I think Ruby Walsh is passing on his lack of confidence and making good horses doubt themselves, maybe its time ruby retires.
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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2019
- Thread starter thistlecracker
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SeanRock
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mayo
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I think he has earned the right to call that himself and hopefully injury doesn't get in the way first.
Paul Townend is riding particularly well but Ruby is almost an assistant trainer there
charlie
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Can't Catch Me
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Definitely looked to be carrying an injury late on to my eyes .... the over reach at the 3rd would explain it. Seem to drag his heels on one down the back which suggested so, and also was carrying his tail slightly awkwardly.
Jumped like he was feeling something for much of the race I think.
Jumped like he was feeling something for much of the race I think.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“Footpad has an overreach in front. He might have got it when he made the mistake (at the third fence). That’s enough to stop a fluent jumper from jumping. He was very sore when he jogged in the stable yard after cooling down” <a href="https://twitter.com/WillieMullinsNH?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@WillieMullinsNH</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/NaasRacecourse?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NaasRacecourse</a></p>— Irishracing.com Live (@IrishRacing365) <a href="https://twitter.com/IrishRacing365/status/1061248406646149121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Good photo of him at the fence!
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How did Ruby & Footpad survive this mistake at 3rd fence <a href="https://twitter.com/NaasRacecourse?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NaasRacecourse</a> before tipping up at final obstacle in race won by Saint Calvados. <br>(c)<a href="https://t.co/voWGTccgic">https://t.co/voWGTccgic</a> <a href="https://t.co/iKLU7L3aDj">pic.twitter.com/iKLU7L3aDj</a></p>— Pat Healy (@patcashhealy) <a href="https://twitter.com/patcashhealy/status/1061242282547077125?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Good photo of him at the fence!
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How did Ruby & Footpad survive this mistake at 3rd fence <a href="https://twitter.com/NaasRacecourse?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NaasRacecourse</a> before tipping up at final obstacle in race won by Saint Calvados. <br>(c)<a href="https://t.co/voWGTccgic">https://t.co/voWGTccgic</a> <a href="https://t.co/iKLU7L3aDj">pic.twitter.com/iKLU7L3aDj</a></p>— Pat Healy (@patcashhealy) <a href="https://twitter.com/patcashhealy/status/1061242282547077125?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Quevega
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That is ridiculous!
For a horse than is "foot perfect" with hjis jumping which everybody in the media keeps saying, made a few very high profile mistakes!
Old Vic
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Nope. Third fence at 2017 Champion Chase might have left a mark though - was lame post race.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Wow!
I'd say he was just a bit rusty having re-watched the race. Certainly would not write him off for one run!
Faugheen_Machine
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You couldn't write him off but he jumped like he was injured from early in the race and that's how it has turned out. Put a line through that run. Hopefully he returns fit and well before too long.
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jack1092
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Footpad jumped badly, injured himself, and wasn't going to win. Ruby nothing to blame.
Hopefully he comes back 100% and his jumping doesn't start causing him problems. I haven't seen him in the flesh, but he doesn't look massive?
Hopefully he comes back 100% and his jumping doesn't start causing him problems. I haven't seen him in the flesh, but he doesn't look massive?
The Beast
Banned
My immeidate thought was he got beat by a pacier horse and needs stepping up in trip. Then I hear about the overreach. Im prepared to give him another chance at 2m before I comment again about likely destination.
Thanks jono,
Thanks scooby - certainly a nice each way bet at this stage.
Thanks Quevega - I've always been told to ignore anything said before BUT though
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"50/1 is a disrespectful price." I assume nobody else backed Saint Calvados with me then? :highly_amused:
Perhaps I am too open with the amount of bets I have on here, or have been too quick to advocate the fact I'd happily 'build a book' in certain races - but that isn't the case the majority of the time!. I use the "book" method in races that either lend themselves to it where it makes mathimatical sense and I don't have a very strong opinion OR I have gotten myself in a bit of a mess with the race and it's the most likely way I'll still be able to come out of the race with a profit.
