• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2014 Gold Cup

A few dosage profiles for your consideration :p

I looked at this way back http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/racing_news.php?FJ-Feature-An-Introduction-to-Dosage-6 but more or less gave up.

The total DP would seem to help in finding previous winners and should highlight underlying class in the breeding. Bobs Worth & Synchronised both have/had good pedigrees. Harry Topper and Cue Card look main challengers on a total DP basis but unless I am reading this wrong Harry Topper's pedigree is loaded with speed which doesnt seem right !

If anyone can give me a steer on interpreting it help will be appreciated.

AL FEROF (FR) gr. G, 2005 {1-s} DP = 0-0-2-2-0 (4) DI = 0.33 CD = -0.50 - 18 Starts, 9 Wins, 2 Places, 5 Shows Career Earnings: £312,726 in IRE/GB

BOBS WORTH (IRE) b. G, 2005 {7} DP = 2-2-16-6-2 (28) DI = 0.75 CD = -0.14 - 14 Starts, 10 Wins, 2 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: £656,503 in GB

CUE CARD (GB) b. G, 2006 {21-a} DP = 4-0-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.29 - 20 Starts, 10 Wins, 6 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: £638,517

LAST INSTALMENT (IRE) ch. G, 2005 {5-f} DP = 1-1-2-2-0 (6) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.17 - 10 Starts, 7 Wins, 0 Places, 2 Shows Career Earnings: £163,535 in Ire

SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) ch. G, 2006 { } DP = 0-0-2-0-0 (2) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.00 - 19 Starts, 11 Wins, 1 Places, 4 Shows Career Earnings: £528,265 in GB

FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) ch. G, 2005 {25} DP = 1-1-2-4-2 (10) DI = 0.43 CD = -0.50 - 24 Starts, 7 Wins, 7 Places, 6 Shows Career Earnings: £454,327 in GB/Ire

HARRY TOPPER (GB) b. G, 2007 {5} DP = 7-2-6-0-1 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.88 - 15 Starts, 8 Wins, 1 Places, 2 Shows Career Earnings: £141,725





Previous Winners

SYNCHRONISED (IRE) b. G, 2003 {11-a} DP = 5-1-24-8-0 (38) DI = 0.90 CD = 0.08 - 20 Starts, 9 Wins, 1 Places, 3 Shows Career Earnings: £510,775

LONG RUN (FR) b. G, 2005 {1-x} DP = 1-0-4-3-0 (8) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.13 - 26 Starts, 14 Wins, 7 Places, 5 Shows Career Earnings: £1,501,558 in GB/Fr


BEST MATE (IRE) b. G, 1995 {1-e} DP = 1-1-10-5-1 (18) DI = 0.64 CD = -0.22 - 22 Starts, 14 Wins, 7 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: £ 885,112


DENMAN (IRE) br. G, 2000 {4} DP = 0-1-1-6-2 (10) DI = 0.18 CD = -0.90 - 14 Starts, 13 Wins, 1 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: £677,114 (3/08)

KAUTO STAR (FR) b. G, 2000 {12-b} DP = 2-2-6-10-2 (22) DI = 0.47 CD = -0.36 - 40 Starts, 23 Wins, 7 Places, 4 Shows Career Earnings: £2,375,883

IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) b. G, 2001 {2-a} DP = 3-2-4-2-1 (12) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.33 - 20 Starts, 8 Wins, 2 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: £707,073

KICKING KING (IRE) b. G, 1998 {8-c} DP = 2-0-8-8-2 (20) DI = 0.43 CD = -0.40 - 28 Starts, 12 Wins, 8 Places, 3 Shows Career Earnings: £818,032
 
Last edited:

Last Installment back to his best
 
Serious performance. Should have taken those 50s I was alerting about himself and Lyreen Legend!
 
Lyreen Legend also probably better suited to the Ryanair I'd say too....
 
skippymac6 said:
Serious performance. Should have taken those 50s I was alerting about himself and Lyreen Legend!
Click to expand...

On a line thru First Lieutenant probably more impressive than Bobs Worth. Quotes from O'Leary would be a bit of a worry for backers. Said he wasnt sure about the Gold Cup and when you have a good one you want to look after him or something like that.
 
