Ryanair Chase 2018

[Jonnymac05]

Please can we try and keep this forum a pleasant place to exchange views.

We can have different views but let's (try) not have cheap digs at fellow contributors; or trainers, jockeys and owners. It doesn't help anyone.

Thanks

Here Here.

Its why its the best forum around, there is no backbiting at each other.

 

[Mistycat1970]

I see the Tizzard's have managed to talk some sense into Mrs. Bishop. Can't believe I'm considering backing a 12 year old for this race but Cue Cards run behind Waiting Patiently at Ascot really surprised & impressed me. Conditions favoured WP that day and with his connections not likely to risk him on better ground i think at 12/1 Cue Card is well worth an e/w punt. Un De Sceaux could find one too good for him on good ground. Think il take a chance that it might be CC.

Would be nice to see him win a big race and get the retirement he deserves...

Sorry but it seems every year the cue card followers come out and convince themselves that this is the horses year, I'd be surprised if it will place in the Ryanair and amazed if it wins, this race could cut up badly and uds price of 5-2 could be more like 6-4 on the day especially with the ground no better than good to sort, a rock solid favourite in my book

 

[Istabraq]

I get irritated when horses like Cue Card, who has been an absolute star of the game for many years, has his form crabbed.
Prior to his 2 'Fs' he won a bumper, a Ryanair (probably by a distance further than any horse ever has), finished runner up in his Arkle (to Sprinter Sacre) and was 4th in a Supreme.

There's only a couple of races I could ever consider backing a 12yo in and the Ryanair certainly isn't one of them, but he retains his form, ran Waiting Patiently close at Ascot and comes here with a chance.
A Cue Card win would certainly bring the house down....

 

[Coneygme]

Sorry but it seems every year the cue card followers come out and convince themselves that this is the horses year, I'd be surprised if it will place in the Ryanair and amazed if it wins, this race could cut up badly and uds price of 5-2 could be more like 6-4 on the day especially with the ground no better than good to sort, a rock solid favourite in my book

I'm a huge UDS fan but I could never describe him as rock solid. I'm delighted to see CC in this; the right decision IMHO. Would love to see him win it but I shan't be backing him.

 

[SeanRock]

Sorry but it seems every year the cue card followers come out and convince themselves that this is the horses year, I'd be surprised if it will place in the Ryanair and amazed if it wins, this race could cut up badly and uds price of 5-2 could be more like 6-4 on the day especially with the ground no better than good to sort, a rock solid favourite in my book

No sentiment from me at all tbh. You can’t argue with the form of his 2nd place at Ascot to a very talented horse. He ran very well there in a truely run race and showed plenty of his old zest. He has every chance of running into a place on decent ground. UDS wasn’t overly impressive at all in the Clarance House in his favored conditions. I’m happy to take him on.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Cloudy Dream looks interesting now in this, second in last years Arkle, second twice this season to Gold cup contenders so stamina not an issue. I believe he's expected to be better on spring ground and could be a worthy substitute for WP, who the stable seem more than happy to keep fresh for Aintree, maybe they think CD has a better than the odds chance, I've had punt ew at 14's with 365, I also think a battle up front between CC and UDS could set he race up nicely

 

[FlagshipUberalles]

No sentiment from me at all tbh. You can’t argue with the form of his 2nd place at Ascot to a very talented horse. He ran very well there in a truely run race and showed plenty of his old zest. He has every chance of running into a place on decent ground. UDS wasn’t overly impressive at all in the Clarance House in his favored conditions. I’m happy to take him on.

Would you be worried that CC had a very hard race at Ascot and it may have left a mark?

 

[SeanRock]

Would you be worried that CC had a very hard race at Ascot and it may have left a mark?

He’s been campaigned quite lightly this season and he had a nice break before the Ascot Chase so if anything I’d be expecting him to come on a little for it. It will have been almost 4 weeks prior to the Ryanair.

