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2014 Albert Bartlett

Jonjo has had two runners in this and both won.

Mountain Tunes 33s ??? Hardly good enough ?



Jonjo O’Neill’s history-making hurdler Mountain Tunes is among a raft of young horses trained in Gloucestershire being aimed at the Cheltenham Festival.

The five-year-old earned his place in sporting folklore when he carried champion jockey AP McCoy to the 4,000th jumps victory of his career at Towcester in November.

O’Neill has given Mountain Tunes the chance to gain another momentous success by giving him an entry in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle over three miles at the March showpiece.

Mountain Tunes could be joined in the line-up by stablemate Flemenson, who won his first race for O’Neill and was a close second last time out at Exeter.

The Temple Guiting trainer has won the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle twice, with Black Jack Ketchum in 2006 and Wichita Lineman in 2007.
 
Flemenson might be if interest in a handicap - has a good rep from p2p circuit if my memory is right ?
 
skippymac6 said:
Both would be more Neptune horses I'd say RC. Especially Red Sherlock...
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That is what I thought. Think there must be an angle on this market. Every feckin blogger in the country analyses the Supreme to death but no one looks at this :mad:

Kings Palace a worthy favourite and Pipe unlikely to run his best ones against one another. Liquidator to Supreme ?
 
Mike Cattermole just said Kings Palace can put it up to Faugheen in this race on RTE.

Hope he is right. With Clondaw Court out might be a possibility ( that is pocket talk).
 
Briar Hill here and Faugheen for the Neptune surely. Vautour is the Supreme horse (Ted said he was on a 12s :D)
 
Had a look at this but none the wiser.

Kings Palace and Briar Hill the top two. Captain Cutter the only other horse likely to go off at a single figure price. Everything else 20/1 + on betfair.
 
I'll do the copying this time :p

2014-02-13 13:15:00

Of the 3 Grade 1 novice hurdles, the Albert Bartlett has been the most predictable. Brave Inca was the last favourite to win the Supreme a decade ago (at 7/2), since which only 3 winners have started at single figure prices. The Neptune has been in the middle with two favourites, (Simonsig at 2/1 and Mikael D’Haguenet at 5/2,) winning in the last decade and two winners going off at a double figure price.

In the Albert Bartlett 4 favourites have gone in – At Fishers Cross (11/8), Bobs Worth (15/8), Wichita Lineman (11/8) and Black Jack Ketchum (evens,) with only one winner going off at a double figure price. I think there are two main reasons for this. Firstly, the race is less prestigious, (only became a Grade 1 in 2008,) and the field tends to have much less depth. Secondly, they go that much slower which gives the best horses more chance not to get into trouble in running.

It’s therefore not been a race where it’s paid to try to be too clever. I’ll always work on a value basis, but there are some races where their nature lends more to backing something nearer the front of the market.

There are 12 at 20/1 or shorter and plenty we can discount for ante-post purposes. Faugheen (14/1) is apparently heading for the Neptune, (even after the same connections Clondaw Court was scratched, there doesn’t seem to have been a change of plan.) Red Sherlock (14/1) and Royal Boy (20/1) also both run in the Neptune.

Of the remaining 9 there are a number who have other feasible targets. Deputy Dan (16/1) has been progressive, winning a Grade 2 at Warwick last time, (2m5f, heavy.) With favourite Rathvinden falling just as it was getting interesting, it’s hard to evaluate that form. His progression has coincided with heavy ground and whilst he has form on good to soft, his breeding suggests he could be a mudlark. Oliver Sherwood has said he’s keeping his options open, but he’s clearly hoping for soft ground so he can run Deputy Dan in the Neptune - so he can’t be backed ante-post for this.

Rathvinden (20/1) then ran a good race to be 2½l 2nd to Red Sherlock (who received 3lb) at Cheltenham. On the heavy ground there he looked to be outstayed over an extended 2m4f and he doesn’t obviously look like he wants 3m at this stage. It’s not clear how Willie Mullins will shuffle his pack but the likes of Briar Hill and Sure Reef look more obvious candidates for this, for all they’re in the same ownership. He’s therefore another who can’t be backed ante-post.

