether Sprinter is there or not, and Kid Cassidy will almost certainly run in it, too, so we might be three-handed.

"Sprinter will only run if he is back to what we consider his very best. If he is, to be fair, unless I get this wrong, he is the one they all have to beat.

"It will be difficult to beat him if he is back and if he's not back I won't run him."
 
Sprinter weak on Betfair but thought he was short compared to NRNB so hoping it is just one if those games market makers play
 
:( not all about betting - gutted
 
There is every chance Hinterland could now go to QM Champion Chase. He is a 2nd Season Novice after all #AskPaulNicholls

I am giving serious consideration to sending Hinterland to Champion Chase given he's a 2nd season novice #AskPaulNicholls
 
;)
TM: says heavy ground Benefficent goes QMCC, yielding he goes RyanAir Tony actually keen to go RyanAir with Benificient, thinks he has a right chance in this race. Tony not mad on Sire de Grugy, Arvika a majestic horse he says but can't put it together. Aeroplane if puts it together.
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:D

All aboard Benefficient for the Champion Chase then.
 
Frank Berry told us last night but....

Dual Festival winner Alderwood is unlikely to run in the Champion Chase after bruising a hoof states Tom Mullins.
 
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