2014 Coral Cup

[mayo]

Creepy

Creepy

You'd want a horse that's won 2m 2f at least. Run at least twice this season.

Going to take a punt on it being good ground

Timesremembered and Creepy two decent e/w prices and will cherish the likely conditions. 25/1 + 33/1

Followed you in on Creepy. He was on my radar but was a bit wary that they werent a laying one out type of yard. Hopefully ground is the key and he hasnt been bottomed.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/ho...=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

He has being keeping good company although a 100L beating LTO to Red Sherlock doesnt scream Cheltenham Festival winner.

 

[oscar]

Hated the ground though Mayo. Good ground key. Got a good weight.

 

[Statto]

Any stats for this about ?

my notes

Age
Slight preference for 5-7 year olds who make up 8 of last 10 winners from roughly 2/3rd of runners
Horses aged 10+ are 1-24 to place since 1999
Five year old have won 3 of last 8 ( were 1-2-3 in 2011)

Weight
No strong trend with horses in top half of handicap slightly better than lower weights.
Since 1999 only 2 have carried more than 11 2 to victory.
Top Weight: 303102007P2P0 (1-4-13)

Official Ratings
The sweet spot seems to be the in the 140 to 147 range winning 4 of last 5 renewals.
No horse rated over 147 has won the race.

Recent/Past Form
3/8 have not run during the calendar year ( well handicapped horses protecting a mark)
7/11 and 15/20 won last time out from c 20% of the field
10/10 had run at least twice that season
9/10 had previously won 2 to 4 hurdles races
9/10 had won 1 or 2 hurdles races that season
7/10 had run in 4 or fewer handicap hurdles
8/10 had won 0 or 1 handicap hurdle (both exceptions had won 2)
7/9 were second season hurdlers

Trainers
Irish trained runners are 3/10 from 17% of runners ( 7/20 from c 20%)
Alan King trained the 1-2 last year.
Willie Mullins just 1 placed finisher from 9 runners, 5 went off 10/1 or shorter (including 2 favourites).

Price
8/10 winners have been priced 13/2 to 16/1.
Favourites have a very poor recent record, with their last win coming back in 2003.

 

[Statto]

So looking at field:

My Shortlist

Ruled out horses above 11-2 i.e OR of 144
Limited to LTO winners
Ruled out Mullins horses on trend and value

Left with

Waaheb - Weld
Une Artiste - C&D winner
Vieux Lion Rouge - Pipey
Lac Fontana
Kaylif Aramis
Doctor Harper
Hazy Tom
Calculated Risk
Knight of Noir

 

[Old Vic]

Pricewise tipped Dunquib at Sydney Arms - he is a horrible trend fit on age, weight and runs.

 

[Old Vic]

Waaheb - Weld 20s 21 on Betfair - looks like he goes here?
Une Artiste - C&D winner 20s 39 on Betfair
Vieux Lion Rouge - 14s but 51 on Betfair NR ?
Lac Fontana - 20s but 66 on betfair NR ?
Kaylif Aramis - 16s - sam jocked up
Doctor Harper - 16s -39s on Betfair
Hazy Tom - 33s 56s on Betfair
Calculated Risk -33s 66s on Betfair
Knight of Noir - 16s but 61 on betfair NR ?

Waheeb quotes. He could be well in but Weld factor would put me off.

4 january

Waaheb, a very promising sort when successful three times in bumpers, recorded his first win in over 14 months when taking the McCarthy Insurance Group Hurdle at Cork.

The Elusive Quality gelding earned a rating in the mid 140’s when taking on top novice company last term – second to Jezki in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting – but his form has tailed off a bit since.

However this represented a good opportunity against just three rivals, with Way Up In The Air (lame) a non-runner.

Turban was sent off the 8/13 favourite on his seasonal debut but the Willie Mullins-trained gelding jumped far from fluently in front.

Mark Walsh produced Waaheb to challenge two out and, with a slight advantage at the final flight, the 7/4 chance stayed on best under pressure on the run-in to score by a length and a half.

The pair stretched 17 lengths clear of Silver Friend in third.

Winning trainer Dermot Weld’s son Kris said, “It’s nice to get the first winner of the year out of the way. The ground was far from ideal but they did really well to get the meeting on. He jumped well and battled well, and we’ll look for a similar conditions race now.”


After race at Fairyhouse Tue, 23rd Oct, 2012 (1st) That was very satisfactory,. He still has a lot to learn. He was a bit novicey early but his jumping improved as the race progressed. We'll look for a novice but could wait until Christmas as we're not in any hurry with him. I hope the spring is his target. He's won in testing ground there but that's really not what he wants. He's a talented horse with a lot of class. D K Weld
After race at Limerick Sun, 3rd Apr, 2011 (1st) He won very easily although Robbie said he hated the ground,. It was quite sticky but his class rose to the top. He'll go to Punchestown for the champion bumper next and that would probably finish him then for the summer. D K Weld
After race at Leopardstown Sun, 27th Feb, 2011 (1st) That was a very good performance giving 14Ibs to the runner-up who looks like a very nice horse. The plan was to hold him up and ride him for pace but Robbie wisely did the right thing by going on. They pulled a long way clear of the third too (nine lengths back to Streets Of Newyork). He may go for the McManus bumper at Limerick next and then he might go to Punchestown. He is a big weak horse but he's all class. He is a super leaper, he jumps like a stag and he could have a huge future over jumps. D K Weld
After race at Leopardstown Sun, 9th Jan, 2011 (1st) Waaheb is still a bit weak and immature and he's not a Cheltenham bumper horse. He'll run next in Limerick's Champion Four Year Old Bumper, a race we've won a few times, but jumping is his forte. He has been well schooled and will make a nice horse next Autumn. D K Weld

Une Artiste. she won the Fred Winter of 127 doubt if there is much juice in her current mark.

Kaylif needs it soft

Llewellyn said: “He loves it soft and he also loves a stiff track like Ascot.

“Heavy ground is ideal for him and I suppose we could find a race for him at Cheltenham if it does come up soft.”

Cant find much on Calculated Risk talked about as Triumph Horse last year

"He certainly could be a Triumph horse and I think he'll win plenty of races. I just hope the ground dries out a bit for him at Huntingdon."

Not jumping off page anyway.


Last year
"He certainly could be a Triumph horse and I think he'll win plenty of races. I just hope the ground dries out a bit for him at Huntingdon."

Fook it statto decided to back creepy 33s with Stan James only 16s with the Sponsor

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