I do have a strong opinion in this race, and it's that Altior will win the race if he turns up.
Every horse has his price - In stark contrast to last season, I haven't got Footpad backed ante post for this season at all. I don't think he's been a backable price even before he won the Arkle so well. The fact hios target isn't certain was a big factor, but the price has been shorter than it perhaps should be all summer. I am not saying he'd have no chance or wouldn't go off shorter, but 5/1 isn't a price I'd think about this far out. On the day, if Footpad was 5/1 2nd fav in the CC, it'd be max each way bet material, but ante post and day-of-the-race are very different beasts.
I have 2 points on Altior - which was a double with Enable (posted on here pre-Arc) at 15.5/1
I have 1 pt e/w on Saint Calvados at 50/1
I have a "1 pt free bet" on Great Field at 25/1
Perfectly happy with that at the moment... but (thinking out loud) there are only 17 horses quoted in the market - This race must have potential to become a "book" race for me...
So with 4 points invested so far, and (unless I'm mistaken - feel free to correct me) not much chance of anything left field appearing in the race that isn't quoted below...? I'll go through the market with my thoughts on them...
Altior11/8 - Already backed @ 15.5/1 (double with Enable posted pre-Arc) for a win of 33 pts
Footpad 5/1 - Will obviously need to hear that he's okay after today and back on track. I'm not sure they'll go up in trip but he isn't a betting prospect until we hear some updates.
Saint Calvados 16/1 - Already backed @ 50/1 for a win of 62 pts or place of 11 pts
Un De Sceaux 16/1 - I love Un De Sceaux, I think he'd have given Altior an incredible race in last seasons renewal on that ground. Zero percent chance I'd back him ante post as it's unlikely to be his target, but I would say I'm 99% likely to back him when NRNB comes out, because he'll only run on Soft/Heavy ground and no doubt will be priced up at an each way price that doesn't factor that in.
Great Field 20/1 - Backed with "free bet stake" for a win of 25 pts
Fox Norton 25/1 - Tizzard defo aiming him at 2 mile chases (from his Stable Tour) and isn't expected to return until December with a view to the Spring Festivals. I've been very much AGAINST this horse the last two festivals and now that he's coming back from injury sustained in the KG on Boxing Day I don't think I'll be changing that view this season. He couldn't beat Altior when Altior was a novice and their careers have gone in different directions since then too. That said, he's a better horse than I've given him credit for over the last two years - you don't beat UDS if you're not. If he was 40/1 I'd probably back him each way.
Sceau Royal 25/1 - Surprised me last year winning the Henry VIII so well. Off since winning in January after missing the festival - I think he's the biggest danger to Saint Cavlados in terms of being the 'best behind Altior'.... he's never been a Spring horse and that'll always be in my mind. He is more unexposed that the others at this price in the market so perhaps is worthy of an each way play.
Min 25/1 - Clearly not as good as Altior, never has been, never will be BUT 25/1 would be way too big if he was a definite runner as an each way bet. He came second on merit last year, is not a superstar but is definitely a Grade 1 performer. I haven't backed him though because connections (in particular Ruby) keeps mentioning him up in trip if he settles better. I think he's Ryanair bound and the Paddy price reflects this. Douvan getting injured may have altered my thinking slightly, and if Footpad looks like going for the King George, Min would become a bet by default for me, as Great Field will have Barry on, and that;'d leave Mullins/Walsh at 25/1 which is too big in pretty much any race. Overall though, Min isn't a Champion Chase winner for me, so happy to not have him onside ante post.
Petit Mouchor 33/1 - Quite simply not up to the task. Likely to go up in trip this year because of that - I think to take the fact he did better than Saint Calvados in the Arkle despite them slitting each others throats would be an incredibly bold decision and I can't imagine me backing PM at any point for this race.