 

[Kevloaf]

Cloudy Dream looks interesting now in this, second in last years Arkle, second twice this season to Gold cup contenders so stamina not an issue. I believe he's expected to be better on spring ground and could be a worthy substitute for WP, who the stable seem more than happy to keep fresh for Aintree, maybe they think CD has a better than the odds chance, I've had punt ew at 14's with 365, I also think a battle up front between CC and UDS could set he race up nicely

My feelings on Cloudy Dream are that he'd need to have it won before getting in a battle. I think the race will be "set up" perhaps however I'm not sure the horses in front will stop ready for the closers.... I ithkn it'll be a test of stamina and that isn't Cloudy Dreams strength to me... he's not a stayer like they hoped?

He could run in to a place but I think he'll be picking up ;pieces late to place rather than to get near whoever the winner is.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

My feelings on Cloudy Dream are that he'd need to have it won before getting in a battle. I think the race will be "set up" perhaps however I'm not sure the horses in front will stop ready for the closers.... I ithkn it'll be a test of stamina and that isn't Cloudy Dreams strength to me... he's not a stayer like they hoped?

He could run in to a place but I think he'll be picking up ;pieces late to place rather than to get near whoever the winner is.

Good answer Kev, I just take the view that he's been outstayed over longer trips on soft/heavy going, he was still travelling at the 2m 4f point, that suggests to me that this race run over what could be his optimum trip on better ground may well see him in a different light. I haven't gone mad, and I have a decent double involving UDS, he looks worthy of a small ew

 

[Kevloaf]

Feel like there is some momentum behind Balko Des Flos and the horse is going to become the sexy tip as the "each way" play in the race. Not really had much of a mention on the forum from what I can remember. I've got 1.5 pts e/w at 14/1 but that wouldn't be a winning overall return so not one I've REALLY focused on.

Andy Holding on OC has put him up today at 10/1....

The big race on day three, The Ryanair Chase, was won in tremendous fashion by Un De Scaeux last season and he’s done nothing in two starts this campaign to suggest he won’t go very close to retaining his crown. That said, last year’s race rather fell apart with second favourite, Empire Of Dirt, running way below par and with the subsequent form of the beaten horses such as Sub Lieutenant and Josses Hill, questionable to say the least, Willie Mullins’ 10-year-old is likely to have far more on his plate this time around. One of his main threats is likely to stem from fellow Irish raider, BALKO DES FLOS (best price 10-1), and there are many reason to believe Henry De Bromhead’s inmate can give the favourite plenty to think about.

Firstly, he was still going really well when taking an uncharacteristic tumble at the fence at the top of the hill in last year’s JLT and if you compared his sectional time of 1.56.9 from the one in front of the stands to the point where he fell, to the 1.57.0 of Un De Sceaux when he touched down at the very same fence an hour later on the same card, he clearly was set to run a big race. Since that untimely blow, the son of Balko has continued on an upward curve and his victory in the ultra-competitive Galway Plate backed up the view that he’s a useful performer when faced with a strong-run event on decent ground. Unfortunately, the seven-year-old hasn’t had his conditions in three starts so far this Winter, but at the same time, he certainly hasn’t been disgraced - as his latest effort in the Grade 1 Christmas Chase testifies. Although he eventually got outstayed by proven three-miler Road To Respect in the climb to the line, it should be pointed out that he travelled like the best horse in the race for nine tenths of the journey and had many top-class chasers such as Sizing John, Yorkhill, Outlander and Minella Rocco all flat to the boards rounding the home turn.

Rested since, presumable this race has been his number one target all season representing a firm that somehow has yet to win their own race since its inception 2005, and if he gets somewhere near good ground on the day, it’s hard to see this talented young chaser not going close and, as a result, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at his current odds with doubts about quite a few towards the top end of the market.