Baz

I’d say that Last Instalment is going to improve a lot over this season and is a gorgeous horse. He’s going to be a big player in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and at the moment he’s the one I’d fear most with Bobs Worth
 
Al Ferof, not surprisingly, was scratched from the GoldCup. Entry still held in both Ryan Air and Champion Chase. So I'm assuming if Sprinter Sacre doesn't show up he runs in the Queen Mother and if he does then its the RyanAir. Eitherway he wouldn't be a punting prospect for me. Honestly dont think he would stay the 2M5F.
 
Hi the porge. Think Nicholls was saying it will depend on ground where Al Ferof goes. He looked like a serious horse when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup but hasnt really sparked this year. Maybe Cheltenham will bring the best out of him ?
 
The £550,000 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup is the highlight of The Festival and 26 horses go forward for the chase over extended three and a quarter miles on Gold Cup Day, Friday, March 14. Cue Card (191) is also top-rated with Timeform for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, 1lb clear of last year's hero Bobs Worth (190).

Paul Nicholls, the most successful current trainer in the Blue Riband of chasing with four wins, is responsible for the third-best rated Silviniaco Conti (187), while Timeform makes Last Instalment (180) the best of the remaining eight Irish-trained entries.

The next acceptance stage for all five of the main Championship contests at The Festival is now at the five/six-day confirmation stage, when horses can also be added as a supplementary entry.
 
Hi folks...been lurking here for a while. Have to agree with the champ on the gold cup - think these three are the tricast

I have to say that I think Last Instalment is right in the Betfred Gold Cup picture after his win in the Irish Hennessy.

I thought he was very impressive and he is definitely a player for Cheltenham. I had viewed the Gold Cup as a two-horse race between Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti for much of the season but Last Instalment is right in there with them. He jumped very well on Sunday and would probably want a bit of cut in the ground at Cheltenham, which he might get given the way things are at the moment.

Harry Topper won OK at Newbury the day before and he, like The Giant Bolster, is a very consistent horse. One of those two will probably finish fourth in the Gold Cup but the form of the top three is just that much stronger.
 
Rocky Creek

He's still got an entry in the Grand National but he'll be going for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup. I still think he needs a bit more experience to run at Aintree and he's not exactly thrown in with 11 stone 5lb. He ran a cracking race in the Hennessy when still upsides the winner jumping the last and he had a setback after that with a little bit of colic. I think we rushed him a bit when running him in the Argento and he got a bit tired from the back of the last. I don't think I've had him as fit as he should be yet due to plenty of circumstances and he's a horse that needs plenty of work and he'll have a racecourse gallop somewhere before Cheltenham. I think he could run a big race in the Gold Cup. He beat Harry Topper at Cheltenham and that horse has shortened up but he's still 40/1. He wants good ground and he's capable of running a big race, he's a decent staying chaser and I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.
 
Ruby

And I must finish with Last Instalment, who greatly impressed me in the Hennessy. The pace was slow, at least in the early part of the race, and that was hardly in his favour.

Last Instalment’s jumping was impeccable and I was blown away by his power. Following him reminded me of Denman.
 
The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 14th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. The key trends for the race seem to point to a horse aged 6 to 9 that finished 1st or 2nd in either the King George or Lexus this season.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-0-3

7yo: 3-4-21

8yo: 2-6-44

9yo: 4-5-33

10yo: 0-3-27

11yo: 0-2-14

12yo+: 0-0-4

Horses aged 6 to 9 (10-15-101) have won the last 10 runnings.

Horses aged 10+ (0-5-45) have gained no wins and 5 places in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. The 5 placed finishers aged 10+ had were either former Gold Cup winners or had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National.