Champagne West (20/1) beat Deputy Dan 1l in December and has won off 123 and then in a novice since. Having qualified, the plan was the Pertemps Final. However, Philip Hobbs was trying to get him up to 137 as that was the mark he guesstimated he’d need to get a run – but he’s been hiked to 145. Given how well in you need to be to win the Pertemps Final, and that the highest mark given to an Albert Bartlett winner so far is 154, it might make sense for him to take his chance here, especially as the yard now has Fingal Bay as a Pertemps Final possible. He’s one to keep an eye on.

Urban Hymn (20/1) has always had a big reputation and started to fulfill it last time in the Grade 2 River Don, (extended 3m, soft,) when chinning Blakemount. He’s seen as a chaser for next season and with Oscar Rock in the same ownership its looking as if will run in the Neptune or bypass the Festival. I’m not sure whether he’d be effective on good ground.

Blakemount (20/1) was only a short head behind Urban Hymn in the River Don on soft ground, and being by Presenting you’d imagine he might well improve if getting a sound surface in this. 3m looks to suit and he has each-way prospects, without having exuded star quality as yet.

Briar Hill (5/1) was an impressive winner of the Bumper at last season’s Festival. He’s 3/3 over hurdles, having started at between 1/3 and 1/9. He’s made hard work of beating Azorian by 4l, (subsequently beaten miles by Faugheen and Vautour,) and Apache Jack, both over 2½m. He may just be lazy and only do enough, but last year’s Festival Bumper hasn’t worked out well and he might just have outstayed a substandard field. He could be anything, but he’s priced up on his Festival win and having a string of 1s next to his name. I’m open minded about how good he’ll turn out to be and, even in what’s looking a threadbare field, he’s not a betting proposition.

Sure Reef (16/1) pulled very hard last time when winning a Grade 2 at Leopardstown and Willie Mullins was understandably concerned that he wouldn’t settle in this. Being in the same ownership as Briar Hill, its possible he’ll go for the Neptune. He may fall between two stools – not quick enough for the Neptune, but not settling well enough for the Albert Bartlett.

The favourite is King’s Palace (7/2) and you couldn’t see a better jumper in a novice race. He’s fast and accurate but his form is starting to unravel. The 4 horses that chased him home last time have all been well beaten since, and whilst Creepy (who chased him home in October) won a Grade 2 next time, he’s been thrashed three times since. David Pipe has described him as a Welsh National horse and I’m not sure he’s got the class for this. I certainly wouldn’t be backing him ante-post at a skinny price.

Captain Cutter (10/1) brings Grade 1 form to the table from the Challow and beat King’s Palace in a bumper, (despite racing very wide and King’s Palace having had the advantage of a run). I’d thought that there would be the usual post-Challow debate about whether the winner should go for the Neptune, but this year commons sense appears to have prevailed and the Albert Bartlett is the target.

In Faugheen’s likely absence, I think Captain Cutter is the most talented horse in this. He was well on top of some classy novices in the Challow and, whilst he doesn’t yet jump as well as King’s Palace, he’s achieved more over hurdles and the feeling is that there’s much more to come. He’s versatile as to ground conditions and the only downside is that he’s been a bit fragile in the past - but the Henderson team appear to have had a pretty clear run with him this time.

It wasn’t until I really went through the market that I realised how few of these look likely to run, and how weak a race it could quickly turn into. I can see his price contracting significantly over the next month as the race takes shape. Ideally he’d be backable non runner-no bet, but based on last year there’s another 10 days before that’s going to be available – and I’d rather go in now ante-post and secure what looks a good price.

Despite it being a race for short priced horses, one that’s interesting at a big price is Gilt Shadow (40/1). He was a good 2nd to The Liquidator in the Grade 1 Bumper at the Punchestown Festival. He bolted up on his hurdles debut and went off 9/2 for the Grade 1 Royal Bond, but didn’t fire. Given a break, he was supposed to have needed the run when 3¼l 3rd to Sure Reef (who received 3lb) in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown over 2½m. That Leopardstown race is usually a strong contest and he was too keen off a slow early pace, before looking to blow up. It’s not clear if he goes to the Festival yet, and if he does whether he runs in this or the Neptune. He’s one to look at once non runner, no bet is available.

1pt Captain Cutter to win the Albert Bartlett @ 10/1
 
Good tip IMO. The champ has a great record in this too.
 