 

[Birds Nest]

Good answer Kev, I just take the view that he's been outstayed over longer trips on soft/heavy going, he was still travelling at the 2m 4f point, that suggests to me that this race run over what could be his optimum trip on better ground may well see him in a different light. I haven't gone mad, and I have a decent double involving UDS, he looks worthy of a small ew

He breaks all the rules for me as an EW bet, as i dont think he can win this but is almost certainly going to take one of the places, against my better judgment i had him EW last year and i've being backing him this year to place too. Trainer has stated better ground is his preference and for a horse thats never finished out of the top 3 in his career and is generally dismissed by most he is a good place shout if your prepared put your money on a horse that probably won't win...But i can also understand peoples negatives about him too..

 

[Mistycat1970]

Not crabbing cue card but people saying he would of won a gold cup when fell 3 out two years ago is one example of people going overboard, granted it was a decent run last time but then you have to forgive several below par runs before that? Just think people see cc through rose tinted glasses and expect it to keep its form from years ago, I can see uds going off around 6-4 and grinding it out

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Not crabbing cue card but people saying he would of won a gold cup when fell 3 out two years ago is one example of people going overboard

Im not sure anyone on here has ever said have they?

 

[Folski]

Feel like there is some momentum behind Balko Des Flos and the horse is going to become the sexy tip as the "each way" play in the race. Not really had much of a mention on the forum from what I can remember. I've got 1.5 pts e/w at 14/1 but that wouldn't be a winning overall return so not one I've REALLY focused on.

Andy Holding on OC has put him up today at 10/1....

The big race on day three, The Ryanair Chase, was won in tremendous fashion by Un De Scaeux last season and he’s done nothing in two starts this campaign to suggest he won’t go very close to retaining his crown. That said, last year’s race rather fell apart with second favourite, Empire Of Dirt, running way below par and with the subsequent form of the beaten horses such as Sub Lieutenant and Josses Hill, questionable to say the least, Willie Mullins’ 10-year-old is likely to have far more on his plate this time around. One of his main threats is likely to stem from fellow Irish raider, BALKO DES FLOS (best price 10-1), and there are many reason to believe Henry De Bromhead’s inmate can give the favourite plenty to think about.

Firstly, he was still going really well when taking an uncharacteristic tumble at the fence at the top of the hill in last year’s JLT and if you compared his sectional time of 1.56.9 from the one in front of the stands to the point where he fell, to the 1.57.0 of Un De Sceaux when he touched down at the very same fence an hour later on the same card, he clearly was set to run a big race. Since that untimely blow, the son of Balko has continued on an upward curve and his victory in the ultra-competitive Galway Plate backed up the view that he’s a useful performer when faced with a strong-run event on decent ground. Unfortunately, the seven-year-old hasn’t had his conditions in three starts so far this Winter, but at the same time, he certainly hasn’t been disgraced - as his latest effort in the Grade 1 Christmas Chase testifies. Although he eventually got outstayed by proven three-miler Road To Respect in the climb to the line, it should be pointed out that he travelled like the best horse in the race for nine tenths of the journey and had many top-class chasers such as Sizing John, Yorkhill, Outlander and Minella Rocco all flat to the boards rounding the home turn.

Rested since, presumable this race has been his number one target all season representing a firm that somehow has yet to win their own race since its inception 2005, and if he gets somewhere near good ground on the day, it’s hard to see this talented young chaser not going close and, as a result, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at his current odds with doubts about quite a few towards the top end of the market.

Colm O'Connell (UDS Owner) mentioned him as the big worry if WP doesn't run.

 

[kinloch brae]

In the context of this race it doesn't really matter if he would have won that Gold Cup. His last run was good enough to win this race and he was a double figure price. It is about him reproducing that run but if he does Un De Sceaux needs to up his game and he is a much shorter price.