Breeding

Irish Bred: 7-10-71

French Bred: 3-8-43

British Bred: 0-2-23

Other: 0-0-3

Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10, though they have represented 81.4% of the total runners.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last time out (one exception 2nd in Lexus & other 5th in King George)

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season (exception has won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start (exception posted an RPR of 177 on penultimate start)

10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 167+ in one of both of last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 11 chases in their career (exception was Kauto Star winning it a second time)

8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before)

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception had each finished 2nd in Lexus on only previous try at 3M+)

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase

7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase that season (3 exceptions were Imperial Commander beaten a short head in grade 1 Betfair Chase, War Of Attrition 2nd in grade 1 Lexus & Bobs Worth won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season)

8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (1 exception was Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother and other was Synchronised who was having first run at Festival)

4 of 4 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase



Previous Cheltenham Form

Returning Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 122FP3 (1-3-6)

Highest placed finisher from last year to return: 135022FP34 (1-4-10)

RSA Chase winner (Lord Windermere): P1951 (2-0-5)

Ryanair Chase winner (Cue Card): 1 (1-0-1)

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 12

3 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 131

2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27

9 of 10 winners ran in a chase at the previous Festival (exception was Synchronised in 2012, who was placed in Midlands National on the Saturday of Cheltenham week the previous year)

8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (1 exception was Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother and other was Synchronised who was having first run at Festival)



Other races

King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 1121F1P3 (4-2-7)

Lexus Chase winner (Bobs Worth): 1001371 (3-1-7)

Denman Chase winner: 1183F (2-1-5)

Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Triolo D'Alene): 7618201 (2-1-7)

Previous season's Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): 11 (2-0-2)

JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): P013 (1-1-5)

Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): 012PFPPF (1-1-8)

Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 1 (1-0-1)

John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 41 (1-0-2)

Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase winner (Dynaste): 1P5 (1-0-3)

Previous season's Feltham winner (Dynaste): 601 (1-0-3)

Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Mount Benbulben): 0P2 (0-1-3)

Previous season's PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Boston Bob): 3F5 (0-1-3)

Argento Chase winner: 52687 (0-1-5)

Irish Hennessy Gold Cup winner: 4004P2 (0-1-6)

Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase winner (Cloudy Too): P5 (0-0-2)

Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): PF (0-0-2)

Previous season's Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner (Rocky Creek): 694 (0-0-3)

Aintree Bowl winner (First Lieutenant): 5P54 (0-0-4)

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Harry Topper): 50PF (0-0-4)

5 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 11151

4 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 1211

9 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season (8 of 9 were 1st or 2nd)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2

2 of 10 winners ran in the Denman Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15

2 of 2 Irish-trained winner ran in previous year's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing 1B

2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Feltham Novice Chase, finishing 13

2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-6-26) has trained 3 of the last 7 winners of this and seen over a third of his runners make the places since 2004.

Nicky Henderson (2-2-7) trained the winner in 2011 & 2013.

Mouse Morris (1-0-3) trained War Of Attrition to win the race in 2006.

The Pipe Stable (0-0-9) and Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 13 collective runners.

Irish trained runners (2-4-21) won the race in 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled more recently, failing to fill a single place between 2007 & 2012. Sir Des Champs (2nd in 2013) was first Irish-trained runner to make the frame since 2006.



Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

The longest priced winner since 2000 has been 8/1, however in the past 10 years horses priced 16/1 or bigger have filled 8 of 20 places (4 seconds and 4 thirds).

Favourites (6-3-10) have taken 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 9.98.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 to 9

- Irish or French bred

- Had 5 to 11 career chase starts (2 to 5 this season)

- Finished in first 2 in all chase starts over 2M 6F+ this season

- Second or third season chaser (or previous winner of Gold Cup)

- Won last time out and posted RPR of 162+

- Posted an RPR of 167+ in last 2 chase starts

- Won over 3M+

- Won a grade 1 chase (ideally this season)

- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2013 Festival

- Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season

- From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)

- Trained in Britain (especially by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson)
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...p-trends-2014-1390172926#sthash.akM91AuD.dpuf
 
:rolleyes:a bit of a stats fest on here this morning. I like the racecaller stats so will leave on here presuming they are fine with it. As before dont mind providing links back to others content and know this helps us all with google.

It really isnt a race to overthink

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

So it will be Bobs, Silvi and either Last Installment or Cue Card :)
 
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/6j2Y6V3U-Lc?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Gold Cup Preview
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom