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2026 Novice Chasers

Given the recent chat about RPR's this will mean little to some, but anyway:

Final Demand RPR 154
Kopek Des Bordes RPR 156
Lulamba RPR 145
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Given the recent chat about RPR's this will mean little to some, but anyway:

Final Demand RPR 154
Kopek Des Bordes RPR 156
Lulamba RPR 145
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I'd love to get a breakdown of how they come up with them, do they do that or not?

Lulamba beats the 148 rated Salver 10L - 145
Kopek beats the 120 rated Shraheen 19L - 156

I know RPRs are different to ORs, but I still can't get my head round it :ROFLMAO:

I'd have also given Final Demand a higher 'score' than Kopek personally.
 
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darlojim said:
I'd love to get a breakdown of how they come up with them, do they do that or not?

Lulamba beats the 148 rated Salver 10L - 145
Kopek beats the 120 rated Shraheen 19L - 156

I know RPRs are different to ORs, but I still can't get my head round it :ROFLMAO:

I'd have also given Final Demand a higher 'score' than Kopek personally.
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Yes, a bit of guessswork involved...

They have 2nd placed Lovely Hurling running 4lb below his hurdles RPR
They have 3rd placed Shraheen running 3lb above his hurdles RPR
They have 4th placed Its Bilbo running 7lb below his hurdles RPR

If they push up Lovely Hurling and Its Bilbo then they get too much improvement from Shraheen, if they push down Shahreen then they get both Lovely Hurling and Its Bilbo running quite a way behind what they believe they are capable of over hurdles. So, for me its a bit of a compromise.

On top of this KDB should have received a rating of 149 based on the winning distance but they seem to have given him a 7lb uplift for ease of win. This puts him only 4lb below his best hurdles RPR.

Final Demand should have received a rating of 144 based on his winning distance but they seem to have given him a 10lb uplift for ease of win. This puts him only 2lb below his best hurdles RPR.

2nd placed Wingmen got a rating 7lb below his hurdles RPR
3rd placed Now Is The Hour got a rating 19lb below his best chase RPR.
4th placed Butch Cassidy got a rating 15lb below his best hurdles RPR

FWIW, my view on it is that they have rated the KDB race a few pounds too high (especially given that the 2nd wasn't given an overly strenuous ride) and I too would have rated Final Demand performance (on the day) as higher. Either way, they have both set a fairly daunting bar for their respective Festival races.
 
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July Flower higher than Lulamba which seems fair as a better race and she actually jumped some fences 😂
 
Just to add re Lulamba, that would have been a very difficult race to rate given i) not all the fences were jumped, ii) the 2nd was given an educational ride, iii) the third was running over a shorter trip than ideal on quick enough ground and iv) the 4th's jumping fell apart a bit late on.

They had the 5th placed Largy Belter running to a rating 12lb better than on his debut when a similar last of 5 behind Lump Sum and it would be difficult to argue that he should be much higher. This leads to the other ratings (Tripoli Flyer 14lb below hurdles best, Salver 12lb blow hurdles best, Fingle Bridge equal to hurdles best - the latter to me is a bit questionable given his ride). That leaves Lulamba with a rating of 145, 9lb below his hurdles rating - getting 4lb extra for ease of win on top of his winning distance (have to remember he received 8lb here which he wont get at Cheltenham). Its hard to rate it much higher to be honest though the race was far from satisfactory.
 
Don’t think I will be taking much notice of those ratings when thinking of having a bet, as Prestbury said, bit of guesswork, or possibly a bit more than a bit!!
 
darlojim said:
I'd love to get a breakdown of how they come up with them, do they do that or not?

Lulamba beats the 148 rated Salver 10L - 145
Kopek beats the 120 rated Shraheen 19L - 156

I know RPRs are different to ORs, but I still can't get my head round it :ROFLMAO:

I'd have also given Final Demand a higher 'score' than Kopek personally.
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I will do the Lulamba race:

The assumption is Salver has run below form. If he has run to his level of 149 RPR over hurdles from the time before then it means the 139 rated Fingle Bridge has improved immensely. Not likely. Considering first run of season etc for Fingle Bridge then they believe he has run to a similar level to how he finished last season over hurdles. However, likely the drop in trip didn't suit Salver whilst it is easier to side on horses more likely to run below par than to be peaking. We also have Tripoli Flyer who has chase experience albeit when unseating three out previously. He was 2 lengths off the winner at the time who got a 135 for winning and the 2 3/4 lengths 2nd got 129 so assuming he maintained that 2 length margin would of seen him run to around 130 as well.

