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2014 JLT Novices Chase ( old Jewson)

The first race on day 3 is one of the newest races added to the Festival, the JLT Novice Chase (formerly the Jewson), run over 2M 4F for novice chasers. It was first run in 2011 and all 3 previous runnings have been won by the Irish.



Below we take a quick scan through the stats from the 3 previous runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-1

6yo: 1-0-12

7yo: 2-5-17

8yo: 0-1-3

9yo+: 0-0-1

7yos have won 2 of 3 and filled 7 of 9 places, though have represented 50% of total runners.



Breeding

Irish Bred: 1-4-18

French Bred: 1-1-12

German Bred: 1-0-2

British Bred: 0-1-2



Recent/Past Form

3 of 3 winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 last time out

3 of 3 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time out

3 of 3 winners had last run between 45 and 55 days ago

3 of 3 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases

3 of 3 winners had won over 2M 4F

2 of 3 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (exception 2nd in grade 1 chases on last 2 starts)

3 of 3 winners had run 3 to 11 hurdles

3 of 3 winners were rated 140+ over hurdles

The 3 winners had run in a combined 11 chases, finishing 1st or 2nd in 10 of those 11.



Other Races

Irish Arkle winner (Trifolium): 1 (1-0-1)

Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 1 (1-0-1)

Killiney Novice Chase winner (Djakadam): 17 (1-0-2)

Greenmount Park Novice Chase winner (The Paparazzi Kid): 710 (1-0-3)

Rising Star Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): 2 (0-1-1)

Dipper Novice Chase winner (Oscar Whisky): 2 (0-1-1)

Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): 2 (0-1-1)

Feltham Novice Chase winner (Annacotty): 2 (0-1-1)

Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase winner (Taquin Du Seuil): 2 (0-1-1)

Buck House Novice Chase winner (Art Of Logistics): 3 (0-1-1)

2 of 3 winners ran in Irish Arkle last time, finishing 21

2 of 3 winners ran in Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 24

3 of 3 winners ran in a hurdles race at previous year's Cheltenham Festival (1 County, 1 Neptune & 1 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys)



Trainers

Irish trained runners (3-1-10) have won all 3 runnings of this race.

Paul Nolan (1-0-1) & Willie Mullins (1-0-4) won the first 2 runnings of this.

Nick Williams (0-1-1), Martin Keighley (0-1-1), Henry De Bromhead (0-1-1), Philip Hobbs (0-1-2), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-2) & David Pipe (0-1-3) have all saddled 1 placed finisher.

Paul Nicholls (0-0-3) & Nicky Henderson (0-0-5) have failed to saddle 1 placed finisher from a combined 8 runners.



Price

The 3 winners have been priced 4/1, 3/1 & 20/1, 2 of them were second favourites.

Favourites (0-2-3) have filled the runners-up spot twice, show a level stakes loss of 3.00.



Summary:

Based on small amount gleaned from 3 previous runnings you are looking for a horse:

- Run in 3 to 5 chases this season

- Never finished out of the first 2 over fences

- Finished 1st or 2nd last time and posted an RPR of 150+ last time

- Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (or 2nd in a grade 1)

- Run in 3 to 11 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles

- Ran in a hurdle at the 2013 Festival

- Trained in Ireland

- Ran in the Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...ce-chase-2014-1392236752#sthash.427fpJsl.dpuf
 
Don't back Bright New Dawn !

Hughes said: "I'm pleased with that, and he battled when he needed to.

"I don't know about Cheltenham, he looks an ideal horse for the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse and maybe Punchestown after that.

"I'd be happy to go up in trip with him, even three miles.

"The race suited him here and the heavy ground too. We thought he was quick enough for two miles and he showed today he is. Maybe in good ground two miles might be on top of his head.

"I think his ideal trip is two and a half, but he'll stay three and now we know he has the speed for two in this ground. He's a horse with gears and he jumps quickly."
 
More Donn ( for Hoof)

Djakadam (Trainer: Willie Mullins)

Djakadam was just a rung below the top juvenile hurdlers last season. He didn't make it to Cheltenham for the Triumph Hurdle or the Fred Winter, choosing instead to go to Limerick the following week and win a juveniles' contest there at odds of 1/6.