 

[Mistycat1970]

Not taking into account that cue card has fell on his last 2 visits to Cheltenham? I know who's my money would be on if both there at the last, racings all about opinions though, good luck with you're bets

 

[Robbante]

Balko Des Flos for me is pretty ground dependent (connections have said as much also). If it’s good ground I’ll cover him, will leave alone on soft. Won’t be backing Cue Card but wouldn’t begrudge him... at 12 years old it will be a monumental effort to beat Un De Sceaux if there’s give in the ground

 

[kinloch brae]

Feel like there is some momentum behind Balko Des Flos and the horse is going to become the sexy tip as the "each way" play in the race. Not really had much of a mention on the forum from what I can remember. I've got 1.5 pts e/w at 14/1 but that wouldn't be a winning overall return so not one I've REALLY focused on.

Andy Holding on OC has put him up today at 10/1....

The big race on day three, The Ryanair Chase, was won in tremendous fashion by Un De Scaeux last season and he’s done nothing in two starts this campaign to suggest he won’t go very close to retaining his crown. That said, last year’s race rather fell apart with second favourite, Empire Of Dirt, running way below par and with the subsequent form of the beaten horses such as Sub Lieutenant and Josses Hill, questionable to say the least, Willie Mullins’ 10-year-old is likely to have far more on his plate this time around. One of his main threats is likely to stem from fellow Irish raider, BALKO DES FLOS (best price 10-1), and there are many reason to believe Henry De Bromhead’s inmate can give the favourite plenty to think about.

Firstly, he was still going really well when taking an uncharacteristic tumble at the fence at the top of the hill in last year’s JLT and if you compared his sectional time of 1.56.9 from the one in front of the stands to the point where he fell, to the 1.57.0 of Un De Sceaux when he touched down at the very same fence an hour later on the same card, he clearly was set to run a big race. Since that untimely blow, the son of Balko has continued on an upward curve and his victory in the ultra-competitive Galway Plate backed up the view that he’s a useful performer when faced with a strong-run event on decent ground. Unfortunately, the seven-year-old hasn’t had his conditions in three starts so far this Winter, but at the same time, he certainly hasn’t been disgraced - as his latest effort in the Grade 1 Christmas Chase testifies. Although he eventually got outstayed by proven three-miler Road To Respect in the climb to the line, it should be pointed out that he travelled like the best horse in the race for nine tenths of the journey and had many top-class chasers such as Sizing John, Yorkhill, Outlander and Minella Rocco all flat to the boards rounding the home turn.

Rested since, presumable this race has been his number one target all season representing a firm that somehow has yet to win their own race since its inception 2005, and if he gets somewhere near good ground on the day, it’s hard to see this talented young chaser not going close and, as a result, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at his current odds with doubts about quite a few towards the top end of the market.

Didn't Pricewise put the horse up hence he is already a somewhat trimmed price before this guy has put it up?

I don't think either the JLT or the Ryanair were vintage renewals last year. Had a look back at the JLT and it looked as if Balko Des Flos over raced throughout and ended up taking an horrendous fall. It looked as if he was meeting it on a wrong stride and seemingly he didn't have a clue what to do. You would hope he wouldn't remember that.

None of his next few runs shouted winning a Ryanair until his second to Road To Respect. He was 66/1. His form chance rests on whether you believe in the substance of that run and whether he can repeat it over shorter distance returning to a course where his previous experience wasn't great.

I think 8/1 looks pretty short.

 

[Robbante]

Un De Sceaux still a decent price for this at 9/4. Been against him all year til a few weeks ago, but really don’t see what beats him in this race now. Having just checked the latest weather forecast I can’t see it being genuine soft ground so don’t think Waiting Patiently will run (the only danger I can see). I was guilty of crabbing his form based on last year’s win (couple of lengths ahead of sub lieutenant) but that was a freak race the way he pulled himself to the front so early. To win under those circumstances shows how much he must have in the tank, and assuming he settles better this year, and the likelihood of slightly more give in the ground, I would say he’ll put in a better performance. He’s underpinning any multiples for me at this stage