Also worth remembering again that Lulamba carried 8lb less weight which is factored into his rating. I expect many of these ratings will change as the season goes on and we have stronger lines of form to compare with.
 
So for those that do go by RPR's are we saying that Lulamba also falls below the average required on seasonal debut to win the Arkle ? (Like July Flower)
 
If you need to look at and consider at any length the RPR's for horses like Final Demand and Kopek des Bordes, after running in beginner chases then this game is not for you. IMO.
They literally mean nothing. Anyone who watches racing and bets antepost could see they looked class over a fence and the engines they demonstrated as hurdlers were still there.

For example, had either been given ratings in the 140's, would anyone seriously have thought worse of either horse ?

It's the same with regards July Flower and her relatively conservative RPR for winning a graded race at Cheltenham.

There's probably 2 points of view with that arkle trial IMO. Either the first 2 are improving and likely to improve on their hurdle exploits over fences and so the form is probably decent enough, or you don;t rate it that highly.
The RPR given means jackshit IMO.
You'll either be wrong on the form of that race going forward or it will be proven solid enough or it'll be somewhere in the middle :ROFLMAO:

All of that taken into account and then you have to consider if the price offered on any of those horses offers value as a bet right now.
I'd already backed July Flower but she was still available at 25-1 after the race and I thought that was perfectly acceptable as a bet.

I personally think Kopek's price ain't that bad (just too short for my style of antepost betting at this time) as he could easily be odds on come the day, but that's mainly cos I'm not convinced with Lulamba just yet. If Lulamba improves and dominate his races over here then that may hold the price of Kopek (to a point)

Loads of shit can happen yet though, including falls, upsets and injury.

Faultless start for the 2 Mullins horses though IMO.
 
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Lobos said:
So for those that do go by RPR's are we saying that Lulamba also falls below the average required on seasonal debut to win the Arkle ? (Like July Flower)
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I think the issue with taking that view is that if the form proves to be better than they've rated it at present. (Which definitely happens)
Then Don't Panic, as they'll up the rating retrospectively if she wins the arkle.:ROFLMAO:
It's like a time travelling rating system. (been watching Dark on Netflix, proper headfuck that is)
 
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Quevega said:
If you need to look at and consider at any length the RPR's for horses like Final Demand and Kopek des Bordes, after running in beginner chases then this game is not for you. IMO.
They literally mean nothing. Anyone who watches racing and bets antepost could see they looked class over a fence and the engines they demonstrated as hurdlers were still there.
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Pretty much spot on, if some numbers thrown up by whoknows convinces you above what you have seen & the form you can look through, then you really should stick to bingo or some other game of chance.

Dark is amazing btw Q, last season will take you out though, had to watch it a few times before it sat properly.
 
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Quevega said:
I think the issue with taking that view is that if the form proves to be better than they've rated it at present. (Which definitely happens)
Then Don't Panic, as they'll up the rating retrospectively if she wins the arkle.:ROFLMAO:
It's like a time travelling rating system. (been watching Dark on Netflix, proper headfuck that is)
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There are definitely grounds for Lulambas rating to increase in time with the runner up not put in the race whilst looking an improver for a fence and the 3rd not seeming to match his hurdles form at a trip short of his best. The problem for the Lulamba RPR is being a 4yo getting 8lb allowance taking on just a couple with chase experience and only one with a credited RPR.
 
Lobos said:
So for those that do go by RPR's are we saying that Lulamba also falls below the average required on seasonal debut to win the Arkle ? (Like July Flower)
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If he wins the Arkle then the rating for his seasonal debut will be magically increased and hey presto he will have met the seasonal debut requirement - and then we roll on to next year!

Ratings are fine - they are just anther piece of information (and in the case of novices not much more than someone's opinion). But you cant be dogmatic about something that you know is highly likely to change. As Q says above, the eye test tells you that these are class horses and you don't need someone's opinion on a number to tell you that. Don't get hung up on whether a rating (especially RPR) is a few lbs too high or too low - thats always within their area of tolerance (esp. for novices).
 
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Does anyone think that the eye test shows that Lulamba could win an arkle?
Specsavers this way
 
Prestbury said:
If he wins the Arkle then the rating for his seasonal debut will be magically increased and hey presto he will have met the seasonal debut requirement - and then we roll on to next year!

Ratings are fine - they are just anther piece of information (and in the case of novices not much more than someone's opinion). But you cant be dogmatic about something that you know is highly likely to change. As Q says above, the eye test tells you that these are class horses and you don't need someone's opinion on a number to tell you that. Don't get hung up on whether a rating (especially RPR) is a few lbs too high or too low - thats always within their area of tolerance (esp. for novices).
Click to expand...
Put The Kettle On??
 
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