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014
The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, which is run over 3 miles, was first run as a grade 2 in 2005 but was elevated to grade 1 status in 2008. There will be many horses that will hold entries in this as well as the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and so the picture for this race will become clearer once the declarations for the Neptune come out.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 8 runnings:

Age
5yo: 1-5-33
6yo: 5-5-67
7yo: 3-4-43
8yo+: 0-4-18
No strong age trends, 8 of 9 winners (last 9) have been aged 6 or 7 but considering they have represented around 68.5 of the total runners that is not surprising.

Gender
Mares (0-1-8) have gained 1 place from their 8 runners, all of whom were priced 12/1 or above.

Breeding
Irish bred: 7-13-112
French bred: 2-2-19
British bred: 0-2-26
German bred: 0-1-3
American bred: 0-0-2
Irish bred have won 7 of 9 however they have represented 69.1% of total runners whereas French breds have a proportionally better record, winning 2 of 9 from 11.7% of total runners.
King's Theatre progeny: 10P612 (2-1-6) - one other winner out of a King's Theatre mare
Video Rock progeny: 11 (2-0-2)
Oscar progeny: 09160P841 (2-0-9)
Bob Back progeny: 412 (1-1-3)
Presenting progeny: 97001 (1-0-5)
Roselier progeny: 33P (0-2-3)
Old Vic progeny: P203 (0-2-4) - one winner out of an Old Vic mare

Recent/Past Form
8 of 9 winners finished in the first 2 last time (exception was 4th in the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle against seasoned hurdlers)
9 of 9 winners posted their highest RPR in last 2 starts
8 of 9 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time
8 of 9 winners had run 3 to 6 times over hurdles in GB and Ire
7 of 9 winners had won a graded hurdle (2 exceptions placed in a grade 2)
9 of 9 winners had won over 2M 4F+
8 of 9 winners (last 7) had not run on the flat (exception had run in non-thoroughbred races in France)
5 of 7 British-trained winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception was 7th in previous season's Triumph Hurdle & other was having course start)

Other Races
Classic Novice Hurdle winner (Red Sherlock): 1F11 (3-0-4)
Bristol Novice Hurdle winner (Kings Palace): 3141P2 (2-2-6)
Challow Novice Hurdle winner (Captain Cutter): 31 (1-1-2)
Hyde Novice Hurdle winner: 31P4 (1-1-4)
Hyde Novice Hurdle highest placed finisher to run in this: 3111P4 (3-1-6)
Prestige Novice Hurdle winner: 81 (1-0-2)
Liberty Insurance Novice Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 1PU (1-0-3)
Synergy Security Novice Hurdle winner (Sure Reef): 022 (0-2-3)
Synergy Security Novice Hurdle highest finisher to run in this: 032162U (1-3-7)
Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Briar Hill): 3P2 (0-2-3)
Leamington Novice Hurdle winner (Deputy Dan): 83 (0-1-2)
Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Briar Hill): 0P (0-0-2)
Cork Stayers Novice Hurdle winner (The Job Is Right): 06 (0-0-2)
W.T. O'Grady Memorial EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Clondaw Court): 47 (0-0-2)
River Don Novice Hurdle winner (Urban Hymn): F858 (0-0-4)
4 of 9 winners ran in the Hyde Novice Hurdle, finishing 1223
4 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the Classic Novice Hurdle, finishing 6111
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the Bristol Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the Prestige Novice Hurdle, finishing 21

Trainers
Jonjo O’Neill (2-0-2) has seen both his runners taste success in this race (2006 & 2007).
Nicky Henderson (1-1-6) trained the first 2 home in 2011 while Alan King (1-1-9) has also gained a win and a place from his runners in this.
Rebecca Curtis (1-0-5) won the race last year with At Fishers Cross.
Paul Nicholls (0-3-8) has saddled a placed finisher in 3 of the last 6 runnings, while Willie Mullins (0-3-11) has had filled a place in 3 of last 5 renewals.
Colin Tizzard (0-1-4), Emma Lavelle (0-1-4) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-8) have each saddled a placed finisher in one of the last 3 runnings.
Irish trained horses (2-6-44) have a fair record but if you remove Charles Byrnes’ runners their record becomes 1-4-39.

Price
8 of 9 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from first 5 in the betting
Favourites (4-2-9) have won 4 of the 9 runnings but show a level stakes profit of 0.63.


