RSA Chase 2019

[jonthehammer]

And it's got no chance

Santini ?

By the way PP have cocked up on Santini. He’s 7/1 generally for This but PP going 7s any race. They also gave me a Point boost to 8s

 

[Quevega]

Santini ?

By the way PP have cocked up on Santini. He’s 7/1 generally for This but PP going 7s any race. They also gave me a Point boost to 8s

not just Santini, never worried about one horse especially this far out, just think theres many others gonna prove better than her

 

[Innoko]

Mares rarely run in this and the last winner was 1995.

 

[Quevega]

not just Santini, never worried about one horse especially this far out, just think theres many others gonna prove better than her

wouldn't discount her for four miler though,
The amateur jockey the trainer has used McParlan did well with Missed approach two years running.
can't see her priced up for that but think it would suit and she'd be one of highest rated with allowance.
Ms Parfois nearly pulled it off last year, off a lower rating

 

[billymag]

She needs a flat track, id of thought they will take a shot at Aintree

 

[Scooby91]

LBAR now 14s for this after impressive performance today

She was good it would either be this or the jlt, she's far too strong a traveller for the 4 miler as we saw in the mares hurdle where she'd have been placed. (but for clouting the last and losing all momentum) That's very good form going into novice chase company. I won't be doubting her at all.

 

[Kevloaf]

She was good it would either be this or the jlt, she's far too strong a traveller for the 4 miler as we saw in the mares hurdle where she'd have been placed. (but for clouting the last and losing all momentum) That's very good form going into novice chase company. I won't be doubting her at all.

She'll ultimately come up short in any race against the boys in my opinion. She isn't a standout mare, she's a very good and likeable mare... plenty of races she'll do well in but I wouldn't have a win bet on her.

 

[Scooby91]

She'll ultimately come up short in any race against the boys in my opinion. She isn't a standout mare, she's a very good and likeable mare... plenty of races she'll do well in but I wouldn't have a win bet on her.

Who's the standout novices 2 1/2m? she's just beat the one convincingly that alot of people were backing.

 

[Kevloaf]

Who's the standout novices 2 1/2m? she's just beat the one convincingly that alot of people were backing.

That isn't how it works... the 'standouts' haven't run yet.

People backing Loistintranslation aren't expecting him to be at his best today are they?

I'd consider all of her back form and profile - I'd happily lay 14/1 for her to win any race at all at Cheltenham. (Unless they make a Mares Chase over 2m4f this season and I'd not bother laying it)

 

[JackieMoon33]

I’ve backed Lostintranslation and although I’d much rather he’d have won, I’m not giving up just yet either. He progressed as the season went on last year and I don’t think he’s the first horse to have an average debut this season, partly due to the weather. La Bague Au Roi on the other hand always goes well fresh and is certainly no mug.

 

[Scooby91]

That isn't how it works... the 'standouts' haven't run yet.

People backing Loistintranslation aren't expecting him to be at his best today are they?

I'd consider all of her back form and profile - I'd happily lay 14/1 for her to win any race at all at Cheltenham. (Unless they make a Mares Chase over 2m4f this season and I'd not bother laying it)

She's not 14/1 that was the 1st one to introduce her to the market. Tizzard dosent leave them spare of work. I genuinely don't know who the standout novices for the JLT are who haven't ran yet. Black op who's very beatable. Claimantakinforgan (ran) who I like but nobody else would have said he's a standout I wouldn't have thought. Getabird is 2nd in the betting. I'll be suprised if he's not operating over 2m . Messire des obeaux (should be 50s) he's no chance imo and he's a 3 miler anyway. Then you've got lostintranlation whos shes just beat, on the blind side (could be good) vision des flos(ran/ fell) And voix de reve etc...

I'm not backing her but
She has a credible chance.

 

[Scooby91]

I’ve backed Lostintranslation and although I’d much rather he’d have won, I’m not giving up just yet either. He progressed as the season went on last year and I don’t think he’s the first horse to have an average debut this season, partly due to the weather. La Bague Au Roi on the other hand always goes well fresh and is certainly no mug.

Hed have bolted up last year against dynamite dollars on debut but for a horrendous mistake at the last where he was lucky to stay up.
I certainly wouldn't give up, hes a nice horse, he ran very credibly., they might even go different races. But a month down the line have that race again id be suprised if she diddnt beat him the same. My only point is I think she's a valid contender for the big races

 

[Kevloaf]

She's not 14/1 that was the 1st one to introduce her to the market. Tizzard dosent leave them spare of work. I genuinely don't know who the standout novices for the JLT are who haven't ran yet. Black op who's very beatable. Claimantakinforgan (ran) who I like but nobody else would have said he's a standout I wouldn't have thought. Getabird is 2nd in the betting. I'll be suprised if he's not operating over 2m . Messire des obeaux (should be 50s) he's no chance imo and he's a 3 miler anyway. Then you've got lostintranlation whos shes just beat, on the blind side (could be good) vision des flos(ran/ fell) And voix de reve etc...

I'm not backing her but
She has a credible chance.

Mullins.

