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2026 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Even if Stumptown didn't make it, and Favori become top weight, still not sure J'Arrive would run.

Favori won off 149 in January and was given a BHA performance figure of 157. Makes sense he's gonna get a chunk in tax, my guess is up to circa 155. This would make the lowest weight 136. While J'Arrive could then run, he'd still be around 10lbs out the handicap. If I was Emmet, I think I'd let him take his chances in the Kim Muir where he'd run off 126 (BHA performance figure for his January run was 126 so unlikely to face any tax).
 
Thanks for the explanations. Obviously, I didn't put enough thought in. I actually thought he did well last time given that he was taken by the French horse while the winner just sat in behind. A more conservative ride and I can have seen some improvement, but it seems that won't happen. Will have to reassess for the Kim Muir. Would the Kim Muir on good to soft be enough of a test? He looks a strong stayer.
 
jrjr said:
Even if Stumptown didn't make it, and Favori become top weight, still not sure J'Arrive would run.

Favori won off 149 in January and was given a BHA performance figure of 157. Makes sense he's gonna get a chunk in tax, my guess is up to circa 155. This would make the lowest weight 136. While J'Arrive could then run, he'd still be around 10lbs out the handicap. If I was Emmet, I think I'd let him take his chances in the Kim Muir where he'd run off 126 (BHA performance figure for his January run was 126 so unlikely to face any tax).
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FDC got 157 in National weights so should be same for the XC.
 
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Fair enough, and good :)
 
Wonder if Waterford whispers is going under the radar for here?

Not hiding in the market now but only rated 130 Irish, we tend to see those that run well in the pile over further in the coming seasons. If memory serves this tends to be the race that horses run over the trip they necessarily haven’t run at or close to before, presumably because it’s amateurs and JP or Giggs tend to have the best amateurs riding (excluding Patrick of course).
 
Craigy14 said:
Wonder if Waterford whispers is going under the radar for here?

Not hiding in the market now but only rated 130 Irish, we tend to see those that run well in the pile over further in the coming seasons. If memory serves this tends to be the race that horses run over the trip they necessarily haven’t run at or close to before, presumably because it’s amateurs and JP or Giggs tend to have the best amateurs riding (excluding Patrick of course).
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Uhavemeinstitches looks more interesting especially given the trainer.
Just the one entry also.
 
Kevloaf said:
Don't they make a point of saying the National Weight is it's own entity?
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Usually an excuse to compress some of the top weights (which I think they have done for IAM and Nick Rockett) as opposed to raising anyone unfairly.

Only one they've really raised is Spanish Harlem as the UK handicapper thinks he would have won the Thysetes whereas the Irish thought he would come third. - Annoying as I was planning on backing
 
Hurricane fly said:
Usually an excuse to compress some of the top weights (which I think they have done for IAM and Nick Rockett) as opposed to raising anyone unfairly.

Only one they've really raised is Spanish Harlem as the UK handicapper thinks he would have won the Thysetes whereas the Irish thought he would come third. - Annoying as I was planning on backing
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You'd be fuming if you were connections - up 9lb and not a penny in prize money to show for it.
 
Quevega said:
Uhavemeinstitches looks more interesting especially given the trainer.
Just the one entry also.
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Good point, never heard of the horse so didn’t even know the colours till looked at RP earlier :ROFLMAO:

Agree though very interesting indeed, third to Jade and The Big Westener as well reads well.
 
Goʻt to highlight famous bridge in this....4th ultima off 139..6th last year 142
needs more of a trip than 3ms..won the grand national trial last year 3m4f 138. Is now 132 and now entered in the kim muir, new course over further is what he needs, bring on the mud and there wont be many ahead of him at the finish.
 
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…..trend analysis updated in post #1.
 
Big Dave Jennings jumping on the bandwagon now too.

Is Roque a dark horse in Kim Muir?
Ireland has dominated most festival events of late but the Kim Muir, in particular, has been a greenwash.
The last three winners have all been Irish, as have six of the last seven, with 40-1 shocker Chambard being the odd one out in 2022.
Jeriko Du Reponet is the obvious favourite after he was dropped to a mark of 145 following his unusual effort at Windsor and, of course, he could be a cut above everything. But, at the same time, 4-1 is skimpy enough three weeks away from the race.
There will be something from Ireland that will tumble down the market and the one punters could latch on to is Kim Roque.
He has the option of the Ultima and the Jack Richards as well, but the Kim Muir could be right up his street as he's a thoroughly unexposed stayer who won't go off at 16-1 should it prove to be his preferred option.

Best price 16s NRNB now, suspect he'll go off plenty shorter than that still, would certainly be single figs imo.

50s top price ante put up 🙏
 
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Backed KR on both Cheltenham runs this season and he just doesn't jump well enough for me to win a big handicap. He's actually gone up in weight for his troubles too which I don't get ?
 
Lobos said:
Backed KR on both Cheltenham runs this season and he just doesn't jump well enough for me to win a big handicap. He's actually gone up in weight for his troubles too which I don't get ?
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What was wrong with his jumping @ Leopardstown?

*rewatching as i send this, don't recall any issues
 
Jumping certainly as asset to Kim Roque in Leopardstown - glided over them.

3rd best on lengths gained jumping in the field too..
 
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