Summary:

Based on the trends from the 9 previous runnings you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 or 7
- Irish or French bred
- Ideally sired by King's Theatre, Oscar, Video Rock or Bob Back
- Finished in first 2 last time out
- Posted an RPR of 145+ last time
- Had 3 to 6 runs over hurdles in GB & Ire
- Has won a graded hurdle
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Finished in first 3 in Hyde Novice Hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Bristol, Prestige and/or Classic Novice Hurdle
- Had not run on the flat
- Course winner (or trained in Ireland)
- Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
- Priced 9/1 or less

http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...artlett-novices-hurdle-trends-2014-1392074984
 
In total agreement with this lad after watching yesterdays racing

A Betting Man ‏@A_Betting_Man 12h
Can Tom Scudamore be trusted to get it right from the front on KINGS PALACE in the Albert Bartlett #CheltFest ..I could not be a backer atp
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Captain Cutter and Briar Hill are the obvious alternatives but there still seems to be some debate about the race Briar Hill will run in. Happy to take 10s each way on Captain Cutter. Jockey owner and trainer stats are all a positive. Hope Timmy gets back for Red Sherlock too.
 
Rhinestone Cowboy said:
In total agreement with this lad after watching yesterdays racing



Captain Cutter and Briar Hill are the obvious alternatives but there still seems to be some debate about the race Briar Hill will run in. Happy to take 10s each way on Captain Cutter. Jockey owner and trainer stats are all a positive. Hope Timmy gets back for Red Sherlock too.
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Havent heard anything about Timmy. Shoulder giving him a lot of bother. I suppose Scudamore could ride Red Sherlock in Neptune and they could send the £450k horse handicapping. All makes Faugheen a bigger certainty.
 
Donn

Sure Reef (Trainer: Willie Mullins)

Speak of Willie Mullins' novice hurdlers and you speak of Faugheen, Briar Hill, Vautour, Wicklow Brave. You might have to go a fair way down the list before you get to Sure Reef.

Winner of three handicaps on the Flat for Michael Halford in 2012 and ending that season with a rating of 90, the Choisir gelding's hurdling career got off to an inauspicious start when he unseated his rider at the first flight at Punchestown last November.

He has won his only two races since, however. He stayed on nicely to win his maiden hurdle over two and a half miles at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival, and he stepped forward from that to win a Grade 2 contest over the same course and distance on Irish Champion Hurdle day.

There was a lot to like about that performance. He was keener than ideal through the early stages of the race, and he got a little left behind with a deliberate jump at the second last as the pace quickened. Last of the six runners as they rounded the home turn, he stayed on gallantly on the near side to get up and win by three parts of a length, with two useful performers in Moonshine Lad and Gilt Shadow behind him in second and third.

There is lots of stamina on his dam's side, but he is by Choisir and he does not lack gears, as he showed last time at Leopardstown, picking up impressively off what was a sedate early pace. He could be a Neptune horse or he could be an Albert Bartlett horse but, wherever he goes, it might be worthwhile keeping him on your list.
 
Bg1m_1dCMAENsMW.jpg
 
Interesting graded novice at Clonmel this afternoon.

The Job is Right was 5L behind Faugheen giving him 3lbs weight at Christmas. RP at the time said he could be the best staying novice in Ireland not trained by Willie Mullins. Gives weight all around today. Wait for the Faugheen drift if he flops. :p

Moonshine Lad and Double Irish both run today and still in here too.
 
Rhinestone Cowboy said:
Interesting graded novice at Clonmel this afternoon.

The Job is Right was 5L behind Faugheen giving him 3lbs weight at Christmas. RP at the time said he could be the best staying novice in Ireland not trained by Willie Mullins. Gives weight all around today. Wait for the Faugheen drift if he flops. :p

Moonshine Lad and Double Irish both run today and still in here too.
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No clues there.
 
Nicholls

Port Melon will line up in the Albert Bartlett and is a real dark horse! #AskPaulNicholls
 
Cogry
Nigel Twiston-Davies said: "Cogry will go for the Albert Bartlett, even though he is a bit lowly rated for the race. He has won two novice hurdles and is very nice. He has got a good chance and is by the same sire - King's Theatre - as The New One."
 
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