Voix du reve
Cilaos emery (2m to me)
Getabird
Draconien
Coquin mans
Fabulous saga (Probably needs a drop in trip)
Next destination ( likely 3 miler)
Robin des foret (not good enough)
Bleu berry ?
Duc des genievre?

Plenty from your own mind there?

La Bague Au Roi won't be winning the JLT or RSA - she's not good enough.

If she ends up being better than Lostintranslation, then Lostintranslation won't be winning a JLT or RSA either.

 

[Scooby91]

Plenty from your own mind there?

La Bague Au Roi won't be winning the JLT or RSA - she's not good enough.

If she ends up being better than Lostintranslation, then Lostintranslation won't be winning a JLT or RSA either.

Mullins.*

Voix du reve
Cilaos emery (2m to me)
Getabird*
Draconien*
Coquin mans
Fabulous saga (Probably needs a drop in trip)*
Next destination ( likely 3 miler)
Robin des foret (not good enough)
Bleu berry ?
Duc des genievre?

Don't rate any of them personally apart from getabird/ cilaos emery (who in my mind are 2 milers)

And next destination (3 miler)

 

[Quevega]

If I may butt in. And repeat myself from earlier.
La Bague Au Roi has no chance in the JLT or RSA,
Gordon & Willie have at least half a dozen who will prove better, And then there's the other Irish Trainers on top of that. Not to mention Mr Henderson over here.
If they insist on going to cheltenham then she would have a better chance in the four miler IMO as the big gun trainers will tend not to send there strongest horses to that race.
She would have a good proven amateur jockey available I think - and the travelling thing can only ever be a positive, irrespective of the distance IMO. If you're of the opinion she won't relax and is a bit keen then it'll cost her over any distance, the trainer should be able to deal with that anyhow.

 

[Scooby91]

If I may butt in. And repeat myself from earlier.
La Bague Au Roi has no chance in the JLT or RSA,
Gordon & Willie have at least half a dozen who will prove better, And then there's the other Irish Trainers on top of that. Not to mention Mr Henderson over here.
If they insist on going to cheltenham then she would have a better chance in the four miler IMO as the big gun trainers will tend not to send there strongest horses to that race.
She would have a good proven amateur jockey available I think - and the travelling thing can only ever be a positive, irrespective of the distance IMO. If you're of the opinion she won't relax and is a bit keen then it'll cost her over any distance, the trainer should be able to deal with that anyhow.

Its not particularly that she won't relax it's that she goes a clip that's her advantage. She's a huge stride and a cruising speed. No way she'll ever be seen over 4miles.

I'll agree to disagree I don't see all Gordon's and willies jlt horses.

 

[Quevega]

Its not particularly that she won't relax it's that she goes a clip that's her advantage. She's a huge stride and a cruising speed. No way she'll ever be seen over 4miles.

I'll agree to disagree I don't see all Gordon's and willies jlt horses.

It is interesting that you are happy to dismiss (unless 20-1) a thoroughly unexposed mare on the same rating, trained by a master trainer. Aiming for a race with few real contenders, and these are more likely to dwindle than increase.

But will stick up for the merits of a thoroughly exposed (unless she proves a marvel over fences) mare, trained by Warren Greatrex.
I assume she's a similar price in the races she's quoted for at the festival. And these are far more competitive.

You may be right with the trip subject, just my thoughts on it.

 

[Scooby91]

It is interesting that you are happy to dismiss (unless 20-1) a thoroughly unexposed mare on the same rating, trained by a master trainer. Aiming for a race with few real contenders, and these are more likely to dwindle than increase.

But will stick up for the merits of a thoroughly exposed (unless she proves a marvel over fences) mare, trained by Warren Greatrex.
I assume she's a similar price in the races she's quoted for at the festival. And these are far more competitive.

You may be right with the trip subject, just my thoughts on it.

Because 1 is a (154) now 152 rated hurdler with a mares allowance of 7 pounds running against last year's novices of which is scarse in the 2 1/2 division. Can la bague au roi beat Black op over fences, she wouldnt be priced up fav but of course she can. Shes a huge chasing mare and The form book says she can.

And the other has beat absolutely nothing and running against the very best 2 mile hurdlers in the land the likes the horses she's been up against would get lapped by.
Can laurina beat buveur dair over 2 miles ....
Not a clue but that is an unbelievable step up in class. Nothing in the form book says she can


There's far more chance la bague au roi can beat black op over fences which we might see soon.
Than laurina beating buveur dair over hurdles.


I don't think you realise just how good the likes of
buveur dair are compared to cap soleil who's not even a 2 miler she just got her ground, ( which shows how poor the lot beind her were) . or alletrix / lackeneen leader.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

La Bague Au Roi is a very likeable mare, however I've found she seems to struggle to carry on her form post Christmas.

Pre-Xmas: 11111111
Post-Xmas: 17761177

In particular performs very poorly around Cheltenham, speaking from a man who backed her quite heavily each-way for the Mares last season. I'm not sure if it's the atmosphere or the bigger fields that rev her up but she seems to blow her chance - and when you include Aintree figures read 7767

It was a nice round of jumping today though

 

[Scooby91]

I think the best thing to do is agree that she's no chance add her to the exchange and I'm sure someone will match me at 50.0 for the JLT.