Diego Du Charmil 40/1 - He beat Petit Mouchor at Aintree last season, but as just stated, PM isn't on my mind as a Champion Chaser. I adore Paul Nicholls, he's superb - one of the things that make him so good though is the placing of his horses, and DDC will win races around the festival, rather than 'at it'. Saint Calvados destroyed him by 22L before the Arkle and SC was 50/1, when DDC is 40/1?! What an absolute rick in the market that was!
Gods Own/Special Tiara/Politilogue 50/1 - I really like all three of horses in general terms. ST was lucky Douvan didn't fire on the day, but did well to hold off Fox Norton. That was definitely his day in the sun though, too long in the tootrh to consider. God's Own also has his best days behind him and will be 11 this time around. Politilogue has "the perfect" season last time around before getting beatn 4L by Altior on his reapperance then 23L in the CC - you'd assume he goes for the Ryanair, as he beat Min over 2m4f at Aintree. None of these 3 will be winning the Champion Chase
Brain Power/Cadmium/San Benedeto 66/1 - There isn't much to gain in knocking chances of 66/1 shots, but I haven't been tempted by any of these 3 at those odds. Brain Power needs to brush up the jumping and has mountains to find with Altior. Cadmium will need to take a huge leap next time out to get on my radar for this race and San Benedeto just won't ever be a Grade 1 horse on merit.
Ozzie The Oscar 100/1 - Placed in a county hurdle at 50/1 and was fancied to win at Exeter when God's Own battled well against him. He wouldn't be the worst 100/1 shot in the world but he'd probably be that price on the day if he ran!
No additional bets tonight
Thanks jono,
Thanks scooby - certainly a nice each way bet at this stage.
Thanks Quevega - I've always been told to ignore anything said before BUT though
------
"50/1 is a disrespectful price." I assume nobody else backed Saint Calvados with me then? :highly_amused:
Perhaps I am too open with the amount of bets I have on here, or have been too quick to advocate the fact I'd happily 'build a book' in certain races - but that isn't the case the majority of the time!. I use the "book" method in races that either lend themselves to it where it makes mathimatical sense and I don't have a very strong opinion OR I have gotten myself in a bit of a mess with the race and it's the most likely way I'll still be able to come out of the race with a profit.
I do have a strong opinion in this race, and it's that Altior will win the race if he turns up.
Every horse has his price - In stark contrast to last season, I haven't got Footpad backed ante post for this season at all. I don't think he's been a backable price even before he won the Arkle so well. The fact hios target isn't certain was a big factor, but the price has been shorter than it perhaps should be all summer. I am not saying he'd have no chance or wouldn't go off shorter, but 5/1 isn't a price I'd think about this far out. On the day, if Footpad was 5/1 2nd fav in the CC, it'd be max each way bet material, but ante post and day-of-the-race are very different beasts.
I have 2 points on Altior - which was a double with Enable (posted on here pre-Arc) at 15.5/1
I have 1 pt e/w on Saint Calvados at 50/1
I have a "1 pt free bet" on Great Field at 25/1
Perfectly happy with that at the moment... but (thinking out loud) there are only 17 horses quoted in the market - This race must have potential to become a "book" race for me...
So with 4 points invested so far, and (unless I'm mistaken - feel free to correct me) not much chance of anything left field appearing in the race that isn't quoted below...? I'll go through the market with my thoughts on them...
Altior11/8 - Already backed @ 15.5/1 (double with Enable posted pre-Arc) for a win of 33 pts
Footpad 5/1 - Will obviously need to hear that he's okay after today and back on track. I'm not sure they'll go up in trip but he isn't a betting prospect until we hear some updates.
Saint Calvados 16/1 - Already backed @ 50/1 for a win of 62 pts or place of 11 pts
Un De Sceaux 16/1 - I love Un De Sceaux, I think he'd have given Altior an incredible race in last seasons renewal on that ground. Zero percent chance I'd back him ante post as it's unlikely to be his target, but I would say I'm 99% likely to back him when NRNB comes out, because he'll only run on Soft/Heavy ground and no doubt will be priced up at an each way price that doesn't factor that in.