Fourth behind three stable-companions in the Grade 1 Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, he is built and bred to be a staying steeplechaser, and he has looked good in both his runs over fences to date.

At Leopardstown's Christmas Festival, he stayed on strongly over two miles and three furlongs to get the better of the more-experienced pair Si C'Etait Vrai and Minsk. Then he went back to Leopardstown on Irish Champion Hurdle day, stepped slightly up in distance and significantly up in class, and duly beat the highly-regarded Bright New Dawn (who was impressive in winning at Navan on Sunday), with the pair of them clear of the talented Mullaghanoe River.

As a five-year-old, Djakadam was receiving 11lb from his elders in both his chases to date, and that will be significantly reduced by the time the Cheltenham Festival rolls around (to 1lb if he runs in the JLT Chase, or to 2lb if he contests the longer RSA Chase). But he could be maturing and progressing with experience at a rate that is faster than the degree by which his allowance is being reduced.

Like the majority of the Willie Mullins novices (hurdlers as well as chasers), his Cheltenham target and some of his stable companions' Cheltenham targets are interdependent, but the JLT Chase could be the race for him in 2014. Longer term, he could be a really exciting staying chaser for the future.
 
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Nigel TD "Double Ross is going to go for the two-and-a-half-mile novice rather than a handicap."

Has good course form :confused:

Double Ross (IRE)
8 ch g Double Eclipse (IRE) - Kinross (Nearly A Hand)
Form: 3/35132082/32F14453P-6132112 Owner: Options O Syndicate Breeder: T McIlhagga
Nigel Twiston-Davies said: "Double Ross has done lots of good stuff at Cheltenham. He will go for the JLT Novices' Chase rather than the handicaps because there might be some improver lower in the weights. He is more experienced over fences than most of the novices. I think experience over the Cheltenham fences is quite important. He has been around there three times this season. Oscar Whisky does not look as fluent in his jumping. Double Ross can go on any ground. It is a question of whether he will be good enough. He will take the race to them, being up with the pace."
* Eighth in the 2012 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at The Festival and third in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at the meeting last year.
* Made two appearances without success over fences during the 2011/2012 campaign, but has excelled over the larger obstacles this season, winning a pair of valuable Grade Three handicap chases at Cheltenham - the Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup on December 14 and the Fairlawne Handicap Chase on January 1.
* Runner-up, beaten a length and three quarters by Wishfull Thinking, in the Grade Three Freebets.com Trophy Chase on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham on January 25.
* Remains engaged in two of the novices' chases at The Festival - the RSA Chase and the JLT Novices' Chase - as well holding entries in the Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase Handicap Chase and Byrne Group Plate.
Race Record: Starts: 25; Wins: 5; 2nd: 5; 3rd: 6; Win & Place prize money: £157,151


18s NRNB with BET365

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Willie - chance Felix might yet go to Arkle ?



Djakadam also schooled very well at Leopardstown and I'd imagine we're going to be looking at the JLT for him. The Arkle might be a bit short and I'm not sure I want to put a 5yo into the RSA at this stage of his career so the JLT is the most likely option for him.

At the moment we're also looking at the JLT for Felix Yonger as well. He is more ground dependant. He prefers good ground so the going will dictate where we go. He found it difficult to get out of the heavy ground at Limerick over the Christmas and again when running second in the Irish Arkle behind Trifolium.

He found the good going at Cheltenham much more to his liking over hurdles last year when he finished second to Simonsig in the Neptune so the better the ground, the better his chances this time around. We'll see what the ground is like closer to the day but with the Arkle on the Tuesday and the JLT on the Thursday, the latter race will give us two more days for the ground to dry out, if needs be.
 
I think he defo goes to the JLT. He will be bouncing off that ground at that stage. He has quickly become one of my best bets of the festival now. He has Wonderful Charm and Oscar Whiskey to beat with perhaps Sizing Gold too. I think it will be too quick for Taquin du Seuil.
 
Rock on Ruby left in. Shades of a peddlers cross about his campaign.
 
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