Great Field 20/1 - Backed with "free bet stake" for a win of 25 pts
Fox Norton 25/1 - Tizzard defo aiming him at 2 mile chases (from his Stable Tour) and isn't expected to return until December with a view to the Spring Festivals. I've been very much AGAINST this horse the last two festivals and now that he's coming back from injury sustained in the KG on Boxing Day I don't think I'll be changing that view this season. He couldn't beat Altior when Altior was a novice and their careers have gone in different directions since then too. That said, he's a better horse than I've given him credit for over the last two years - you don't beat UDS if you're not. If he was 40/1 I'd probably back him each way.
Sceau Royal 25/1 - Surprised me last year winning the Henry VIII so well. Off since winning in January after missing the festival - I think he's the biggest danger to Saint Cavlados in terms of being the 'best behind Altior'.... he's never been a Spring horse and that'll always be in my mind. He is more unexposed that the others at this price in the market so perhaps is worthy of an each way play.
Min 25/1 - Clearly not as good as Altior, never has been, never will be BUT 25/1 would be way too big if he was a definite runner as an each way bet. He came second on merit last year, is not a superstar but is definitely a Grade 1 performer. I haven't backed him though because connections (in particular Ruby) keeps mentioning him up in trip if he settles better. I think he's Ryanair bound and the Paddy price reflects this. Douvan getting injured may have altered my thinking slightly, and if Footpad looks like going for the King George, Min would become a bet by default for me, as Great Field will have Barry on, and that;'d leave Mullins/Walsh at 25/1 which is too big in pretty much any race. Overall though, Min isn't a Champion Chase winner for me, so happy to not have him onside ante post.
Petit Mouchor 33/1 - Quite simply not up to the task. Likely to go up in trip this year because of that - I think to take the fact he did better than Saint Calvados in the Arkle despite them slitting each others throats would be an incredibly bold decision and I can't imagine me backing PM at any point for this race.
Diego Du Charmil 40/1 - He beat Petit Mouchor at Aintree last season, but as just stated, PM isn't on my mind as a Champion Chaser. I adore Paul Nicholls, he's superb - one of the things that make him so good though is the placing of his horses, and DDC will win races around the festival, rather than 'at it'. Saint Calvados destroyed him by 22L before the Arkle and SC was 50/1, when DDC is 40/1?! What an absolute rick in the market that was!
Gods Own/Special Tiara/Politilogue 50/1 - I really like all three of horses in general terms. ST was lucky Douvan didn't fire on the day, but did well to hold off Fox Norton. That was definitely his day in the sun though, too long in the tootrh to consider. God's Own also has his best days behind him and will be 11 this time around. Politilogue has "the perfect" season last time around before getting beatn 4L by Altior on his reapperance then 23L in the CC - you'd assume he goes for the Ryanair, as he beat Min over 2m4f at Aintree. None of these 3 will be winning the Champion Chase
Brain Power/Cadmium/San Benedeto 66/1 - There isn't much to gain in knocking chances of 66/1 shots, but I haven't been tempted by any of these 3 at those odds. Brain Power needs to brush up the jumping and has mountains to find with Altior. Cadmium will need to take a huge leap next time out to get on my radar for this race and San Benedeto just won't ever be a Grade 1 horse on merit.
Ozzie The Oscar 100/1 - Placed in a county hurdle at 50/1 and was fancied to win at Exeter when God's Own battled well against him. He wouldn't be the worst 100/1 shot in the world but he'd probably be that price on the day if he ran!
No additional bets tonight
Its so tricky this race. Unless you've smashed Altior at a short price without nrnb which I can't do.
They've gone massively overboard with st calvados now in the market. And then barely touched footpad in return which is annoying.
You'd have to think if Altior and footpad are sound min dosent run being priced the way he is by the boys in the know.
Sceau royal I can see that angle. But imo if footpad and Altior are sound your playing for the 3rd place and I only like backing ew with some sort of chance of winning.